NFL: Kansas City Chiefs Thread
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CBS Sports mock published fresh today: Chiefs trade up to 25 and draft OT Dawand Jones from Ohio State.
PFF Mock: Chiefs stay put at 31 and take Utah TE Dalton Kincaid.
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2023 NFL Three-Round Mock Draft: Carolina Panthers select QB C.J. Stroud, Indianapolis Colts snag QB Anthony Richardson | NFL Draft | PFF
With the first wave of free agency almost over, Trevor Sikkema mocks three rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft, taking updated team needs into account. C.J. Stroud goes No. 1 overall to the Carolina Panthers, while Bijan Robinson heads to the Cowboys at No. 26.
You don't know what you are talking about.
Pressures is an absolutely moribund stat to gauge a lineman by. It would be like saying a basketball player is "great" because he scores 25 a game while discounting the fact he takes 25 shots to get there.
There is a GARGANTUAN difference in blocking the QBs blindside, hence why it's considered a premium position. Brown also faced more 1 on 1 blocks (no double team help) than almost any player in the league. He had a better pass block win rate, a stat that is specifically geared toward rating that player on the specific play, rather than pressures which can be largely predicated on how long the QB holds the ball. Trevor Lawrence was one of the quickest in the league at getting rid of the ball, being behind Joe Burrow and Brady for full time starters. Mahomes was near the top and especially for elite QBs, with only Lamar Jackson holding the ball longer. Part of that is on Mahomes for trying to create and part of that is on the system. As a unit the Chiefs had the BEST pass block win rate. This is impressive (and important) as they have a QB who holds the ball, an offense that tends to run slow developing plays (part of the reason Mahomes holds it so long), and a system that routinely utilizies minimal protection schemes.
Basically comparing an RTs stats to an LTs stats is like comparing apples and oranges. It's also easy to get duped as their are a lot that factors into those stats: how long the QB holds the ball, the protection schemes/sets. the play calling, your opponents, and single/double team numbers. Nobody is saying Brown is the best but he is more than adequate, as indicated by his pass and run block win % metrics (this can also be flawed due to single/double teams but still a far better metric than pressures). Our tackles also often face extremely wide rushes as the Chiefs are stout up the middle. This means they are often facing 1 on 1 speed rushes on the outside, which everyone will admit is Brown's weakness.
If evaluating which team got the better deal I think it's the Bengals in a landslide. They got the better performing player, and one that has the better pass and run block rate at the actual position he will be playing. And at 4 million AAV less, that's EXTREMELY good value, especially for an elite teams as cap management is crucial for long term success. Maybe the Chiefs did everything right, Brown overestimated his market value, and the damage was irreparable (after Brown didn't get what he thought he was worth). That's possible but the timing of Taylor's contract (announced before Brown's) is puzzling as it's hard to believe the Chiefs could be in competition, at that price, for Taylor's services while the Bengals could get Brown at that price.
Pressure rate is a garbage statistic.
Case in point (i'm not going to do the work for you) is Joe Burrow. The Bengals, as a unit, posted drastically reduced pressure numbers while Burrow's sack rate when down. It means the Bengals were better at blocking right? Wrong, as their pass block win rates were equally as pathetic as last year's. The biggest difference was Burrow got rid of the ball much quicker (2nd best in the league behind Brady), making it harder for teams to "pressure" him. It had absolutely nothing to do with how well the line performed.
Brown could play at the exact same level as this year and see drastic improvement in pressures. Same can be said for Taylor, who will likely yield more as Mahomes holds the ball more and he will be responsible for handling more single-team assignments.
I still don't get why they have to have a 1st rounder this draft class is as bad as they say it is. Who cares if the draft is in KC. If there is someone they really like then that's a different story.
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I don’t understand how anyone could have watched the Chiefs the last two years and not trust their ability to evaluate OL specifically, and their ability to construct a roster for short and long term success in general.
I don't think "trust" is really the issue here.
My particular responses are more gauged toward the "Brown had terrible metrics, just look at his pressures" when if one understands ANYTHING about that metric they'd know it's probably the LEAST indicative of perfomance of all the Oline metrics.
With that said, I don't see how one could look at the available metrics, the success of the unit in general, and Taylor's own questions of being able to play the LT position and not be puzzled based on the salary numbers and the timing of the signings. Based on available data I think it's hard to justify Taylor being 4 AAV better given he is a terrible (metrically) run blocker, a questionably better (if at all) pass protector, and one who did so at the "inferior" position. It's entirely possible the Chiefs faced some kind of bidding war for Taylor with Brown completely off the table. If not it's probably the most questionable move (on paper) they've made over the last couple of years.
The cap number is what really makes it stand out.
To me it’s all pretty simple. The Chiefs evaluated Taylor as the better tackle to make an investment in than Brown. Hence them signing Taylor instead of Brown, and the deal Taylor got worth 80 M compared to the 64 Brown received.
You obviously disagree with the Chiefs evaluation. I won’t pretend to be the expert on metrics that you are. Nor have I spent hours breaking down game film to compare the two. I just have full faith in the Chiefs staff given their track record.
Did you watch a lot of the Chiefs games? Because I watched everyone, included a couple of preseason games and Brown was the worst player on the line this past season. The stats you keep posting are saying I am missing something, but you can only take stats so far, sometimes you have to trust what your eyes are telling you.
Brown wanted to be one of the highest paid left tackle in the league, the Chief's offered him a very good deal last year and he turned that down. The feeling I get is that he had burned enough bridges in KC and they were looking to move on from him.
Taylor is younger, the Chief's think he has more upside to him, and remember that Brown was a right tackle when he came to KC until he made the switch over to the left side.
Earlier you said that the Bengals line improved a lot sack wise over the year before, they moved from 51 sacks to 41 sacks, Mahomes was sacked 26 times for a frame of reference. So even with a quicker release, which is very debatable, I looked at stats that showed Mahomes towards the top for that stat and Burrows towards the middle, he was sacked 15 less times over the season.
Rumors that Chiefs have talked to Cardinals about Hopkins. Wonder how serious they discussions are? Sounds like a lot of the other teams have said they aren't interested. So Cardinals might not be getting the offers they hoped.
Exactly, Creed Humphrey in the 2nd round and Trey Smith in the 6th round in 2021 are both solid starters at C and RG. They drafted Niang in the 3rd round in 2020 and he's been a solid depth piece and possibly starter at RT if they put Tayler at LT.
Kansas City Chiefs All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Just look at all the hits they had in the past 3-4 years of drafts. 2022 every pick except for Kinnard appeared in 11-17 games, many of them wound up in the starting lineup. 4 of their 6 2021 picks have played 33 or 34 games, 2020 5 of the 6 have played significantly too. They are finding quality depth and even starters in the draft in rounds 4-7 even. They are basically doing what the Patriots did during Brady's prime which is drafting smart then trading or moving on from guys when they get too expensive and investing in retaining the ones they can't replace as easy.
I would love Hopkins in Kansas City but it call comes down to compensation, both his and what we have to trade. If they make it look like the Brandin Cooks to Dallas trade sign me up. Houston is paying some of Cooks' 2023 salary and the compensation was a late round pick. I would rather go Hopkins, a proven vet hungry for a ring, over a rookie in the draft.
Depending upon how far he drops, I wouldn't mind taking a flier on USC OL Andrew Vorhees. Tore his ACL during the NFL Combine so stock will drop. I don't know what his Draft projections were before the injury but if he was invited to the Combine he has to be decent, right?
