2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[CascadeClone]

Floyd standings:
W Floyd
TT 5 2
ISU 5 1
UH 5 1
KSU 4 1
KU 4 1
TCU 4 1
BAY 3 0
UCF 3 0
TEX 3 0
OU 3 -1
CIN 3 -1
BYU 3 -1
WV 2 -1
OSU 1 -3

 

[Malty Flannel]

Front page of ESPN MBB this morning. Quite a bit of analytical support in the article
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...-iowa-state-utah-state-enter-uconn-stays-no-1

 

[CoachHines3]

Floyd standings:
W Floyd
TT 5 2
ISU 5 1
UH 5 1
KSU 4 1
KU 4 1
TCU 4 1
BAY 3 0
UCF 3 0
TEX 3 0
OU 3 -1
CIN 3 -1
BYU 3 -1
WV 2 -1
OSU 1 -3

also a quick S/O Dan Becker on Twit machine:

 

[bawbie]

Houston has a pretty big lead for projected 1st place now. And Tech took a big jump for projected 2nd or 3rd.

View attachment 122981

Wow, that pretty clearly visibly falls into 5 tiers right now

1) Houston by themselves

2) ISU, TTU, BYU - likely between 2nd and 5th

3) TCU, Kansas, Baylor - likely between 4th and 7th

4) Cincy, OU, Horns Down, KSU, UCF - likely between 7th and 12th

5) WVU and OSU clearly in 13th and 14th

Realistically the BigXII gets 10 into the tourney max, so that means 2 of the ones in Tier 4 don't make it.

 

[interrobang]

Wow, that pretty clearly visibly falls into 5 tiers right now

1) Houston by themselves

2) ISU, TTU, BYU - likely between 2nd and 5th

3) TCU, Kansas, Baylor - likely between 4th and 7th

4) Cincy, OU, Horns Down, KSU, UCF - likely between 7th and 12th

5) WVU and OSU clearly in 13th and 14th

Realistically the BigXII gets 10 into the tourney max, so that means 2 of the ones in Tier 4 don't make it.

Yeah you could maybe combine 2 and 3 into a tier, but definitely shows some of the separation starting to happen.

 

[CoachHines3]

 

[1100011CS]

ISU to make Final Four is +900 on Draft Kings, which is 9-1. They're 35-1 to win the whole thing.

After yesterday Iowa State is up to second-most-likely to win the Big 12 on DK, at 11-2 odds. Houston is the prohibitive favorite, though, at 4-7.

I got ISU to win the regular season conference at +3000 at the beginning of the season

 

[bosco]

View attachment 123007

Offensive rank 51. Excellent.

 

[1100011CS]

View attachment 123007

It says projected record 23-8, 12-6 but only projects 2 more losses. What am I missing?

 

[Urbandale2013]

It says projected record 23-8, 12-6 but only projects 2 more losses. What am I missing?

Cumulative percentage of losses. 2 51% wins equals a 1-1 record.

 

[interrobang]

It says projected record 23-8, 12-6 but only projects 2 more losses. What am I missing?

Missing the percentages. Texas/Cincinnati are both close to 50% so could go either way. But above 50% so gives us the win in his predictions.

 

[bawbie]

It says projected record 23-8, 12-6 but only projects 2 more losses. What am I missing?

Projected record is a combination of percent chances to win over the set of games, not each individual game.

For example, if you play 10 games and have a 60% chance to win each game, you'll be favored in all 10, but projected to go 6-4 (roughly)

 

[NiceMarmot]

It says projected record 23-8, 12-6 but only projects 2 more losses. What am I missing?

Multi-event Probability: Multiplication Rule - Data Science Discovery

Data Science Discovery is a introduction to Data Science and related topics by The University of Illinois.

discovery.cs.illinois.edu

 

[Dirt Boy 2]

View attachment 123007

Man, I would swap Texas and Baylor as wins. Baylor has tended to wilt under pressure defense.

 

[bawbie]

Man, I would swap Texas and Baylor as wins. Baylor has tended to wilt under pressure defense.

But Texas really isn't very good. Abmas and Disu are excellent, but they are really a two man team most of the time and Disu has had 4 fouls in 5 of his 6 starts (he was hurt most of non-conf)

 

[MeanDean]

4) Cincy, OU, Horns Down, KSU, UCF - likely between 7th and 12th

5) WVU and OSU clearly in 13th and 14th

Realistically the BigXII gets 10 into the tourney max, so that means 2 of the ones in Tier 4 don't make it.

Please, please, let it be OUT.

 

[cyfan92]

But Texas really isn't very good. Abmas and Disu are excellent, but they are really a two man team most of the time and Disu has had 4 fouls in 5 of his 6 starts (he was hurt most of non-conf)

We should be able to guard Texas' backcourt. Abmas and Hunter are small and are great ball handlers. Also, Texas doesn't really have a ton of depth, so I could see our defense wearing their team down. Saying all that, I feel that guarding Disu and Mitchell will be the key to winning in Austin. They have the advantage on the wing.

After @UCF, I think our best chance for a road W is in Austin.

 

[WalkingCY]

3) TCU, Kansas, Baylor - likely between 4th and 7th

4) Cincy, OU, Horns Down, KSU, UCF - likely between 7th and 12th

5) WVU and OSU clearly in 13th and 14th

Realistically the BigXII gets 10 into the tourney max, so that means 2 of the ones in Tier 4 don't make it.

Hopefully one of them is that BS school KSU.

 

[ISUCY23]

I got ISU to win the regular season conference at +3000 at the beginning of the season

Same

 

[bawbie]

Hopefully one of them is that BS school KSU.

Lunardi currently has TCU and Texas as last 4 in and KSU and Cincy as first 4 out (and UCF off the bubble)

I was surprised by TCU being that low!