CFB Playoff Discussion

[Die4Cy]

There is no way Ohio State jumps TCU. TCU won on the road against a bowl team. OSU won at home against a non-bowl team. TCU's margin was much larger.

True enough, in theory. OSU's body of work is fairly pathetic again this year. Weakest team in the top 8 IMO, except for maybe FSU, who has the benefit of being undefeated. Does a committee feel more pressure to get B1G eyeballs for the playoff games? If they do, OSU > TCU.

 

[chuckd4735]

True enough, in theory. OSU's body of work is fairly pathetic again this year. Weakest team in the top 8 IMO, except for maybe FSU, who has the benefit of being undefeated. Does a committee feel more pressure to get B1G eyeballs for the playoff games? If they do, OSU > TCU.

I think its a moot point, because Wisconsin will beat OSU. It will be interesting to see the committee pick between Baylor and TCU...

 

[BearDownAZ]

If Arizona beats Oregon (which they have in the last two meetings) and Ohio State losses to Wisconsin (very likely with JT Barrett out), I think Arizona gets in. I can't see the committee taking two Big 12 teams

 

[Bret44]

Iowa State football and Championship Saturday, the way things are meant to be.

 

[Stormin]

If Arizona beats Oregon (which they have in the last two meetings) and Ohio State losses to Wisconsin (very likely with JT Barrett out), I think Arizona gets in. I can't see the committee taking two Big 12 teams

Committee can do anything. I do not see why Ohio State is rated so highly. They lost at home to a .500 Virginia Tech team and basically have one decent win over Michigan State. TCU dominated Minnesota and that is Ohio State's next best win. The only loss TCU has is by a field goal at Baylor which is rated #7 and will move up. If Bama's loss can be ignored then why can't TCU's? Especially since TCU has the "best" loss of any team.

Ohio State might squeak out a win over Wisconsin even without Barrett. But there is no doubt the injury weakens the Buckeyes. And the committee can take that into consideration. No way to Ohio State.

 

[cyclones500]

If all the favorites win, it'll be:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State

 

[CyFan61]

If all the favorites win, it'll be:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State

If all the favorites win, I think the #4 team will be Baylor. TCU will get left out thanks to playing Iowa State in the last week. Sorry TCU.

 

[everyyard]

Kstate beats Baylor and ISU beats TCU. You heard it here first.

Second

 

[JHUNSY]

I would think the ratings this week will be
1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. TCU
5. Ohio State
6. Baylor

I think there is no way that the committee will let the SEC miss even if Bama lost to Mizzou by 48 (Never going to happen either). So it would take an FSU, Oregon, or Ohio State loss to get that second one next in line and a second would have to lose to bump Baylor in.

Oregon vs Arizona
Florida State vs Georgia Tech
Ohio State vs Wisconsin

I think all three of those games could go south for the favorites. I would think that OSU would be most likely to lose and FSU next.

Odds of this shaping up that way? Possible, but doubtful simply because even if the stars align you know there will still be heavy politicking in that room come decision Sunday. Look at the praise the Bulldogs got and the slander Baylor got with completely identical quality in non con opponents. Mississippi State even played a fourth nobody outside of conference. There was push to make the TCU Baylor game look bad by "lack of defense" and yet probably nothing will be mentioned about the Iron Bowl score come this week. I think one of the ESPN senior writers talked about how boring an NCAA game was a few weeks ago that went scoreless into OT or along those lines, and yet he was previously recalling how exciting the LSU Bama game was as the "Game of the Century" a few weeks prior.

There is a significant change in analysis and perspective every week to make the SEC look good, but one thing you can always count on is the constant doubt and criticism of the Big 12. Getting two teams in will be tough.

 

[Stormin]

If all the favorites win, I think the #4 team will be Baylor. TCU will get left out thanks to playing Iowa State in the last week. Sorry TCU.

I disagree. IMO, Baylor gets left out because they had a weaker schedule and they lost to West Virginia. TCU's lone loss was by 3 points AT Baylor. If Bama gets a pass for their 7 point loss AT Mississippi then the same should hold true for TCU.

Ohio State has beaten no one except Michigan State who is over rated as well. The non-conference record of the Big Ten was simply awful. That should not be ignored.

 

[JRE1975]

FSU has been very fortunate with the head case they have for QB. I think GT beats them and does the committee a favor since most have to think that FSU is not one of the top 4 teams. It did help FSU that the ACC did so well yesterday against the SEC.

The bias on ESPN seems to be in favor of Ohio State for number 4, but the love affair with BIG continues. If FSU loses, then any win will get OSU in the playoffs. Wisconsin struggles with Iowa and Minnesota, so I think OSU will find a way to win.

Oregon and Alabama should win easily and will be #1 & #2. TCU #3 and OSU #4.

 

[clonedude]

Ohio State should NOT get in IMO.

I was ticked at Herbstreit all year long when he basically was saying that OSU's loss against VTech shouldn't really count since Braxton Miller got injured. That was BS IMO. Every team has an excuse as to why they lost a game. TCU got hosed against Baylor with a horrible PI call that gave Baylor the win too, so should that loss not count too?

But now Herbstreit has himself in a corner with his beloved Ohio State. All year long he's been saying you have to look at how OSU is playing right now..... well... now their starting QB is out again.... so that should now be taken into account as well.... if he wants to be consistent at least.

I don't know how you take a team who is now down to their 3rd string QB behind Miller and Barrett. Same goes for Baylor if Petty can't play IMO. I think TCU deserves the #4 spot... until we beat them Saturday, right?

 

[clonedude]

If TCU and Baylor both win, and neither of them make the final 4, what do you think Bowlsby and the Big 12 will do?

Because if that is the case, then it will basically only come down to the fact that the Big 12 doesn't have a Championship Game that will cost them. So does the Big 12 go back to looking at expansion again?

Personally I think it's a bunch of BS with the Championship Game thing. The Big 12 is the only conference that crowns a true champion. We play everyone. What if Iowa had made the B1G championship game this year with their schedule? They didn't play hardly any of the good teams in their conference this year. That would have been a joke.

 

[Stormin]

If TCU and Baylor both win, and neither of them make the final 4, what do you think Bowlsby and the Big 12 will do?

Because if that is the case, then it will basically only come down to the fact that the Big 12 doesn't have a Championship Game that will cost them. So does the Big 12 go back to looking at expansion again?

Personally I think it's a bunch of BS with the Championship Game thing. The Big 12 is the only conference that crowns a true champion. We play everyone. What if Iowa had made the B1G championship game this year with their schedule? They didn't play hardly any of the good teams in their conference this year. That would have been a joke.

Bowlsby should question the committee. HOW could they be willing to possibly include a Mississippi State team that would NOT be playing in a Conference Championship game had they beaten Old Miss?T

The Conference Championship game is a BS argument to try to rationalize the inclusion of Ohio State into the Final Four. IMO, you MUST include either Baylor or TCU. And if the chips fall right you might include both.

 

[TykeClone]

If TCU and Baylor both win, and neither of them make the final 4, what do you think Bowlsby and the Big 12 will do?

Because if that is the case, then it will basically only come down to the fact that the Big 12 doesn't have a Championship Game that will cost them. So does the Big 12 go back to looking at expansion again?

Personally I think it's a bunch of BS with the Championship Game thing. The Big 12 is the only conference that crowns a true champion. We play everyone. What if Iowa had made the B1G championship game this year with their schedule? They didn't play hardly any of the good teams in their conference this year. That would have been a joke.

If the big IIXII is left out because there is no championship game, add two southern schools regardless of how strong they are. The committee will have shown that the median strength of the conference doesn't matter. Grab UAB and southern miss. Or really anyone.

 

[bigdaddykane]

If all the favorites win, it'll be:
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State

Bama would beat osu by 60

 

[CyFan61]

I disagree. IMO, Baylor gets left out because they had a weaker schedule and they lost to West Virginia. TCU's lone loss was by 3 points AT Baylor. If Bama gets a pass for their 7 point loss AT Mississippi then the same should hold true for TCU.

Ohio State has beaten no one except Michigan State who is over rated as well. The non-conference record of the Big Ten was simply awful. That should not be ignored.

The committee has always said that they will give conference champions a boost and factor that in strongly. They also requested that the Big 12 only submit one champion and not co-champions. If Baylor beats K-State, the Big 12 will submit them to the committee as the Big 12 champion. I think that combined with the head-to-head win over TCU might be enough to get Baylor to jump TCU in the final rankings.

 

[CyFan61]

If the big IIXII is left out because there is no championship game, add two southern schools regardless of how strong they are. The committee will have shown that the median strength of the conference doesn't matter. Grab UAB and southern miss. Or really anyone.

UConn and Memphis

New Big 12 North:

Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Memphis
UConn
West Virginia

Now if only that made financial sense...

 

[JHUNSY]

If the big IIXII is left out because there is no championship game, add two southern schools regardless of how strong they are. The committee will have shown that the median strength of the conference doesn't matter. Grab UAB and southern miss. Or really anyone.

UAB or Southern Miss? I really don't want to jump on this train, but I think Marshall is a potentially better candidate. WVU proximity, fits geographically, same size as Baylor and the small schools, Huntington is similar size to Stillwater, Manhattan, and Ames, and they've shown recent athletic success.

But for the topic, the Big 12 is in as long as TCU and/or Baylor win out.

 

[CyFan61]

UAB or Southern Miss? I really don't want to jump on this train, but I think Marshall is a potentially better candidate. WVU proximity, fits geographically, same size as Baylor and the small schools, Huntington is similar size to Stillwater, Manhattan, and Ames, and they've shown recent athletic success.

In this day and age of "electronic footprint" and "TV markets," I can't imagine a worse decision than adding a second school (with a much, much smaller fanbase) in a state with <2 million people