* Hoiberg Watch 2015: Wednesday, May 27 Thread

[IAStubborn]

Scenario A: ISU retains Hoiberg, secures commitment from Bielfeldt, and banks another scholarship for a mid year transfer.

Scenario B: Hoiberg (and Henry) leaves for the NBA, ISU hires Hornacek, he hires Grayer, ISU becomes front runner for Miles Bridges, retains Otzelberger, and ISU keeps uptempo system.

Scenario C: Hoiberg (and Henry) leaves for the NBA, ISU either cannot or chooses not to lure Hornacek away from the Suns, and promotes Otzelberger to head coach, and ISU keeps uptempo system.

These seem to be the 3 most likely scenarios, which one would you prefer? Maybe I'm adding a bit too much to Scenario B.

I would add D:
ISU hires an aging transition coach like Larry Brown to ease Otz into the role (teaching him how to drive) before handing him the keys to the Ferrari (ISU's highest or second highest rated preseason team ever).

I would also say A has the caveat we keep hoiberg for a year or 2 max.

 

[carvers4math]

Dumb Bulls would be better off (1) keeping Thibs or (2) "trading" him for Hornacek. I think Hornacek would be an easier sell to their fans than Hoiberg.

 

[EatemupISU]

At this point, if we could land Horny, does anyone think it might actually be better for Fred to leave?

Yes. At this point, I would choose a settled future with Hornacek at ISU (with the ability to recruit unhindered) over the one more year we would have with Fred (and the resulting recruiting crater) if he comes back.

 

[CyCy]

Was just looking at a Phoenix Suns article and they mentioned player insubordination issues that Hornacek faced this year. Just curious if anybody knew the details.

 

[clone136]

I'll absolutely take a coach that the NBA is going to want.

Then we get to have another meltdown in three years?

 

[cloneteach]

Otz is actually older than Fred was when he got the ISU job. Otz also has more coaching experience than Fred had. Fred had none.

One additional point...Otz is not Fred

 

[erikbj]

I would assume at this point Fred only comes back if he signs an new agreement that basically ensures he is here another 5 years. As much as everyone loves Fred, I think we are all getting tired of this drama every year. If he wants to the NBA in the next 12 months, just go now - lets try to get Horny and lock up the future recruits while making a final 4 run this year.

If Fred says, nope I want to stay at ISU and to show you how much i signed a new contract with a $5MM buyout. Lets keep the party rolling.

If Fred stays with no new agreement, we will have the same issues next year as we do now and we won't have a top 10 roster.

 

[LindenCy]

Otz is actually older than Fred was when he got the ISU job. Otz also has more coaching experience than Fred had. Fred had none.

So do a lot of assistants, but there were/are intangibles with Hoiberg so I think the Otz/Hoiberg comparisons aren't useful. They sound like people trying to sell Otz to the fanbase out of a bad situation.

I think Otz might end up being a great coach, but I don't know that I want to hand him the keys to the Mercedes yet.

 

[Dandy]

I would assume at this point Fred only comes back if he signs an new agreement that basically ensures he is here another 5 years. As much as everyone loves Fred, I think we are all getting tired of this drama every year. If he wants to the NBA in the next 12 months, just go now - lets try to get Horny and lock up the future recruits while making a final 4 run this year.

If Fred says, nope I want to stay at ISU and to show you how much i signed a new contract with a $5MM buyout. Lets keep the party rolling.

If Fred stays with no new agreement, we will have the same issues next year as we do now and we won't have a top 10 roster.

Someone (CW, Hines) noted in an earlier blog post that not only would CFH not want to sign something like this but JP wouldn't even propose something like this to CFH in fear of making him angry.

 

[cloneteach]

I would assume at this point Fred only comes back if he signs an new agreement that basically ensures he is here another 5 years. As much as everyone loves Fred, I think we are all getting tired of this drama every year. If he wants to the NBA in the next 12 months, just go now - lets try to get Horny and lock up the future recruits while making a final 4 run this year.

If Fred says, nope I want to stay at ISU and to show you how much i signed a new contract with a $5MM buyout. Lets keep the party rolling.

If Fred stays with no new agreement, we will have the same issues next year as we do now and we won't have a top 10 roster.

We aren't going to have a top 10 roster next year regardless. Why don't we want Fred to coach the team that has the best chance to do something special in a long time?

If asked would you take 5 years of mediocrity for one FF/NC, I would guess most fans would choose the FF/NC. Fred coaching the team gives the best chance at advancing to the FF/NC.

 

[LindenCy]

One additional point...Otz is not Fred

Looks like cloneteach put it a little more succinctly than I did. :smile:

 

[Dandy]

So do a lot of assistants, but there were/are intangibles with Hoiberg so I think the Otz/Hoiberg comparisons aren't useful. They sound like people trying to sell Otz to the fanbase out of a bad situation.

I think Otz might end up being a great coach, but I don't know that I want to hand him the keys to the Mercedes yet.

Said Mercedes is on a one year lease though. We aren't anything close to a 2016-17 Mercedes at this point.

 

[LindenCy]

Then we get to have another meltdown in three years?

Better than the meltdown after another 14-17 season.

 

[LindenCy]

Said Mercedes is on a one year lease though. We aren't anything close to a 2016-17 Mercedes at this point.

So right now we have a Yugo once the lease is up? :smile:

 

[CyStalker]

Was just looking at a Phoenix Suns article and they mentioned player insubordination issues that Hornacek faced this year. Just curious if anybody knew the details.

Morris twins????

http://heatwaved.com/2015/04/26/phoenix-suns-are-stuck-with-morris-brothers-for-now/

 

[Stormin]

One additional point...Otz is not Fred

Otz will be 38 years old in September. Otz has been an assistant coach for a Power 5 Conference school for 9 years. Including being the Associate Head Coach at Iowa State for 3 years. Jay Bilas has stated that Otz is one of the top head coaching candidates in America.

Not advocating that we hire Otz. But attempts to portray him as someone who is too young and inexperienced is totally inaccurate.

 

[CycloneErik]

So do a lot of assistants, but there were/are intangibles with Hoiberg so I think the Otz/Hoiberg comparisons aren't useful. They sound like people trying to sell Otz to the fanbase out of a bad situation.

I think Otz might end up being a great coach, but I don't know that I want to hand him the keys to the Mercedes yet.

Basically, Fred Hoiberg is an unusually gifted human being who succeeds at everything he does.
People want to make that comparison to TJ, but there's no comparison there. One is just starting to get interviews with low mid-majors, the other is in demand by the NBA because he excels at everything he does.

 

[LindenCy]

Otz will be 38 years old in September. Otz has been an assistant coach for a Power 5 Conference school for 9 years. Including being the Associate Head Coach at Iowa State for 3 years. Jay Bilas has stated that Otz is one of the top head coaching candidates in America.

Not advocating that we hire Otz. But attempts to portray him as someone who is too young and inexperienced is totally inaccurate.

Yeah, I agree. I think Otz could work out, I just think it seems like a big unknown.

 

[EatemupISU]

If asked would you take 5 years of mediocrity for one FF/NC, I would guess most fans would choose the FF/NC. Fred coaching the team gives the best chance at advancing to the FF/NC.

Another quality coach (like Hornacek) could also take next year's team to the Final Four. When you get to March, it's all a crapshoot. We thought Fred would take us to at least the Sweet Sixteen this year...then UAB.

Who's to say that this current team hasn't peaked under Hoiberg and a fresh approach wouldn't help Georges and company take the next step in their senior year? The point is no one knows, and we shouldn't hope to mortgage our future on the thinking that "Fred Stays" = "Final Four in 2016".

 

[cycloneworld]

Otz will be 38 years old in September. Otz has been an assistant coach for a Power 5 Conference school for 9 years. Including being the Associate Head Coach at Iowa State for 3 years. Jay Bilas has stated that Otz is one of the top head coaching candidates in America.

Not advocating that we hire Otz. But attempts to portray him as someone who is too young and inexperienced is totally inaccurate.

Then how come he can't get a job at a mid-major?

How often to assistants get Power 5 jobs as their first gig? And how often do those inherit a Top 10 team? I'd say rarely, if ever.

Otz is the definition of inexperienced. He has zero experience leading a program. And the Hoiberg example doesn't hold water here because we are in a night-and-day different time than when Hoiberg was hired. We basically had nothing to lose back then. We have everything that Fred built to lose now. If there are established head coaches that are interested in the job, I'd much rather go that route than take the unknown of TJ. Especially since TJ will likely continue to be on the staff.