2022 Stock Market

KnappShack

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Let's play "where's its bottom?" The S&P 500 that is.
37% decline from peak is typical bear market. That would be about 3,000 on the S&P or another 1,000 points to decline from here. They typically last about a year. The dot.com bear was about a 50% decline lasting 3 years and the housing bubble was shorter and I believe was a 57% decline.
I'll put the stop of this one at 3,200 by this time next year. Probably going to witness some massive rallies before we get there, which is typical during one of these.
Should be some great opportunity once this flushes out that anyone with a 5 year and longer time horizon will be the beneficiary of. Hopefully get back to Economics 101 regarding how the stock market should work.

I'm pretty sure the stock market don't play by no fancy book learnin' ****. Econ 101?

Peesh......
 

ClonesFTW

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I've got a notable limit buy order on IWM at $170, that's the index I usually track/trade.
 

keepngoal

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I can barely hold out from buying AAPL at $142. That is buy right?

And when is DIS a buy? I mean... $102??!!
 

SCNCY

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Ugh, I have a lot of unrealized losses right now because I moved a lot of money in to my investment account at the beginning of the year. I also went a little on the riskier side by going more tech heavy. Going to be a tough year looking at it...
 

SCNCY

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I can barely hold out from buying AAPL at $142. That is buy right?

And when is DIS a buy? I mean... $102??!!

With the way things are going, it sounds like the market will continue to decrease in the near future. So buy a little bit at a time while it goes down would probably be the best strategy.
 

CascadeClone

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Oct 24, 2009
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Let's play "where's its bottom?" The S&P 500 that is.
37% decline from peak is typical bear market. That would be about 3,000 on the S&P or another 1,000 points to decline from here. They typically last about a year. The dot.com bear was about a 50% decline lasting 3 years and the housing bubble was shorter and I believe was a 57% decline.
I'll put the stop of this one at 3,200 by this time next year. Probably going to witness some massive rallies before we get there, which is typical during one of these.
Should be some great opportunity once this flushes out that anyone with a 5 year and longer time horizon will be the beneficiary of. Hopefully get back to Economics 101 regarding how the stock market should work.

I will play, wth. Only a fool times the market, so I am qualified.

I would think it will be worse than average, because global trade is so impacted, and suddenly bonds don't look so no-win. And it will take a long time to work thru the system too: inflation, China, Ukraine - none of these are quick fixes. So it's gonna drift down a while.

So put me down at 2,950 for the bottom. Everyone freaks out, then 3,000 becomes a base to work off.
 

SayMyName

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Jan 28, 2017
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ABQ
Active buyer over here today, deploying some cash that has been sitting on the sidelines for far too long. If things continue to slide, I'll be buying more. Individual equities, ETFs, MFs, indexes ... making moves.
 
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SCNCY

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DE beats earnings and raises guidance, falls 12%.

#wallstreetlogic

But I'm sure wall street analysts found a single thing in their earnings that they didn't care about before, and now all of a sudden, its the most important metric. So SELL!

Disclosure, I didn't read what their earnings are, so I don't know why the stock is falling.
 

JH4ISU

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Mar 27, 2006
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#wallstreetlogic

But I'm sure wall street analysts found a single thing in their earnings that they didn't care about before, and now all of a sudden, its the most important metric. So SELL!

Disclosure, I didn't read what their earnings are, so I don't know why the stock is falling.
Revenue missed estimates due to supply chain challenges - ie. demand is there but can't produce at the level they'd like. So I think that and continued supply chain challenges forecasted is their main concern, but that seems a little extreme to cause a 12% sale to me but who knows.
 
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SCNCY

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Revenue missed estimates due to supply chain challenges - ie. demand is there but can't produce at the level they'd like. So I think that and continued supply chain challenges forecasted is their main concern, but that seems a little extreme to cause a 12% sale to me but who knows.

If that's the reason, I agree, a little weak to drop this much.
 

cycfan1

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Nov 27, 2006
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I've bought a decent amount on the way down and will continue. Sold off some losers to get more Apple and Microsoft

Really liking the AAPL drop too, but when you look at long term chart its pretty surprising to me that we were only above current levels from June of last year on.

Little intrigued by WMT here. Know they missed guidance this week but if everyone continues to pull back on spending, it becomes pretty go to shopping destination.
 
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StevieISU23

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Thought Boeing was a steal at anything below $150.
Pumped that I bought in at $133!
Sigh.....now at $118
 
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fsanford

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Ocean Steamship lines like Maersk, and others are making record profits.
Revenue missed estimates due to supply chain challenges - ie. demand is there but can't produce at the level they'd like. So I think that and continued supply chain challenges forecasted is their main concern, but that seems a little extreme to cause a 12% sale to me but who knows.
So last year at this time it cost around $2000 a container from South China.
Most ocean contracts kick in in May.

This year the number to move a container is $9000 to 10,000.

Same can be said for trucking rates, throw in fuel surcharges, lack of labor, backlogs at warehouse + late freight due to port backlogs = this problem is going to be around for awhile.

However we are seeing from some of the big retailers a drop of orders, rather significant drops, because they see a drop in consumer demand, since the cost of food and fuel has gone up so much.

Eventually less demand will lead to a reset in the logistics industry. Which is absolutely needed.
 

SCarolinaCy

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Jun 20, 2011
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Great time to be just starting out and buying stock. Awful time to be in retirement and wishing you had sold all your stock just two months ago. $100,000 in growth stock two months ago drops 40% and is now worth only $60,000. In the next 3? years it increases 40%, it will be worth only $84,000.