As I’ve said what she’s talking about is an actual SIP. That would be one similar to Italy or China. It would be far more reaching than anything any state has currently.
Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)
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I'm actually getting more optimistic that we're going to be at least partially back open in May.
If NY really is at peak right now, we'll be there in 2-3 weeks which gives us 10 days on the backside of the peak and at a point where its reasonable to look at opening things back up. Its not like we can wait until there is zero risk.
I'm even to the point where I think schools have a chance to have their last month.
I might just be overly optimistic but I am pretty damn tired of hearing all doom and gloom.
If NY really is at peak right now, we'll be there in 2-3 weeks which gives us 10 days on the backside of the peak and at a point where its reasonable to look at opening things back up. Its not like we can wait until there is zero risk.
I'm even to the point where I think schools have a chance to have their last month.
I might just be overly optimistic but I am pretty damn tired of hearing all doom and gloom.
New Yorker piece on coronavirus vaccine development. Article says that the fastest development was for the Zika Virus in 2015, at seven months, but the virus fizzled out before clinical trials began. Also goes into details of why certain kinds of vaccines are difficult to scale up quickly from the development stage.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-long-will-it-take-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-long-will-it-take-to-develop-a-coronavirus-vaccine
At the end of the day, a lot is also in the messaging and the message it sends people, particularly those who tend to be on her side of things. And because that messaging isnt as firm, with a formal "stay at home" order, it causes less to heed it.
That's not to say that there isnt an improvement over baselline. We've seen drops in mobility. But we've also seen less than say.. our neighbors to the north, or to the east who have had more formal orders that sent a more firm message.
Of course people will bring up anecdotal stories of people not heeding it even in states with a stay at home order, but the data shows that that happens less in states that went fully onboard with this awhile ago.
That isn't going to happen if things are only partially opening up. Schools are the ultimate petri dish. Also there's logistics....do you just switch back to normal grades and curriculum? Does everyone need a mask?
I don't think reality is doom and gloom. If someone were saying that 1/2 the country is going to be wiped out, that's doom and gloom.
Yeah I think she's definitely fumbled this a bit. If she doesn't want to call it a SIP, then don't say it's "literally what other states are doing". If it is indeed what other states are doing and she believes she's doing everything she can do and is taking every measure available, what is the point system for? What happens when we get to 10 in one of these regions?
I'm happy with her decisions today. I think these were needed. If these businesses were not already closed before, then I'm glad she's cracking down harder and also is going to start enforcing gatherings to dismiss or else they could be fined. Those are good measures taken regardless of whether they should've been done earlier.
There was a good article (by an ISU prof) in the Rag yesterday explaining why those models are trash.
Exactly- there is no way to speed up the testing protocol. DrFauci has said that before they are done with the testing phase, they will have vaccine manufactures already ramped up to start immediate production. The government may have to back these companies. That why 12-18 months.
Maybe they figure those who frequent those places have already built up immunity from everything else they’ve gotten.
I don't know. She has yet to answer that question when it was asked.. Does 10 mean she starts cracking down on businesses that currently are "essential" and deem them non-essential? Does she force places to go online for workers in that business who absolutely do not have to be in an office? I'm not sure honestly.
All I know is that Polk county region and Linn county region will hit 10 by the end of the week likely.
No, that article talks about the social distancing scoreboard, which is a much more simplistic measure that mainly just looks at distance traveled. Also, even with that, his inferences that it is entirely wrong due to urban\rural differences miss the mark when you dig into county by county data and see places like Polk County, Iowa seeing less changes in mobility than rural counties in other states (including minnesota)
Google has the backend data to actually identify the types of locations being traveled to. It can identify a reduction in people going to offices, or retail, etc.
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