Big 12 Championship Game Projection
- Thread starter Dale
- Start date
God we could've had a decent chance with Texas and OU losing today but of course we lose too.
So we now officially control our own destiny right? We win out, we'd be in? Where as if we won today, we could've dropped one to either OU or Texas and be in?
So we now officially control our own destiny right? We win out, we'd be in? Where as if we won today, we could've dropped one to either OU or Texas and be in?
Update after today's weird set of games:
Oklahoma: 88.8% (65.8% 1st, 23.0% 2nd)
Baylor: 69.7% (27.3% 1st, 42.4% 2nd)
Texas: 21.5% (2.2% 1st, 19.3% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 12.3% (3.4% 1st, 8.9% 2nd)
TCU: 3.4% (0.8% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 2.8% (0.3% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 1.4% (0.1% 1st, 1.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Kansas, Tech: Nope
Baylor/Oklahoma: 59.2%
Oklahoma/Texas: 18.2%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 7.3%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.7%
Baylor/Texas: 2.9%
Oklahoma/TCU: 2.3%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 1.5%
Baylor/Kansas St.: 1.2%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 1.0%
ISU record chances:
5-7: 1.0%
6-6: 14.9%
7-5: 41.6%
8-4: 36.1%
9-3: 6.3%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.2%
8-4: 17.3%
9-3: 95.7%
This will change a little after Massey updates his team rankings tomorrow; probably biggest difference tomorrow is that Baylor's odds will go up even further.
Oklahoma: 88.8% (65.8% 1st, 23.0% 2nd)
Baylor: 69.7% (27.3% 1st, 42.4% 2nd)
Texas: 21.5% (2.2% 1st, 19.3% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 12.3% (3.4% 1st, 8.9% 2nd)
TCU: 3.4% (0.8% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 2.8% (0.3% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 1.4% (0.1% 1st, 1.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Kansas, Tech: Nope
Baylor/Oklahoma: 59.2%
Oklahoma/Texas: 18.2%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 7.3%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.7%
Baylor/Texas: 2.9%
Oklahoma/TCU: 2.3%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 1.5%
Baylor/Kansas St.: 1.2%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 1.0%
ISU record chances:
5-7: 1.0%
6-6: 14.9%
7-5: 41.6%
8-4: 36.1%
9-3: 6.3%
ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.2%
8-4: 17.3%
9-3: 95.7%
This will change a little after Massey updates his team rankings tomorrow; probably biggest difference tomorrow is that Baylor's odds will go up even further.
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Because I enjoy torturing myself, can you run something if Iowa State was to win this past Saturday with the other results staying the same (OU/Texas losing)?
I don't think you want that kind of agony. The rest of us definitely do not.
thanks. One thing I don't understand. If ISU went 9-3 what scenario keeps them out of the championship game? I'm sure it's a tiebreaker somewhere I am just missing. Wouldn't we would have tiebreaker against TX, KSt, and OU in that scenario? Who am I missing?
Ah. I think I figured it out. OSU could run the table and they would have tiebreaker over us.
If both teams ran the table, we would finish higher than OSU. We would finish 7-2 in the conference, and they'd finish 6-3.
Eyeballing the data, all (or almost all) of the scenarios have ISU, OU, and Baylor in a three-way tie at 7-2 that's broken by points.
I guess while we're at it, we could go the opposite way. ISU losing to OSU and the other favorites winning. Assuming that would've pretty much doomed us completely.
Down to ~5%. Only about a 65% chance of making the championship game even with going undefeated the rest of the way.
Games that will most affect ISU's chances of making the Big 12 Championship. In short: cheer for TCU and against Baylor.
Iowa St. over Oklahoma: 38.8% (2.9% to 41.7%)
Iowa St. over Texas: 15.4% (2.3% to 17.7%)
Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 14.4% (4.0% to 18.4%)
Iowa St. over Kansas: 7.9% (4.3% to 12.2%)
West Virginia over Baylor: 4.5% (10.5% to 15.0%)
Texas over Baylor: 4.4% (9.6% to 14.0%)
Kansas over Baylor: 4.0% (10.5% to 14.5%)
TCU over Baylor: 3.6% (9.5% to 13.1%)
TCU over Oklahoma: 2.9% (11.1% to 14.0%)
TCU over Oklahoma St.: 2.8% (10.3% to 13.1%)
(Example: In the final game, ISU's chances if OSU wins are 10.3%, and ISU's chances if TCU wins are 13.1%, for a difference of 2.8%.)
Iowa St. over Oklahoma: 38.8% (2.9% to 41.7%)
Iowa St. over Texas: 15.4% (2.3% to 17.7%)
Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 14.4% (4.0% to 18.4%)
Iowa St. over Kansas: 7.9% (4.3% to 12.2%)
West Virginia over Baylor: 4.5% (10.5% to 15.0%)
Texas over Baylor: 4.4% (9.6% to 14.0%)
Kansas over Baylor: 4.0% (10.5% to 14.5%)
TCU over Baylor: 3.6% (9.5% to 13.1%)
TCU over Oklahoma: 2.9% (11.1% to 14.0%)
TCU over Oklahoma St.: 2.8% (10.3% to 13.1%)
(Example: In the final game, ISU's chances if OSU wins are 10.3%, and ISU's chances if TCU wins are 13.1%, for a difference of 2.8%.)
Although there must be some tiebreaker scenario that has us not making the championship game if we win out. However, if we win out, we are going to the Big 12 Championship game and we can absolutely win it when we get there. Saturday was a fluke. We don't lose again this year.
