2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

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TykeClone

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Oct 18, 2006
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ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.8%


Anyone want the odds for different scenarios, just ask -- they're easy to do.
I'd like to know how a 5-5 team could make the title game!
 

cyfan92

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Sep 20, 2011
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Way I see it, if ISU can take care of business against KU, Baylor, and WV, then they've got 3 shots to get to the title game by a win over OSU, KSU, or UT.
If we only have 2 losses or less at the end of the year. I'll feel pretty good about playing in Dallas. More than that and we'll need a lot of breaks.

However, I won't be getting my hopes up... Call me a debbie downer, but I've been hurt too many times by our dear cardinal and gold to put the cart before the horse. A win on Saturday won't change that as ISU isn't talented enough nor do we run the score up enough with CMC to overlook anyone (ex: Drake in 2018, TT last week, ULL a month ago)
 

cyclonepower

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If we only have 2 losses or less at the end of the year. I'll feel pretty good about playing in Dallas. More than that and we'll need a lot of breaks.

However, I won't be getting my hopes up... Call me a debbie downer, but I've been hurt too many times by our dear cardinal and gold to put the cart before the horse. A win on Saturday won't change that as ISU isn't talented enough nor do we run the score up enough with CMC to overlook anyone (ex: Drake in 2018, TT last week, ULL a month ago)
2 overall loses or 2 conf loses???
 
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cyfan92

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2 overall loses or 2 conf loses???
Conference losses. 2 conference loss Iowa State makes the championship.

We hold the tie-breaker against OU who probably runs the table if they can get past TCU on Saturday as they dominate Bedlam and have already beat TX
Okie St still has to play us, OU, TX and KSU (probably 2 losses)
K-State since they lost Skylar and will probably be an underdog in every game after KU this weekend (the diference may be their at WVU and at Baylor games were we get both at Jack Trice)
TCU already has 2 losses so it would take us losing three
WVU and Baylor need to win against OU or Texas to get into the conversation
 

HFCS

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Aug 13, 2010
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Iowa St.: 72.3% (49.4% 1st, 22.9% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 43.1% (21.6% 1st, 21.5% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 23.2% (7.1% 1st, 16.1% 2nd)

And if the Cyclones lose:

Oklahoma St.: 57.7% (37.7% 1st, 20.1% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 42.3% (23.1% 1st, 19.3% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 36.0% (14.9% 1st, 21.0% 2nd)

Massey expects us to lose to OSU, so that's already baked in to our 47.9% — that's why ISU isn't dropping with a loss as much as Oklahoma State does.
I'm sure our Cajuns loss understandably hurts us in a lot of projections. It's too recent for it not to.

KSU and ISU sunbelt losses followed by big 12 wins really tanked sagarin and other models where the big 12 has been #1 or #2 for most of the 20+ years I've followed them.
 
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Cycsk

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I was starting to look at travel arrangements for the Big 12 Championship game, but noticed that I couldn't find anything definitive about the date of the game. It makes sense that it will be on Dec 19th now that there may need to be a make-up game on Dec 12th.

However, the Big 12 website still has this: "All eyes will be on AT&T Stadium on December 5, 2020, as the Dr Pepper Big 12 Football Championship takes center stage."


I understand that things are going to change, but it would be really nice if they could at least tell us what things look like given the current situation, rather than leave very old info on their website.
 

nrg4isu

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It's currently set for December 12th, so long as OSU or Baylor aren't in the championship game. If OSU (or Baylor) makes the championship game, it would be December 19th. That's the current plan as of today.
 
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dualthreat

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It's currently set for December 12th, so long as OSU or Baylor aren't in the championship game. If OSU (or Baylor) makes the championship game, it would be December 19th. That's the current plan as of today.
I wonder how that will work if Baylor or osu are in the running. I guess if there is even a .01% chance they could make it, they’ll have to have it on the 19th right?
 

AuH2O

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I'd like to know how a 5-5 team could make the title game!
5-4 in conference. Say OSU goes 9-0, TCU, OU and TTU also go 5-4, KU, Baylor rise up and steal some games, etc.

Just an example:
OSU 9-0
ISU 5-4
TCU 5-4
OU 5-4
TTU 4-5
KSU 4-5
UT 4-5
WVU 4-5
Bay 4-5
KU 1-8
 
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nrg4isu

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I wonder how that will work if Baylor or osu are in the running. I guess if there is even a .01% chance they could make it, they’ll have to have it on the 19th right?
Maybe with 2 weeks left to play they can see who's been mathematically eliminated at that point and adjust the date if need be?

I think it'll be interesting to see if any other games need to be played on Dec 12th. What are the chances that no other games get postponed? and if one is, what are the chances that there's a common open date to replay prior to Dec 12?
 

VeloClone

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Maybe with 2 weeks left to play they can see who's been mathematically eliminated at that point and adjust the date if need be?

I think it'll be interesting to see if any other games need to be played on Dec 12th. What are the chances that no other games get postponed? and if one is, what are the chances that there's a common open date to replay prior to Dec 12?
What are the chances that it is another game involving Baylor?
 
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ZuriCyclone

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Nov 10, 2019
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I dont think OSU goes 9-0, their first loss is coming up on Saturday :D

5-4 in conference. Say OSU goes 9-0, TCU, OU and TTU also go 5-4, KU, Baylor rise up and steal some games, etc.

Just an example:
OSU 9-0
ISU 5-4
TCU 5-4
OU 5-4
TTU 4-5
KSU 4-5
UT 4-5
WVU 4-5
Bay 4-5
KU 1-8
 

Cycsk

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It's currently set for December 12th, so long as OSU or Baylor aren't in the championship game. If OSU (or Baylor) makes the championship game, it would be December 19th. That's the current plan as of today.

Makes sense. It is frustrating that the Big 12 site has old or vague info rather than this plan, especially for those of us trying to make travel plans.
 

ZuriCyclone

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Nov 10, 2019
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One thing I have noticed after watching our last three games , the BIG 12 refs have been kind to us compared to the previous years and lot of calls that should have gone against us have not been called.

Does anyone know if there has been a significant change in personal from the last few years. Has there been some behind the scene pressure from Jaimie.
 

Cycsk

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One thing I have noticed after watching our last three games , the BIG 12 refs have been kind to us compared to the previous years and lot of calls that should have gone against us have not been called.

Does anyone know if there has been a significant change in personal from the last few years. Has there been some behind the scene pressure from Jaimie.


 
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