Coronavirus Coronavirus: In-Iowa General Discussion (Not Limited)

[madguy30]

I'm trying to figure out why some are saying that "a vaccine is coming quickly" statement was a lie. What is the timeline for a vaccine to be arriving "quickly"?

I would not say that a year or 18 months is quickly, and I wouldn't say that even telling people that there's going to be a vaccine, when we don't even know if it's going to happen, is a viable statement either. 'A vaccine is being worked on, and there's potential for it to be developed in over a year from now' is a reasonable statement. If a vaccine comes before then, fantastic.

This goes for other open ended statements that have been made, that were not accurate or based on anything relevant, or blaming hospitals for not having enough supplies when it could have been checked up on in January to see what needed to be stockpiled.

The moving target schtick only makes things worse.

 

[ScottyP]

it could but Trump was framing it as an option to help us short term, or else just using an existing vaccine(which isn't a thing).

Thanks for the the further clarification.

 

[madguy30]

Except most teeshirts are made from fabric that's at least slightly stretchy, thus the comfort factor. The "give" doesn't keep a firm shape in place and will tend to fall or drag down.

But is it better than nothing if other things are not available?

 

[HFCS]

If somebody is infected, and touches their mask while grocery shopping, then touches anything subsequently, it's not hard to imagine at all. Asian-Americans and Asians in general are much more aware of the proper use of masks compared to your average American Wal Mart shopper. You rarely see them touching their mask, face, etc.

I'm not completely dismissing what you're saying...but I'm in a city of 20% asian people, most of these American born asian people like my wife and best friend have never worn a mask in their life before. There's a smaller subset of recent asian immigrants who have worn the mask to our grocery stores and theaters for years. The white, black, American born asian, and latino people that used to snicker and laugh at the "FOB" asians are now all wearing them. Almost half the people from the start, now it's more like 80% or 90% if you go for a walk or to a grocery store.

West coast cities wearing masks are doing better than comparable sized midwest, southern and east coast cities per capita. It's possible this is because they acted stronger and sooner, but it doesn't seem like heavy mask use is correlated with horrible per capita numbers.

 

[wxman1]

I'm guessing 80% of the people in LA are wearing masks out on the street or in stores now, probably 50% have been for 3+ weeks now. Asian community has been for years here.

LA is doing better per capita than most large cities, I imagine SF/Seattle has a similar pro-mask culture with their asian community and is doing ok despite being the first places an outbreak occurred. It's hard to imagine masks make it worse.

Speaking of LA...apparently because she can't work and has nothing else to do out there my SIL drove back from LA this weekend. This needs to end now!

 

[madguy30]

Should we wear our balaclavas when we go to do our banking? Or is that still frowned upon?

I said it earlier--if you're wearing one, and they give you a bunch of money that you didn't ask for, and you just follow THEIR directions to take it, it's not robbery, amirite?

*I'd record the conversation just in case they go by the security tape for evidence.

 

[agcy68]

Saw a segment on CNN about some hope that an old TB vaccine could help our immune system against covid 19 and might provide a stop gap while we wait for a vaccine against covid 19. It's already gone through medical trials so if it's effective it could be available fairly quickly.

Didn't the FDA already approve Hydroxychloroquine for use against Covid-19? Hasn't this already been reported?

https://www.fda.gov/media/136537/download

 

[Clonefan32]

I said it earlier--if you're wearing one, and they give you a bunch of money that you didn't ask for, and you just follow THEIR directions to take it, it's not robbery, amirite?

*I'd record the conversation just in case they go by the security tape for evidence.

I've always wondered what the Monopoly "Bank Error in your Favor" meant. Now I know!

 

[Acylum]

I'm not completely dismissing what you're saying...but I'm in a city of 20% asian people, most of these American born asian people like my wife and best friend have never worn a mask in their life before. There's a smaller subset of recent asian immigrants who have worn the mask to our grocery stores and theaters for years. The white, black, American born asian, and latino people that used to snicker and laugh at the "FOB" asians are now all wearing them. Almost half the people from the start, now it's more like 80% or 90% if you go for a walk or to a grocery store.

West coast cities wearing masks are doing better than comparable sized midwest, southern and east coast cities per capita. It's possible this is because they acted stronger and sooner, but it doesn't seem like heavy mask use is correlated with horrible per capita numbers.

The CDC/ Fauci/et.al. didn't suddenly have a huge revelation that masks can limit the spread of communicable diseases. They simply bowed to public pressure and were also trying to keep the limited supply for medical facilities.

 

[knowlesjam]

I would not say that a year or 18 months is quickly, and I wouldn't say that even telling people that there's going to be a vaccine, when we don't even know if it's going to happen, is a viable statement either. 'A vaccine is being worked on, and there's potential for it to be developed in over a year from now' is a reasonable statement. If a vaccine comes before then, fantastic.

This goes for other open ended statements that have been made, that were not accurate or based on anything relevant, or blaming hospitals for not having enough supplies when it could have been checked up on in January to see what needed to be stockpiled.

The moving target schtick only makes things worse.

Coming up with a vaccine is quick (and probably imminent for many to go into wider testing), but...

- New vaccines have to go through a very comprehensive testing program. Otherwise, what happens if the vaccine produces multiple side effects that are irreversible...like cancer, permanently compromised immunity systems, sterility, etc.? You rush something out and end up putting more people at risk than the actual virus. This takes a minimum of 3-6 months. Now, once you get through testing, you are looking at months to actually produce a suitable supply of vaccine. Production on this year's influenza shot (the one you will get this fall) started in January...basically 6-8 months before the shipments go out. This is why most are saying 12-18 months...

Sorry for the long spiel...information came from the spouse who was a vaccine distributor for Sanofi-Pasteur.

 

[NorthCyd]

Didn't the FDA already approve Hydroxychloroquine for use against Covid-19? Hasn't this already been reported?

https://www.fda.gov/media/136537/download

I was talking about something different. Hydroxychloroquine is medication originally developed to treat malaria. What I'm talking about is a 100 year old vaccine for tuberculosis.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.amp.html

 

[alarson]

Didn't the FDA already approve Hydroxychloroquine for use against Covid-19? Hasn't this already been reported?

https://www.fda.gov/media/136537/download

At the direction of Trump, with little to no scientific evidence it actually improves anything.

 

[HFCS]

The CDC/ Fauci/et.al. didn't suddenly have a huge revelation that masks can limit the spread of communicable diseases. They simply bowed to public pressure and were also trying to keep the limited supply for medical facilities.

I agree with that part. There is wisdom in not sending the toilet paper crowd after masks 3-4 weeks ago.

I have some basic (not n95) I've used for allergies for years. I'm using them when I go out. The vast majority of people I see in LA have been using some sort of mask from the beginning even when they were told they didn't help.

At some point we move into science denial if we look at mask use and outcomes in Taiwan and Korea. Free modern developed societies where masks have been a critical component in outbreak after outbreak including this one.

 

[WhoISthis]

So, should we listen to the CDC or not? It seems that several want to say listen to them, but then say they were unreliable in the past. If your past is unreliable, why would your present be reliable? Or is it that it now just coincides with what people want to hear?

Frankly, they’ve been steamrolled by this so badly, they’re far closer to Bagdad Bob than the general public would want to believe. This is on-the-fly field medicine with an element of political CYA infiltrating many aspects- henceforth, what even the CDC says should be scrutinized imo.

You don’t need to have a large social network of doctors, healthcare policy experts, or academics to know the CDC is getting caught at times painting the target around the arrow.

 

[Die4Cy]

But couldn't 18 months or 2 years be considered quick?

It'd be the fastest one was ever offered. The vaccine itself isn't going to be difficult to develop, it may already have been for all I know. But there's only so much of the testing you can safely streamline before mass producing. I believe H1N1 took 22 months to get through testing and approval.

 

[Ms3r4ISU]

But is it better than nothing if other things are not available?

I say yes if you want to wear something. The issue becomes apparent if you keep needing to hold it up or pull it up, thus crossing the "don't touch your face" barrier.

 

[AuH2O]

I'm wondering--are the 2nd and 3rd flare ups/peaks going to have the same kinds of numbers and/or rapid increases?

Barring stretching it out so long that we reach herd immunity or a vaccine, the net area under the curve(s) are probably going to be the same, whether it's one quick, horrible spike, or 3-4 flatter peaks. Some of the unknowns on re-infection obviously matter and can't be determined yet. But assuming a vast majority don't get reinfected in the near future again and we don't reach herd immunity levels, then the number of infected is going to end up being largely the same. As has been shown repeatedly, "mortality rate" is not an independent number. It is extremely reliant on whether or not you stay close to hospital capacity.

Personally I think waiting out a vaccine is a pipe dream for most people, so really it comes down to having the rate of "currently hospitalized" at or below capacity.

One of the issues I have is people look at new cases and think the sky is falling. More people are going to keep getting infected for quite some time. In fact the number of "currently hospitalized" is likely going to keep going up for a while, and that's OK as long as we still have capacity. The reality with deaths is that they will go up no matter what we do right now. There are people currently in the early stages of infection that are going to die. And we still have ICU capacity and vents to deal with them, so there is nothing in terms of care/treatment that we can do differently.

But what we need to do is make sure that number of "currently hospitalized" grows slowly and eventually peaks at a point around our capacity or below plus get more ventilators available. That will keep the deaths at a "best case" mortality where we are not limiting recovery by lack of resources.

 

[Trice]

I can criticize / comment on her data, metrics, and explanations of things, but I'm done arguing with others on why she should do more. She's either going to do it, or she's not. Nothing I say on here will change that. I will, however, still have conversations about what she is saying to the public and the information she's sharing.

The argument is over. Reynolds has already conceded it, even if her proxies haven't.

She implicitly conceded it last week when the planning tool she relies on but wouldn't share with the media leaked. If you're already executing a SIPEIWDCIT (Shelter In Place Even If We Don't Call It That) then why would you need a planning tool to trigger an SIP - the very policy you say you've already implemented?

She explicitly conceded it this morning when she revealed that the SIPEIWDCIT isn't anything like an SIP at all because there are actually numerous other businesses she can close and enforcement she can bring to bear, that for some unknown reason hasn't done until weeks into the crisis.

It isn't, and has never been, about the SIP itself. It's about whether she was being transparent in her own data and decision making, and whether she could assure Iowans she was doing everything she could to fight this. The answer on both counts is no.

 

[RealisticCy]

Frankly, they’ve been steamrolled by this so badly, they’re far closer to Bagdad Bob than the general public would want to believe. This is on-the-fly field medicine with an element of political CYA infiltrating many aspects- henceforth, what even the CDC says should be scrutinized imo.

You don’t need to have a large social network of doctors, healthcare policy experts, or academics to know the CDC is getting caught at times painting the target around the arrow.

We need to trust and fully fund the CDC. Expert opinions mean far more than hindsight criticism from non-experts. When a bridge fails, we still trust engineers to plan/build the next one.....or should we let a lawyer have a try?

 

[WhoISthis]

We need to trust and fully fund the CDC. Expert opinions mean far more than hindsight criticism from non-experts. When a bridge fails, we still trust engineers to plan/build the next one.....or should we let a lawyer have a try?

That’s the thing, expert opinions and funding at the CDC took a back seat well before this broke out. That’s not hindsight. Or criticism from just non-experts.

Hopefully we can get back to listening to science, facts, and funding as needed, starting next January