ESPN Preseason Rankings...
- Thread starter Divided Sky
- Start date
I am excited about the MBB season for sure...but I have no idea what to expect! The hype around this message board for this team is going to be difficult to live up to. That said...if all things go well (as most teams could say) we just might get back to the dance. But at the same time...we were a last place team in our league just a year ago! Lots of different faces...lots of faith in our coach...keep the fingers crossed!
C
CyBer
Guest
Yes. I truly believe it. With football being off next week and hoops officially starting, I am going to write a lot about this next week. But there are WAY too many questions surrounding this team to start talking NCAA Tournament just yet. Can that be the goal? Yes, as it should be. But to expect it is a bit much IMO.
Again, I'll elaborate a lot next week.
My main concern is toughness/rebounding. I'm not sure how this team is going to react when somebody gets at them.
Stay tuned!!!
Regardless, it should be a fun season. It's much more enjoyable for fans to go into every game with at the very least, a chance to win because you have the talent to do so. That wasn't really the case last year.
C
CyBer
Guest
C
CyBer
Guest
Yeah but the thing with those ratings is that he doesn't have any info to work with. So of course he is rating us low.
so this has nothing to do with espn. this is ken pomeroy, correct? his quant model gets better when he has current data. he doesn't have that now.
I would like to see the link to the espn rankings as well. Did a quick search and found nothing where they have us ranked #90 and Iowa #50.
I wouldn't read too much into the Pomeroy stuff at this point. He has nothing to work with. Khaal...You around? Please guide us...
Kenpom's computer model won't accurately model a team with the roster turnover like ISU well before games are played.
CycloneErik
Well-Known Member
It's not just on the message board. I've heard it from people that don't venture here and never would.
The ticket sales indicate that it's not just the message board. Fred and this team have people's hopes up. :yes:
KenPom and any other computer rankings system can only go off the data it has been given; last year's performances, mainly. With all of the new faces that ISU is expecting to contribute this season there is no way for a computer to have an accurate grasp over what ISU will look like, good or bad.
Even for the human polls it isn't easy, obviously. Questions at point guard and questions about the bigs defending and rebounding is a cause for pause.
In the end, its preseason rankings so who really cares? It can be interesting to look at and fun to read (especially if they pick ISU to finish well) but no objective human being would say that Iowa has more talent than ISU.
Lots of questions to be answered in the next few weeks.
Even for the human polls it isn't easy, obviously. Questions at point guard and questions about the bigs defending and rebounding is a cause for pause.
In the end, its preseason rankings so who really cares? It can be interesting to look at and fun to read (especially if they pick ISU to finish well) but no objective human being would say that Iowa has more talent than ISU.
Lots of questions to be answered in the next few weeks.
C
CyBer
Guest
A pile of transfers that have never played a D-1 game together.
Questions at point.
2nd year coach coming off last place big12 finish.
Surprised we made somebody's top100 list with those credentials.
Will Iowa even win 10 games this year? If so I think you could say they are making progress.
My opinion is that all preseason rankings are good for, is drawing viewers to watch certain games. All about tv ratings.
So now ESPN can market a game as "two top 15 teams, going head to head."
So now ESPN can market a game as "two top 15 teams, going head to head."
since people are usually too lazy to click on links and read stuff, i'm going to break the rules and cut and paste. all the explanations will be on college basketball prospectus, whenever that article posts.
11.03.11
The long-awaited pre-season ratings are here. There’s a write-up on the rating algorithm and some notable teams in College Basketball Prospectus, so you should check that out when it becomes available shortly. I’m not going to repeat that stuff here. Of course, you will get a lot of other great content in it as well.
One change this season involved the computation of the Pythagorean winning percentage. Calibration of last year’s predictions revealed that 10.25 is the best exponent to use for the purpose of the game probabilities. This should provide a more realistic forecast of end-of-season records now and especially as the games start and real data goes into the system. This does not affect the calculations of any other statistics.
Right now this results in a lot of conference records bunching up near .500. This will prompt your message board friends to say something like “There’s no way every team in the Pac-12 finishes with between 6 and 12 wins. LOL.” Substitute your own conference of choice in the quote. Of course that’s not how the teams will finish, but this is setting an expectation for each team on an individual basis, and not trying to predict the record of the conference champ, whoever that may be. Considering that the last preseason number one to go unbeaten in conference play was Duke in 1999, chances should be fairly low for even the best teams to run their conference’s table. Though I’ll admit, chances are unrealistically low for some teams. That should change fast as games are played.
11.03.11
The long-awaited pre-season ratings are here. There’s a write-up on the rating algorithm and some notable teams in College Basketball Prospectus, so you should check that out when it becomes available shortly. I’m not going to repeat that stuff here. Of course, you will get a lot of other great content in it as well.
One change this season involved the computation of the Pythagorean winning percentage. Calibration of last year’s predictions revealed that 10.25 is the best exponent to use for the purpose of the game probabilities. This should provide a more realistic forecast of end-of-season records now and especially as the games start and real data goes into the system. This does not affect the calculations of any other statistics.
Right now this results in a lot of conference records bunching up near .500. This will prompt your message board friends to say something like “There’s no way every team in the Pac-12 finishes with between 6 and 12 wins. LOL.” Substitute your own conference of choice in the quote. Of course that’s not how the teams will finish, but this is setting an expectation for each team on an individual basis, and not trying to predict the record of the conference champ, whoever that may be. Considering that the last preseason number one to go unbeaten in conference play was Duke in 1999, chances should be fairly low for even the best teams to run their conference’s table. Though I’ll admit, chances are unrealistically low for some teams. That should change fast as games are played.
