Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

[cowgirl836]

More than you ever really needed to know about the toilet paper shortage.

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about-the-toilet-paper-shortage-c812e1358fe0

The TLDR of it: Nobody is using their commercial toilet paper from their work jobs and it is not a quick or simple switch to produce the other type, requiring different machines and different materials.

If McDonald's can figure out how to sell suppliers' milk and hamburger buns from the drive through window to maintain supply chain efficiency, you'd think these manufacturers could figure out a way to package their commercial products for retail sale.

So basically identical to the issue with the milk shortage in store but dumping on farm.

 

[cowgirl836]

It looks like much of the NYT coverage on CV is free likely, such as the above.

I believe the article below is probably not, freely accessible if you are over the article limit that is, as it is in the opinion section. But it has a lot of good medical information on effects of low versus high exposure to the virus, and worth clearing your cookies/ history perhaps, if necessary to access.

These Coronavirus Exposures Might Be the Most Dangerous
As with any other poison, viruses are usually deadlier in larger amounts.
By Joshua D. Rabinowitz and Caroline R. Bartman
Dr. Rabinowitz is a professor of chemistry and genomics. Dr. Bartman is a genomic researcher.
April 1, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/opinion/coronavirus-viral-dose.html

Think some of the dosage stuff started to get attention after how many healthcare workers started dying in Italy.

 

[BCClone]

So basically identical to the issue with the milk shortage in store but dumping on farm.

If that’s all, I know where 3 automatic shrink wrap machines are that I don’t believe are being used anymore. Give me a truckload of commercial boxes and I will four pack those and double my money.

 

[mkadl]

In Wisconsin, they had to be postmarked today or sooner. I ordered mine two weeks ago and didn't receive it so those folks screwed that part up.

There was a push to have the vote delayed because of this whole 'global pandemic of a disease that could kill anyone' thing like other states but it didn't happen.

So, people had to gather in small spaces inside and get their ballots from workers during a pandemic if they wanted to do something like vote in an election in America.

I'll leave it at that.

Gottcha! Now I get it, I assumed Iowa my bad. Iowa still has absentee voting in person available on April 23rd. So gatherings will happen here too starting then. How it will be done I don't know.

 

[Statefan10]

Any kind of social distancing will go out the window after a few drinks. Bar owners who missed out on months of revenue are going to skirt any sort of capacity reduction. Bar bathrooms are a perfect breeding ground for spreading this. This is just asking to start another outbreak.

Yeah I mean I completely agree, however at some point in time, whenever that may be, things are going to start opening back up and people are just going to have to know there is risk to going places and doing things.

But here's the kicker to that, say some young kid goes to a bar one night and catches this virus, doesn't show symptoms, and brings it home or to work and infects someone who is more at risk. That person then ends up in the hospital or god forbid passes away.. There is a ton of risk to all of this.

 

[Clonehomer]

Big change in the IHME model today. Peak has moved to April 11th with 2,212 deaths per day and a total down to 60,415.

Unfortunately, Iowa's peak has moved out again and totals went up even after a 0 death day.

Hopefully this is marking a true change that we'll be able to see an improvement soon.

 

[Cytasticlone]

Big change in the IHME model today. Peak has moved to April 11th with 2,212 deaths per day and a total down to 60,415.

Unfortunately, Iowa's peak has moved out again and totals went up even after a 0 death day.

Hopefully this is marking a true change that we'll be able to see an improvement soon.

As to Iowa's peak and death movement I think it can be explicated by the bolded below from the IMHE "Update Notes". If they average the last three updates then that would have brought up the numbers as the previous iteration was probably low and the one before that(that is now averaged in) was probably way high. That high estimate being included is probably what caused things to increase as much as they did. So theoretically these current "higher" estimates should be better. That's what they were going for anyway.

Caveat: I'm no expert at statistics so I could definitely be off here.

COVID-19 death model. Our April 5 release involved a number of major methods updates for the IHME COVID-19 death model (read more here). With today’s release, we have incorporated the following updates:

• We now ensure that draws from the predictive validity uncertainty distributions are correlated over time, a model refinement that generates smoother estimates of uncertainty.
• Based on the now multiple iterations of our COVID-19 death model, we have noticed that, for at least some US states, there are massive fluctuations in the number of COVID-19 deaths reported each day. These substantial day-to-day vacillations are more likely due to an artefact in how statewide deaths are being compiled and then reported each day than actual fluctuations in COVID-19 deaths. As a result, our reported predictions – that you can view and download from the online visualization tool – are now based on averaging the last three rounds of predictions. In other words, what is shown today (April 7) is the average of model predictions from reported COVID-19 death data up to April 4 (model 1), data up to April 5 (model 2), and data up to April 7 (model 3). We view this as an important refinement that helps to strengthen model stability and buffer predictions from data fluctuations less related to observed epidemic patterns and more driven by variable data collection or reporting practices.

 

[riceville98]

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/5009556002

Maybe I'm dumb but, I don't see the recovered number on that site

 

[1UNI2ISU]

How can you open up bars? I don’t see anyway those can open up anytime soon. Maybe at all this year.

Then we're not going to have bars anymore. The vast majority can't survive another 60 days of this, let alone 8 months.

 

[Al_4_State]

Then we're not going to have bars anymore. The vast majority can't survive another 60 days of this, let alone 8 months.

Well, we won't have the ones we currently have. There's too much demand for them not to exist in the wake of this.

 

[aeroclone]

Yeah I mean I completely agree, however at some point in time, whenever that may be, things are going to start opening back up and people are just going to have to know there is risk to going places and doing things.

But here's the kicker to that, say some young kid goes to a bar one night and catches this virus, doesn't show symptoms, and brings it home or to work and infects someone who is more at risk. That person then ends up in the hospital or god forbid passes away.. There is a ton of risk to all of this.

I think what we may see as we reopen is more targeted recommendations versus the across the board closures we have today. Perhaps stores, restaurants, and offices open back up in May, but the government continues to recommend individuals in those high risk groups to continue to avoid going out and continue to work from home if possible.

My employer just informed us yesterday that whenever the all clear goes out to return to the office, it is not required to return. They said if you need to continue at home for whatever reason (high risk yourself, high risk family member, childcare closures, etc). I think that kind of approach would be good for jobs that can go remote. Let people make their own determinations about the appropriate level of exposure for their personal situation.

 

[Statefan10]

I think what we may see as we reopen is more targeted recommendations versus the across the board closures we have today. Perhaps stores, restaurants, and offices open back up in May, but the government continues to recommend individuals in those high risk groups to continue to avoid going out and continue to work from home if possible.

My employer just informed us yesterday that whenever the all clear goes out to return to the office, it is not required to return. They said if you need to continue at home for whatever reason (high risk yourself, high risk family member, childcare closures, etc). I think that kind of approach would be good for jobs that can go remote. Let people make their own determinations about the appropriate level of exposure for their personal situation.

Yeah some offices will do that, as they definitely should. It'll be interesting to see how some of the businesses that attract a lot of people handle the situation when they're allowed to be open again.

 

[Acylum]

Maybe I'm dumb but, I don't see the recovered number on that site

You're not dumb, it was there when I linked it but it's gone now. Try this instead:
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...aseline_greeting&utm_term=newsletter_greeting
It's a Rag site so takes forever to finish loading. Scroll down to the graph "Hospitalizations due to coronavirus in Iowa. Place your mouse pointer over each data point to see the exact numbers. It may not work on the mobile site and/or if you have an ad blocker. Hope this helps.

 

[CyCloned]

It will be interesting going forward to see how people will adjust their daily lives after this. Will a lot of people be working from home permanently? Will they go to crowded events like sports events or to bars? Will we still be washing their hands 15 times a day?

 

[Acylum]

Yeah I mean I completely agree, however at some point in time, whenever that may be, things are going to start opening back up and people are just going to have to know there is risk to going places and doing things.

But here's the kicker to that, say some young kid goes to a bar one night and catches this virus, doesn't show symptoms, and brings it home or to work and infects someone who is more at risk. That person then ends up in the hospital or god forbid passes away.. There is a ton of risk to all of this.

This scenario can occur in a lot of places other than bars, and no doubt will.

 

[Al_4_State]

It will be interesting going forward to see how people will adjust their daily lives after this. Will a lot of people be working from home permanently? Will they go to crowded events like sports events or to bars? Will we still be washing their hands 15 times a day?

I will take advantage of every reasonable opportunity I have to attend sporting events, concerts, or visit bars and restaurants.

Those are things I really enjoy, and it really sucks not having it. I definitely took things like that for granted.

 

[riceville98]

You're not dumb, it was there when I linked it but it's gone now. Try this instead:
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2020/03/10/coronavirus-iowa-map-how-many-cases-there-and-where-they/5009556002/?utm_source=desmoinesregister-Coronavirus Watch&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=baseline_greeting&utm_term=newsletter_greeting
It's a Rag site so takes forever to finish loading. Scroll down to the graph "Hospitalizations due to coronavirus in Iowa. Place your mouse pointer over each data point to see the exact numbers. It may not work on the mobile site and/or if you have an ad blocker. Hope this helps.

Thanks Found it there!!

 

[Statefan10]

This scenario can occur in a lot of places other than bars, and no doubt will.

It absolutely can.

 

[aeroclone]

Yeah some offices will do that, as they definitely should. It'll be interesting to see how some of the businesses that attract a lot of people handle the situation when they're allowed to be open again.

The question along with that is will customers come flocking back to these businesses that draw a big crowd? I'm certainly not going to be eager to just go browse through an Ikea or a Cabellas on a Saturday afternoon for something to do. I would, however, probably get back into going to restaurants as soon as things open back up. To me this big crowd, low necessity places probably aren't worth the risk in the near term. It will be interesting to see how the general public views that type of thing.

 

[madguy30]

I think what we may see as we reopen is more targeted recommendations versus the across the board closures we have today. Perhaps stores, restaurants, and offices open back up in May, but the government continues to recommend individuals in those high risk groups to continue to avoid going out and continue to work from home if possible.

My employer just informed us yesterday that whenever the all clear goes out to return to the office, it is not required to return. They said if you need to continue at home for whatever reason (high risk yourself, high risk family member, childcare closures, etc). I think that kind of approach would be good for jobs that can go remote. Let people make their own determinations about the appropriate level of exposure for their personal situation.

I wonder too about restaurants and bars...do you start with half staff and limited people or tables inside, then your back of house people work in shifts by themselves or something, so they have work but still limited?

Good work on your employer having some common sense. Production is production if it's done on time.