2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
If we can get 2 of the 5 of @Tech, @WVU, @KU, @Houston, @ Zona, I'd sign up for it. My hope is we can do 16-4 or better.
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The media will build up a couple B1G teams as monsters in the next 2 months. Also, "The Big XII is down this year." Haven't you heard?
I wouldn't pay attention to bracket projections from Team Rankings website. I don't know what their algorithm/formula is for it, but it's notoriously terrible. Rank 177 out of 179 brackets historically at Bracket Matrix.
And 4 of those 5 are in the next 9 games.
If we split the rest of the schedule into "next 9" and "last 9", the next 9 is tough and key to the season - the last 9 is pretty easy, compared to recent conference schedules, with only @Houston in the middle - then Arizona coming to Hilton in early March (they could be rolling... or dead, who knows with that team)
The next 9 has two key, tough, stretches -
after the Utah game we go @Tech, KU in Hilton, @WVU. Two really tough places to play against potentially good, but relatively unknown teams, with Bill Self and company coming to Ames in between. 2/3 would be a success - 1/3 wouldn't be the end of the word.
Then a brief breather with UCF coming to town, before we play the two Sat/Mon turnarounds - @ASU/@AU; then the next weekend KSU / @KU- maybe KSU will still be a dumpster fire, but that's a huge trap game, especially if we in Arizona and are looking to head to Lawrence a Top 5 team. (Kansas plays @ Baylor that Saturday!)
3 of 5 would be great, but I'd throw ASU in there too. That AZ/ASU trip will be interesting. A sweep would be awesome, one of 2, ok.
Cusp of a #1 seed on Torvik...
Looking very good for Milwaukee so far...
Cleveland = #7 Florida, #9 Kentucky
Denver = #11 Mississippi St., #12 UCLA
Lexington = #1 Auburn, #2 Tennessee
Milwaukee = #5 Iowa St., #5 Illinois
Providence = #13 Kansas, #14 Michigan
Raleigh = #3 Duke, #4 Alabama
Seattle = #15 Texas A&M, #16 Gonzaga
Wichita = #6 Houston, #10 Marquette
Staying ahead of 1/2 of Illinois or Kansas should lock in Milwaukee for the first weekend.
Indianapolis would be very nice for the second weekend...
Looking very good for Milwaukee so far...
Cleveland = #7 Florida, #9 Kentucky
Denver = #11 Mississippi St., #12 UCLA
Lexington = #1 Auburn, #2 Tennessee
Milwaukee = #5 Iowa St., #5 Illinois
Providence = #13 Kansas, #14 Michigan
Raleigh = #3 Duke, #4 Alabama
Seattle = #15 Texas A&M, #16 Gonzaga
Wichita = #6 Houston, #10 Marquette
Staying ahead of 1/2 of Illinois or Kansas should lock in Milwaukee for the first weekend.
Indianapolis would be very nice for the second weekend...
SEC is tough but those teams are going to separate once they start playing each other. I don’t see any way possible one conference gets theee #1 seeds
They won’t, but it could be close. Depends on how well and Houston do as the season progresses. I think the ones, if i had to guess now, will be Auburn, ISU, Duke, and another SEC team.
Agree right now it would be ISU, Auburn, Tennessee and Duke which would make good sense in my opinion.
In terms of March success, I think the belief in them turning it up is basically true philosophically speaking. There isn’t a system that prevents outlier (5%) from ruining a season, or that it won’t show up March
Where it matters is in winning regular season games that in theory set you up with a more forgiving path on March. We didn’t exactly grind out wins on random Tuesday winter nights, and that left a few Hoiberg and Prohm teams facing a tougher challenge in ncaa
For me , that Royce team in particular a missed opportunity, and is a Sweet 16 or better had they been more consistent in the regular season. The following year we were better than a 10 seed, and our tournament performance good enough for S16 had we been a better seed
16-4 seems aggressive to me as 10/16 teams are top 52 in the NET and everyone knows K-State is a dangerous team despite their current NET ranking...
I'd be very happy with 15-5 or 14-6, as long as we defend home court. Then all you have to do is win roughly half the games on the road, which we already have one. Here is a teamcast on Torvik I love to use (mostly later in the year)
Teamcast for Iowa St. - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
barttorvik.com
If you don't think we win the tournament in KC, then I would say 15-5 and 1-1 in the conference tournament, which may also get you into the #1 seed, depending on who the losses are to.
I made a chart with Torvik data and a wag adjustment for home/away a week or so ago. It looks like this:
Utah should be cake, but the next 3 games are huge for how this season is going to turn out. 3 of the top 7 difficulty.
Also note the big drop off for those "easy" games. 6 of those 9 games are from week 10 -- so 6 "easy" games out of the last 11. Compared to only 3 of the first 9. And at KSU is week 10, and the hardest of the easy games.
Reference, ISU is 950 on this scale, 990 at home.
