"Aggies to Secede" - Blogpost

[ChrisMWilliams]

You all make valid points. I still have the feeling that texas is setting up to go indy, but you all make good points.

I disagree with that.

I don't think that Texas wants to go Indy. If they did, where would Texas park all of their sports other than football?

The WAC? That will hardly fly in Austin.

Fact is, Texas is one of the most competitive athletic departments in America, top to bottom. Right now, they're basically an independent (meaning that they do what they want, when they want to do it) inside of a conference. Should they go indy, no conference in America will let them park those other programs inside of it.

Notre Dame has a SWEET setup with the Big East. Something tells me that after all of this, Texas wouldn't be so lucky.

 

[Sammy11]

This part is what some dont seem to get. The LHN is a lot more than it was sold as. It was sold as 'just a noncon fb game and some other minor texas sports that nobody cares about'. Everyone figured, ****, if texas can make some money on this, why not. This is also why everyone was estimating a LOT less for texas's potential earnings on this.

Then it became clear ESPN\Texas were after more. Additional conference games, high school games, etc. Thats when TAMU started calling foul.

True but the fact is each and every bit of inventory beyond 1 football game, 8 hoops, 3 or more womens hoops, and whatever else isnt broadcast is something that the contract itself puts within Big 12 and NCAA rules. The other 9 schools will have plenty of say about what happens with the LHN and can enforce those initial boundaries should we collectively choose to do so.

Also the out clauses are only for these minimums, not 2 games or hs content like midnight yell misleadingly assumed when they could read the contract and find out for sure.

 

[Sammy11]

I disagree with that.

I don't think that Texas wants to go Indy. If they did, where would Texas park all of their sports other than football?

The WAC? That will hardly fly in Austin.

Fact is, Texas is one of the most competitive athletic departments in America, top to bottom. Right now, they're basically an independent (meaning that they do what they want, when they want to do it) inside of a conference. Should they go indy, no conference in America will let them park those other programs inside of it.

Notre Dame has a SWEET setup with the Big East. Something tells me that after all of this, Texas wouldn't be so lucky.

Agreed. Here is what kind of financial projections we can use to compare IMO.

Everyone speculates UT indy so I did some homework to see how much is left on the table. This is all estimation that I gathered from many sources.

Let us be clear on what UT has in the Big 12. Total revenue is going to net 20m per year until the tier 1 contract is redone in 2016 which will likely get them to 26-27m at minimum. This includes 15m in TV dollars and about 5-6m in league revenue from other sources.

Let's now give them favorable projections for indy.

Notre Dame gets 15m per year for football. Lets give UT 1.5 times that despite their carving out 1 game for the LHN. We have 22.5m so far.

UT will need a non football home and the most lucrative landing spot that has more than a 1/100 chance of occuring is the Big East that pays non-fb members 2m. Let's triple that so we are safely in the clear when their deal is redone next year. 6m from that gets 28.5 million.

UT will get non-fb revenue from the BE, keep their own bowl money, and keep their own BCS share. For simplicity I took ND's numbers here. 4.6m roughly

33m indy vs 27m B12

This brings a total of roughly 6m to be gained by going indy per year. Add in exit fees (at least 9m), having to pay teams to play you without return games (prob 2 games so 1.2m per year), difficulty of scheduling, politics, and other blowback and it isn't really worth it unless they can get an even bigger deal than the favorable outlook above. If they can't land in the BE, take that 6m and reduce it to 1m. It doesn't make much sense unless the negotiations greatly exceed Notre Dame's results.

I omitted LHN revenue as it is fixed and equal for both scenarios.

BYU going indy opened up 4x what the MWC could pay and 100x the exposure and therefore made sense. UT faces neither marginal benefit.

 

[ChrisMWilliams]

Listening to Chip Brown on Austin ESPN Radio. Just said that if A&M were to leave, he thinks Texas would do what they can to hold the Big 12 together. Said that Texas does not want to go independent.

 

[Al_4_State]

Listening to Chip Brown on Austin ESPN Radio. Just said that if A&M were to leave, he thinks Texas would do what they can to hold the Big 12 together. Said that Texas does not want to go independent.

If Oklahoma stayed put, the Big 12 could be just as viable w/out A&M as it could with them.

Just add TCU, BYU, Louisville, and you have a better league.

 

[ChrisMWilliams]

If Oklahoma stayed put, the Big 12 could be just as viable w/out A&M as it could with them.

Just add TCU, BYU, Louisville, and you have a better league.

If only that tier 1 package was up in a year or two and not in 2015. Big 12 could get back up to 12 and it would make a lot of sense. Financially, it doesn't right now.

BYU intrigues me.

 

[UNIGuy4Cy]

If Oklahoma stayed put, the Big 12 could be just as viable w/out A&M as it could with them.

Just add TCU, BYU, Louisville, and you have a better league.

While I agree with BYU taking a look at the Big 12 if offered, but why would any team want to leave a conference to join the Big 12, even the Big East has more stability? I honestly have never seen anything like the Big 12 nor do I think we will see anything like this again and as of now the conference (if you want to call it that) is a complete joke.

 

[CyBerg]

I disagree with that.

I don't think that Texas wants to go Indy. If they did, where would Texas park all of their sports other than football?

The WAC? That will hardly fly in Austin.

Fact is, Texas is one of the most competitive athletic departments in America, top to bottom. Right now, they're basically an independent (meaning that they do what they want, when they want to do it) inside of a conference. Should they go indy, no conference in America will let them park those other programs inside of it.

100% true. I don't think these bazillion dollar tv contracts were signed by a bunch of idiots who didn't think through the dynamics of this situation.

 

[Al_4_State]

While I agree with BYU taking a look at the Big 12 if offered, but why would any team want to leave a conference to join the Big 12, even the Big East has more stability? I honestly have never seen anything like the Big 12 nor do I think we will see anything like this again and as of now the conference (if you want to call it that) is a complete joke.

Money talks and ******** walks.

If you get rid of Aggie, you lose the instability. OU is fine in the Big 12, because they're trying to do what Texas does, and when the Top is happy, the other institutions will be fine because we're all getting paid.

 

[Mowilly]

If Oklahoma stayed put, the Big 12 could be just as viable w/out A&M as it could with them.

Just add TCU, BYU, Louisville, and you have a better league.

Not gonna disagree w/ you but (and it is a huge but) if aTm left, only BYU will get the invite and the league will stay at 10. I have yet to see anything that indicates that the SEC wants to start up this mess. aTm is acting alot like Mizzou folks did prior to being left at the Big Ten altar. This is aTm folks on the outside trying to make something happen and I believe this will make Bill Byrne's job even tougher moving forward

TCU will never be a Big 12 school- it simply will not happen

Chip Brown speaks for the Godfather. If he says UT does not want to be indy, then everyone should feel good. His aTm info is likely the Godfather talking to Bill Byrne himself

Did anyone find it interesting about the Big East rejecting the ESPN proposal?

 

[Tornado man]

I don't think that Texas wants to go Indy. If they did, where would Texas park all of their sports other than football?

The WAC? That will hardly fly in Austin.

Fact is, Texas is one of the most competitive athletic departments in America, top to bottom. Right now, they're basically an independent (meaning that they do what they want, when they want to do it) inside of a conference. Should they go indy, no conference in America will let them park those other programs inside of it.

If true, then why aren't the Big 12 schools playing hardball with Texas? Why are the schools other than A&M and OU laying down for them?
Make Texas drop the high school TV games, and also say no to conference games on the LHN. If Texas "really" wants to stay in the Big 12, they would agree to guard rails. Instead, they seem to have no fear, and schools like ISU, KSU, KU, etc. fear them...

 

[Al_4_State]

Not gonna disagree w/ you but (and it is a huge but) if aTm left, only BYU will get the invite and the league will stay at 10. I have yet to see anything that indicates that the SEC wants to start up this mess. aTm is acting alot like Mizzou folks did prior to being left at the Big Ten altar. This is aTm folks on the outside trying to make something happen and I believe this will make Bill Byrne's job even tougher moving forward

TCU will never be a Big 12 school- it simply will not happen

Chip Brown speaks for the Godfather. If he says UT does not want to be indy, then everyone should feel good. His aTm info is likely the Godfather talking to Bill Byrne himself

Did anyone find it interesting about the Big East rejecting the ESPN proposal?

Right, right, I understand that there's no reason to go beyond 10 until it's time to renegotiate.

BYU would bring just as much (maybe even more) to the conference financially than A&M. I'd love to just kick A&M out and invite BYU today.

 

[ChrisMWilliams]

If true, then why aren't the Big 12 schools playing hardball with Texas? Why are the schools other than A&M and OU laying down for them?
Make Texas drop the high school TV games, and also say no to conference games on the LHN. If Texas "really" wants to stay in the Big 12, they would agree to guard rails. Instead, they seem to have no fear, and schools like ISU, KSU, KU, etc. fear them...

Because other schools in the league don't have any leverage. That's pretty obvious isn't it?

A&M is doing what they're doing. Oklahoma will always have a home and if it is out west, Oklahoma State will go with them.

Texas Tech has the Pac-12 to lean on.

Mizzou thinks that they have the SEC, but we also heard that about the Big Ten a year ago.

Sure, the Big East thing is hanging out there for the rest of the schools but even if that were to happen, these schools would likely take a financial hit. This has all changed too, as TCU is now in the league.

If Texas wanted to go independent, they would have done it by now. Like Sammy spelled out up above, it doesn't make any sense. They can always fall back on it but that doesn't mean it is what they actually want.

Texas has the best of both worlds right now and I don't believe for a second that they want to change that. I think that they're simply seeing how much they can get away with in a new situation.

 

[CYphyllis]

If true, then why aren't the Big 12 schools playing hardball with Texas? Why are the schools other than A&M and OU laying down for them?
Make Texas drop the high school TV games, and also say no to conference games on the LHN. If Texas "really" wants to stay in the Big 12, they would agree to guard rails. Instead, they seem to have no fear, and schools like ISU, KSU, KU, etc. fear them...

He who has the cash, makes the decisions. Not sure how hard that is to figure out. If Texas wants to show HS games, I say go for it, as long as that big, beautiful check keeps showing up.

 

[Mowilly]

One theory is that the league (and UT) allow the Aggies to walk and replace them w/ BYU. This actually would help w/ tier 1 dollars but as CW pointed out- that is still a ways off.

The risk of aTm leaving is that another school will be poached to get the SEC to equal numbers and that could set off a fire storm that would likely bring a barrage of suitors to the Big 12 schools asking them to leave. (Pac 12 vultures mostly). To prevent that, the league would have to add BYU and two others to create long term sustainability. This would force the league to take two schools who have not been vetted out yet and would dilute the pool of money for 3 years that we are currently getting.

Aditionally, there are few if any AD's who are excited about UNM, CSU, AF or any other Texas school.

 

[UNIGuy4Cy]

Money talks and ******** walks.

If you get rid of Aggie, you lose the instability. OU is fine in the Big 12, because they're trying to do what Texas does, and when the Top is happy, the other institutions will be fine because we're all getting paid.

Money that may be more limited come 2015 if the LHN keeps eating up conference games. Who is going to pay a ton of money to the Big 12 if Texas, the cash cow, has at least 2 games if not more on their own network? The LHN, if allowed to broadcast more that one game, will cannibalize the Big 12 profits. The question becomes who will stop Texas from allowing this to happen? The marketability with the LHN now in place may not be what it was last season.

 

[CYphyllis]

Money that may be more limited come 2015 if the LHN keeps eating up conference games. Who is going to pay a ton of money to the Big 12 if Texas, the cash cow, has at least 2 games if not more on their own network? The LHN, if allowed to broadcast more that one game, will cannibalize the Big 12 profits. The question becomes who will stop Texas from allowing this to happen? The marketability with the LHN now in place may not be what it was last season.

I reiterate, you should be forced to give your University of DeVry degree back. You have clearly not earned it.

I doubt you are going to see the error of your ways, so I'll point it out:

In 2015 it's a Tier 1 contract.

The LHN covers a Tier 3 OOC and at most, if the other school is willing to take a paycheck, a Tier 2 conference game.

 

[ChrisMWilliams]

One theory is that the league (and UT) allow the Aggies to walk and replace them w/ BYU. This actually would help w/ tier 1 dollars but as CW pointed out- that is still a ways off.

The risk of aTm leaving is that another school will be poached to get the SEC to equal numbers and that could set off a fire storm that would likely bring a barrage of suitors to the Big 12 schools asking them to leave. (Pac 12 vultures mostly). To prevent that, the league would have to add BYU and two others to create long term sustainability. This would force the league to take two schools who have not been vetted out yet and would dilute the pool of money for 3 years that we are currently getting.

Aditionally, there are few if any AD's who are excited about UNM, CSU, AF or any other Texas school.

Solid points. The Mizzou/SEC is always in play.

And you're right. Don't think for a second that the Pac-12 won't hop all over OU, OSU, Tech and whoever else if they get a chance.

At the end of the day guys and I think that we all realize this, nobody has a clue what is going to go down. It's a domino deal. If one thing goes down, another will likely follow, and this will happen again, again and again,

Plans don't mean much in this world. Let's hope for the best.

 

[Mowilly]

I still think we should fix our eyes what is happening w/ the Big East. The TV dollars and its growth continues to fracture its schools. (basketball vs. football and the Irish in the middle staying out of it because of the sweet deal that they have)

The league is not going to go away but it could change dramatically and those changes can actually come back to help us. (L'Ville becoming available or ND joining in everything but football. I know many hate that idea but Dodds already invited them to do that)

As long as Greg Swaim is on Larry Scott's payroll (unofficially)- these stories will continue to be out out there as there is an ax to grind.

 

[Tornado man]

Because other schools in the league don't have any leverage. That's pretty obvious isn't it?

Texas has the best of both worlds right now and I don't believe for a second that they want to change that. I think that they're simply seeing how much they can get away with in a new situation.

Why all the excuses being given for the Longhorns? It makes me ill. Texas "agreed" to remain a member of the Big 12! A big part of that is being accountable to other conference members, and to abide by agreements that were made! You can't have it both ways and maintain morale in the league.
Last summer, the Big 12 agreed to certain conditions regarding schools' own TV networks. Compromises were approved by all, including Texas. They have now broken those agreements with the plans to televise conference games and high school games on the LHN. They were not given a blank check.
I understand the fear here in Ames, but schools like A&M and OU don't have to lick Texas' boots, and I sure won't either...