2024-2025 MBB computer projections thread

[NoCreativity]

No, haven't seen them much. Hopefully ISU can defend better on their own end.

Weren't you someone who didn't even watch games because of how much anxiety they gave you? What were you so worried about?

Lol, sometimes I watch, sometimes i don't. I'm just giving you a hard time. Happy New Year!

 

[clone96cr]

Makes WVU the currently leader IMO. But without Tucker they will drop some. That is not a team I am exited for ISU to play.

Or, maybe KU is just fraudulent?

 

[Cyclonepride]

Definitely helps but...

(1.) Obviously it is very early. We need to worry about winning our own games (and Baylor on Saturday is no pushover... nobody is in this league) before we settle into more of a horserace.

(2.) I still think Houston is going to be our main competition. We play Kansas home/home, which likely will be a 1-1 split, and go to Houston. But Houston doesn't have to come to Hilton.

That's almost like spotting Houston one game in the conference race (and a very strong head-to-head tiebreaker if they win for seeding in the Big 12 tournament, though technically my understanding of the conference race is only your win/loss record matters and not any tiebreakers for hardware).



I don't want to be a Negative Nancy about the #3 in the country according to the AP poll, but I am roughly in a similar place. This team is very good but the defense is not Final Four caliber.

Yet. At least.

I hate the "they can turn it on when they need it argument." Two problems...

(1.) What if you run into a team with incredible offensive firepower (e.g., Auburn in Maui, Illinois in Boston last season, etc.) and you try to "turn it on" and find out all the sudden that you cannot?

(2.) It's playing with fire. Why not play better defense the whole game (we have at least eight viable guys to play, so plenty of fouls/stamina) so you're up say five at the under-four timeout and not tied? I feel better when teams are already close to put away at the end of games. Leave the door open, and eventually the other team is going to have some guy who performs some heroics to beat you and/or somebody like Gilbert or Jones will try to perform some heroics to win the game but... maybe Gilbert dribbles the ball off his foot or misses a shot at the rim with no whistle and we're furious but it ain't comin'... or Jones misses a big-time three.

And come late March... that's it. Your season is over. Second weekend again.

Great but not the transcendent ambitions we have of making it to San Antonio.

No pushovers, but no super-monsters either. Unless that super-monster is us.

 

[Clone95]

I think this team has something that you can’t quantify with metrics. I won’t be worried that we won’t make the final 4 if we go into the tourney with with #3 offense but only #45 defense.

 

[rochclone]

Definitely helps but...

(1.) Obviously it is very early. We need to worry about winning our own games (and Baylor on Saturday is no pushover... nobody is in this league) before we settle into more of a horserace.

(2.) I still think Houston is going to be our main competition. We play Kansas home/home, which likely will be a 1-1 split, and go to Houston. But Houston doesn't have to come to Hilton.

That's almost like spotting Houston one game in the conference race (and a very strong head-to-head tiebreaker if they win for seeding in the Big 12 tournament, though technically my understanding of the conference race is only your win/loss record matters and not any tiebreakers for hardware).



I don't want to be a Negative Nancy about the #3 in the country according to the AP poll, but I am roughly in a similar place. This team is very good but the defense is not Final Four caliber.

Yet. At least.

I hate the "they can turn it on when they need it argument." Two problems...

(1.) What if you run into a team with incredible offensive firepower (e.g., Auburn in Maui, Illinois in Boston last season, etc.) and you try to "turn it on" and find out all the sudden that you cannot?

(2.) It's playing with fire. Why not play better defense the whole game (we have at least eight viable guys to play, so plenty of fouls/stamina) so you're up say five at the under-four timeout and not tied? I feel better when teams are already close to put away at the end of games. Leave the door open, and eventually the other team is going to have some guy who performs some heroics to beat you and/or somebody like Gilbert or Jones will try to perform some heroics to win the game but... maybe Gilbert dribbles the ball off his foot or misses a shot at the rim with no whistle and we're furious but it ain't comin'... or Jones misses a big-time three.

And come late March... that's it. Your season is over. Second weekend again.

Great but not the transcendent ambitions we have of making it to San Antonio.

It is realistically us and Houston. Baylor might be a sleeper but every other squad in the Big 12 isn’t sniffing 13-7.

I do agree that we need to tighten up things on defense and take better care of the ball. There are really just 4-5 teams in the country that are matchup problems for us. (Auburn, Alabama, Uconn and Duke) Our depth is a luxury that we have never had. The three guards of Lipsey, Jones and Gilbert rival Tinsley, Horton and Nurse. So difficult with those three guards and then Momcilivic, Jefferson and Jackson. Chat field and Hiese create great depth and Nojus plus Watson are adequate deep bench pieces.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Or, maybe KU is just fraudulent?

In terms of consistently play like an elite team, sure

It wouldn’t be unheard of for a team that added so many high volume guys to take some time to develop into a consistent team

 

[CychiatricWard]

This argument was made during the Hoiberg years.

"Sure the offense is fun, but the defense isn't good. That problem will put a ceiling on their success."

"No no no! You don't get it! They can turn it on when they need to! And they have some absolute killers who know how to close out games at the end like Royce White and Georges Niang!"

Maybe that argument is true 95% of the time. But that 5% can ruin a season.

The defense has actually trended slightly down on Torvik so far...

View attachment 140331

It is roughly "steady" at 95 adjusted points given up per 100 possessions right now.

The good news? If they can hold at 95, then that would tie WVU for #19 defense in the country. That level of defense (a good one but not a great one) with the #6 offense is truly scary in March.

Which I 100% think we can do. I will say it till I’m blue in the face but changing out our mainstay bigs along with another guard and less than heathy Lipsey means we are going through our lumps. But, I fully expect our defense to continue to tighten up as the season progresses.

 

[Clone95]

Have you started studying Baylor yet to figure out ways we might get beat by them?

There’s people on here that are going to tell us why we should worry about Utah coming into Hilton next Tuesday and saying they’re being “realistic” about it.

 

[NATEizKING]

Front court is more skilled and bulkier, but not as quick. Best lineup for the trapping D has been when we go small this year. Big Rob was incredibly quick on his feet and with his hands for a big guy. Thinking if we can stay top 10 offense and top 40 defense it will be a really good/great season. Excited to watch it play out.

We need way better than top 40 D. I'm here for a natty.

 

[Bestaluckcy]

We need way better than top 40 D. I'm here for a natty.

Let’s win the conference first. Been a quarter century since I watched that last happen.

 

[ForeverIowan]

It is realistically us and Houston. Baylor might be a sleeper but every other squad in the Big 12 isn’t sniffing 13-7.

I do agree that we need to tighten up things on defense and take better care of the ball. There are really just 4-5 teams in the country that are matchup problems for us. (Auburn, Alabama, Uconn and Duke) Our depth is a luxury that we have never had. The three guards of Lipsey, Jones and Gilbert rival Tinsley, Horton and Nurse. So difficult with those three guards and then Momcilivic, Jefferson and Jackson. Chat field and Hiese create great depth and Nojus plus Watson are adequate deep bench pieces.

If we can keep pace with Houston heading into the final stretch of the season I think we are in great position. Houston has a brutal stretch to end conference play.

Baylor
@Arizona
@Arizona State
Iowa State
@TTech
Cincy
Kansas
@Baylor

7 of their final 8 games against top 7 teams in the conference (per KenPom).

 

[CloniesForLife]

That game will be good for the defensive metrics

 

[dahliaclone]

That game will be good for the defensive metrics

Kenpom we already went from 18 to 7 just from this game

 

[NorthCyd]

Kenpom we already went from 18 to 7 just from this game

That's awesome but also kind of ridiculous that one game can move it that much.

 

[dahliaclone]

Anyone know what Iowas Defense efficiency was rated before the wisky game? They are 131st now. Yowza.

 

[alarson]

Anyone know what Iowas Defense efficiency was rated before the wisky game? They are 131st now. Yowza.

Don't know about kenpom, but looking at games through the day before on torvik they went from 93 to 124

 

[FerShizzle]

Anyone know what Iowas Defense efficiency was rated before the wisky game? They are 131st now. Yowza.

81st

101.3 was their actual ADJDE I think.

 

[dahliaclone]

81st

101.3 was their actual ADJDE I think.

Holy mama

 

[FerShizzle]

Holy mama

Ya. It was an all timer. The kind of game coaches get fired for. Ts and Ps for the franimal.

 

[Sigmapolis]

@NWICY

Torvik gave the Baylor game a 99 and ADJD of...

76.5

Best of the season so far!

Up to #15 defense with preseason effects and #22 defense counting only data from this season.

They won't be that good every night. Houston has the best defense in the country so far and gives up an adjusted 84.4 points per 100 possessions. But if they can maintain something like this...

...the sky really is the limit.