2022 Stock Market
- Thread starter BCClone
- Start date
I think the market is reacting to honesty from the fed and a clear path laid out ahead. Stability, consistency; doesn’t matter if it’s not “good news”.
Fed and MMM are laughable
Balance sheet "reduction" is a joke. By summer 2023 the market will start demanding QE again.
Most forecasts call for a late 2023 recession. So we have maybe 12 months of balance sheet reductions left? At the stated reduction rates, we are only going to shed $1T of the balance sheet, despite adding $2T of the pandemic.
Of course the market is happy that the fed doesn't want to take away their bottle
Balance sheet "reduction" is a joke. By summer 2023 the market will start demanding QE again.
Most forecasts call for a late 2023 recession. So we have maybe 12 months of balance sheet reductions left? At the stated reduction rates, we are only going to shed $1T of the balance sheet, despite adding $2T of the pandemic.
Of course the market is happy that the fed doesn't want to take away their bottle
My retirement savings has lost about a years worth of income so far. That doesn't even factor in the out of control inflation. Hard to complain though when I haven't had a negative year in almost 14 years. 2018 was about break even.
Oh obviously that’s the reason, and not the reason that everybody knows is the real reason but can’t say in this thread. Lol.
KidSilverhair
Well-Known Member
My government TSP account is rather set up conservatively (gradually adjusting to a very conservative income-only plan by 2025), and yet when I checked it at the end of April it had lost almost everything it had gained in 2021. My April 30 number was just a little bit higher than December 30 of 2020. That’s … not great.
The account gained around 9% in 2020 and almost 5% last year, so that made me happy, but I don’t like the negative numbers. I’m not investing in this account any more, since I retired at the end of 2018, but I haven’t had to start withdrawing either, so …
If I could just get a guaranteed 3% I think I could skate along comfortably until I was almost 100. It’s that “guaranteed” part that’s tough.
Now it's the guaranteed part along with inflation that worries me.
It puts things into perspective. When I was a 25 YO and was crying over a 15% loss in my 401k, it probably meant I lost $5k. The gains and loses are so much bigger as you get older.
Let's play "where's its bottom?" The S&P 500 that is.
37% decline from peak is typical bear market. That would be about 3,000 on the S&P or another 1,000 points to decline from here. They typically last about a year. The dot.com bear was about a 50% decline lasting 3 years and the housing bubble was shorter and I believe was a 57% decline.
I'll put the stop of this one at 3,200 by this time next year. Probably going to witness some massive rallies before we get there, which is typical during one of these.
Should be some great opportunity once this flushes out that anyone with a 5 year and longer time horizon will be the beneficiary of. Hopefully get back to Economics 101 regarding how the stock market should work.
37% decline from peak is typical bear market. That would be about 3,000 on the S&P or another 1,000 points to decline from here. They typically last about a year. The dot.com bear was about a 50% decline lasting 3 years and the housing bubble was shorter and I believe was a 57% decline.
I'll put the stop of this one at 3,200 by this time next year. Probably going to witness some massive rallies before we get there, which is typical during one of these.
Should be some great opportunity once this flushes out that anyone with a 5 year and longer time horizon will be the beneficiary of. Hopefully get back to Economics 101 regarding how the stock market should work.
