After some research, I've come around on Dekkers

[MeowingCows]

He has absolutely earned my respect for standing behind that line and taking it on the chin 11 Saturdays this year, coming up on 12.

The yardage and completion numbers are probably a bit inflated from where they should be. Since Iowa State can't run the ball, Dekkers has dropped back an insane amount and attempted far more passes than any other Big 12 QB. Dekkers as thrown 433 times this year. The next guy is Spencer Sanders at 368, but the rest of the pack is 100+ behind him.

It's for this exact reason that I don't place much stock in that raw stats. We're basically having Dekkers run a pseudo-Air Raid offense -- his volume is massive. I'd feel better about that if numbers like INT, sack rate, Y/A, etc. were better than they are now. Last I checked, while the basic stats for Dekkers looked good, the advanced stats painted a different picture.

Now, could coaching changes help that? Maybe. But we don't have much of a history of QB improvement year over year with Campbell.

 

[CyGuy5]

Its clear he isn't really the problem. He isn't perfect, but without any line, any run game, and a competent OC there's no way to blame Dekkers

 

[BoxsterCy]

He has absolutely earned my respect for standing behind that line and taking it on the chin 11 Saturdays this year, coming up on 12.

The yardage and completion numbers are probably a bit inflated from where they should be. Since Iowa State can't run the ball, Dekkers has dropped back an insane amount and attempted far more passes than any other Big 12 QB. Dekkers as thrown 433 times this year. The next guy is Spencer Sanders at 368, but the rest of the pack is 100+ behind him.

That sounds like Lynn Dickey on the KSU team 50 years ago. Just fill the air with footballs but not win much but the stats were good. That was sort of their jam back than in a very tough Big 8.

 

[cycfan1]

I think people who want to dismiss him completely are absurd.

I think with a solid running game he could be quite good. Hopefully the staff gets the offensive line and scheme to a point where Norton can eat up chunk yards next year and give him time.

Not to dismiss his accomplishments this year, but I think that most of the reason the running game is poor is Dekkers fault.

We run a slow zone read offense, with a QB that cannot make a read or isn't fast enough to matter on the read. He should not be in this position.

I dont think he should be replaced by anymeans, but the offense has to be restructured to suit his strengths. You need a freshman Brock Purdy to run 'this' offense who is okay to run around and make plays.

 

[iastatehunter]

Was surprised by how proficient Dekkers looks from a stats perspective so looked into yards per point scored for the top 100 total yard teams. Iowa State is at 18 yards per point scored when the average of the top 100 is 13.5 (~3.5 standard deviations from the mean). I'm sure average starting field position would explain a lot of it, but I think the offenses issue is converting production into points. For comparison, Iowa's offense is atrocious from a total yards perspective but is 14.5 yards per point (less than 1 STDev) so they are significantly better at converting their production into points.

Was curious about where we sit against every team in FBS... At least we aren't Northwestern

 

[VeloClone]

Not to dismiss his accomplishments this year, but I think that most of the reason the running game is poor is Dekkers fault.

We run a slow zone read offense, with a QB that cannot make a read or isn't fast enough to matter on the read. He should not be in this position.

I dont think he should be replaced by anymeans, but the offense has to be restructured to suit his strengths. You need a freshman Brock Purdy to run 'this' offense who is okay to run around and make plays.

It is silly to blame the lack of running game on Dekkers even if ISU does run a bit of zone read. On straight hand offs ISU can't generate anything and that is not Dekker's fault - but I guess it could be since I haven't seen him block many DL or LBs.

 

[CloneFan65]

I think Kansas, didn't Gilbert miss one or two late kicks? I know we didn't score but we certainly were in position.

God this season sucks so bad. If we were - below average on offense we'd be 6-6 or maybe 7-5.
If we were average on offense we could have won 8-9

I'll go one step further. If we weren't one of the worst teams in the country in the red zone, we could have 10 wins. We have had more total yards than our opponent in 10 of the 11 games. Unfortunately 6 times this year we have had more total yards than our opponent and still lost.

 

[cycfan1]

It is silly to blame the lack of running game on Dekkers even if ISU does run a bit of zone read. On straight hand offs ISU can't generate anything and that is not Dekker's fault - but I guess it could be since I haven't seen him block many DL or LBs.

Certainly would help with better RB's, not saying the running game has been good.
Just zero respect to the zone read, and its too slow developing.

As mentioned in previous threads, the defense continually retools for the players they have. The offense needs to do the same. We cannot run last years offense with Dekkers as QB.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

Was curious about where we sit against every team in FBS... At least we aren't Northwestern

View attachment 105810

That certainly paints a picture, woof!

 

[Turn2]

Iowa game this year

There were over 8 minutes left after that score. I believe the correct answer is Texas, in 2020:

Football vs Texas on 11/27/2020 - Box Score - Iowa State University Athletics

The official box score of Football vs Texas on 11/27/2020

cyclones.com

 

[LeaningCy]

As others have mentioned, our O Line has been absolutely atrocious this year.

Stats and definitions from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa/sp/overallol/2022

Iowa State's Offensive Line Rankings Through Week 12, 11/21/22:

Run-blocking stats
Line Yards per Carry: 125th
- For 2018, we are experimenting with a new definition for college line yardage based on film study and generalization. Instead of the ALY figure FO used for the NFL, this one is tighter: the line gets credit for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards (instead of 0-4) and 50% credit for yards 4-8 (instead of 5-10). Anything over 8 yards is quantified as a highlight opportunity, and credit goes to the runner. As with the pro definition, lost yardage still counts for 125%. (Garbage time is filtered out for all line yardage averages.)

Standard Downs Line Yards per Carry: 118th
- The raw, unadjusted per-carry line yardage for a team on standard downs (first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer).

Passing Downs Line Yards per Carry: 122nd
- The same unadjusted averages for rushing on passing downs.

Opportunity Rate: 129th
- The percentage of carries (when four yards are available) that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job, so to speak.

Power Success Rate: 109th
- This is the same as on the NFL side -- percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.

Stuff Rate: 107th
- Same as STUFFED on the NFL side -- percentage of carries by running backs that are stopped at or before the line of scrimmage.

Pass-blocking stats
Sack Rate: 50th
- Unadjusted sack rate for all non-garbage time pass attempts.

Standard Downs Sack Rate: 78th
- Unadjusted sack rate for standard downs pass attempts.

Passing Downs Sack Rate: 26th
- Unadjusted sack rate for passing downs pass attempts.

 

[BoxsterCy]

It's for this exact reason that I don't place much stock in that raw stats. We're basically having Dekkers run a pseudo-Air Raid offense -- his volume is massive. I'd feel better about that if numbers like INT, sack rate, Y/A, etc. were better than they are now. Last I checked, while the basic stats for Dekkers looked good, the advanced stats painted a different picture.

Now, could coaching changes help that? Maybe. But we don't have much of a history of QB improvement year over year with Campbell.

Throwing a lot with a slow play tempo just isn't a true air-raid. With the tempo we seem to use wouldn't that be the Turtle Raid?

 

[CascadeClone]

Jesus. Didn’t realize the discrepancy was that bad.

Ironically for a team that wants to have a "power" attitude, be balanced, etc - the staff have tended to give up on the run too early and often, imho. Not just this year, but last year too.

There's been moments when the run game was working, and they've gone away from it inexplicably. There's been moments when it wasn't working, and they just gave up on it - too early imho. I get it isn't working as well as they want, but you can't give up on it and limit your playbook.

 

[Billups06]

This is probably true or close to true. According to Big 12 stats Dekkers, Duggan (TCU), Shapen (BU), and Smith (TTU) have all played 11 games but haven't some of those even missed part of games due to injury?
- Duggan only had 3 attempts at Colorado to start the season.
- Smith started off the season averaging 42.6 attempts per game in the first 5 games but has only attempted 8 passes since even though he has appeared in all of the games.

I believe you are correct. Duggan wasn't the starter in the opener, I believe TCU's starter was injured late in game 1. TTU moved away from Smith as a true QB; they still play him in wildcat/RB situations (scored against ISU) but doesn't attempt many passes.

In Duggan's and Shapen's situations, their offenses have a true rushing attack.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Ironically for a team that wants to have a "power" attitude, be balanced, etc - the staff have tended to give up on the run too early and often, imho. Not just this year, but last year too.

There's been moments when the run game was working, and they've gone away from it inexplicably. There's been moments when it wasn't working, and they just gave up on it - too early imho. I get it isn't working as well as they want, but you can't give up on it and limit your playbook.

I agree with this. It’s almost like they have a longer term script and #X possession is going to be a “passing possession” and possession #X is going to be a “running possession”.

 

[CascadeClone]

I agree with this. It’s almost like they have a longer term script and #X possession is going to be a “passing possession” and possession #X is going to be a “running possession”.

I think that once something doesn't work two times, they just give up throw it out rest of the game. Thus we end up seeing the same 6 "safe" plays over and over.

 

[PSYclone22]

 

[joefrog]

I'll go one step further. If we weren't one of the worst teams in the country in the red zone, we could have 10 wins. We have had more total yards than our opponent in 10 of the 11 games. Unfortunately 6 times this year we have had more total yards than our opponent and still lost.

That's because of CampbellBall.

Risk aversion in the Red Zone and inefficient kicking costs us points and wins.

Teams happily give us yards because they know we won't go for the score.

 

[PSYclone22]

That's because of CampbellBall.

Risk aversion in the Red Zone and inefficient kicking costs us points and wins.

Teams happily give us yards because they know we won't go for the score.

Can you define CampbellBall as if it's something real?

No team is "giving" another team yards.

 

[LeaningCy]

Throwing a lot with a slow play tempo just isn't a true air-raid. With the tempo we seem to use wouldn't that be the Turtle Raid?

Slow and steady wins the race makes you 1-6 in one score games