I like Prohm. I hope he succeeds. But the "roster cliff" coming up worries me.
Fred left a team that was loaded for Year One and, rather unintentionally I think, pretty good for Year Two. A core of Monte Morris (most figured he was gone after last year), Naz Mitrou-Long (ditto), Matt Thomas (previously thought a bust, now a hugely important and versatile asset), and Deonte Burton (recruited under the Fred regime, mercurial as a player, but extremely talented nonetheless) is better than 90%+ of the teams in the country. We thought Monte was gone, Naz would be gone, Matt wasn't much worth having in the Big 12, and Burton was an unknown.
So this is still very much an echo of the Hoiberg era. Looking at our scholarship chart for next year, though, I do have to have some concerns...
PG) Jackson
SG) Long
SF) Babb
PF) Young
C) Carter, Kasongo, Lard
That's it. That's a rough starting lineup for next year.
Jackson has had a ton of hype as a "Mike Taylor" type, but you never quite know what you get with a JUCO at point guard. Babb has had some press conference hype, as well, but wasn't particularly productive as a freshman at Arkansas, even if it sounds like they were sad to see him go. Long, Young, and Lard were all in the ~150 range with upside potential, but they're all going to be young and raw. None were on the level of 50-100 national rankings of Niang, Morris, Thomas, and the key high school players recruited during that era. Carter didn't impress during his freshman year, despite ample playing time available in the post, and Kasongo has a big body but is on his third school in as many years and has never put up intense numbers.
Yes yes, pessimist me, and some of these guys are going to be better than the above, but some of them are going to be worse, too.
I admire the job that the staff did in pulling together a trio of good freshmen, Jackson, Malou, and "instant experience" in the front court with Holden and Bowie for next year. Considering the circumstances and roster needs and the odd transition, they did well. However, considering...
-there's a ton of playing time to sell
-Hilton is awesome
-the conference is awesome
-the fans are awesome
-we're on national TV twice a week for months at at time
-the national media likes the program and speaks highly of it
-we make the NCAA tournament basically every year
-Georges and Abdel went in the draft
...we really should be getting some young talent.
Add in the fact that the "emergency class" from last year was mostly recruited by TJ... as was most of the good prep and high school talent that we have had on our roster for the past decade, with McD and Hoiberg and a distinct absence of such talent during the few years that TJ was in Seattle... well, save for Monte Morris, there haven't been many good ones in cardinal and gold that weren't here because of him. I know he had to leave and move on, but I really hope Prohm and the current staff can keep turning players up on this level without him.
I'm okay with us having a down year, where we are super young but super talented, play fast and have fun, and Jackson scores a ton and is 1st/2nd all-conference even if we don't win many games or even make the NIT if it is clear that the guys we have, either freshman or JUCOs previously unused to Big 12 ball, are going to bring it the next year, even more the case if we have some good transfers coming off a redshirt to join them. I would like things to "feel" like they did during Diante Garrett's senior year that, even if we didn't win much, the program was headed in the right direction and fundamentally solid on the formation of the roster.
Prohm's got that level of rebuild job coming almost, at least in terms of roster though not in terms of program reputation, thankfully. Another something like a Cameron Payne to lead us out of that transition would be real nice there.
I'll wait to see what we have, but it's hard not seeing us struggle right now. I just want the conditions around where I don't think struggling is going to become a new normal. :/