2020 Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[CYme]

We have a new favorite! (And a mess of teams at the top.)

Odds of getting to the Big 12 Championship:
Iowa St.: 47.0% (27.3% 1st, 19.6% 2nd)
Texas: 35.4% (19.0% 1st, 16.4% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 35.2% (14.5% 1st, 20.7% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 33.7% (16.8% 1st, 16.9% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 33.2% (17.3% 1st, 15.8% 2nd)
West Virginia: 11.6% (4.2% 1st, 7.3% 2nd)
TCU: 2.5% (0.4% 1st, 2.1% 2nd)
Baylor: 1.5% (0.4% 1st, 1.1% 2nd)
Kansas and Texas Tech: nope

Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 13.1%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 11.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 11.0%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 9.7%
Oklahoma/Texas: 8.8%
Iowa St./Texas: 7.6%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 7.6%
Kansas St./Texas: 5.9%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 5.9%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 3.4%

ISU record chances:
4-6: 4.2%
5-5: 21.0%
6-4: 38.1%
7-3: 29.1%
8-2: 7.6%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.1%
6-4: 32.6%
7-3: 92.6%
8-2: 100.0%

Great way to start November!

 

[JRE1975]

If we are going to make it to the championship game, I really want us to win out so nobody call call it a fluke result, we would have earned the chance!

 

[SCarolinaCy]

TX QB always gets stronger down the wire in the close games. I see them winning out and being in the Championship. Hope I am wrong but don't see ISU being there. Lack discipline.

 

[BryceC]

Top 5 are all very close. What would the odds have been if OSU had won yesterday? I still think we would have wanted them to win.

 

[JM4CY]

We have a new favorite! (And a mess of teams in pretty good position.)

Odds of getting to the Big 12 Championship:
Iowa St.: 47.0% (27.3% 1st, 19.6% 2nd)
Texas: 35.4% (19.0% 1st, 16.4% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 35.2% (14.5% 1st, 20.7% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 33.7% (16.8% 1st, 16.9% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 33.2% (17.3% 1st, 15.8% 2nd)
West Virginia: 11.6% (4.2% 1st, 7.3% 2nd)
TCU: 2.5% (0.4% 1st, 2.1% 2nd)
Baylor: 1.5% (0.4% 1st, 1.1% 2nd)
Kansas and Texas Tech: nope

Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 13.1%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 11.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 11.0%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 9.7%
Oklahoma/Texas: 8.8%
Iowa St./Texas: 7.6%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 7.6%
Kansas St./Texas: 5.9%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 5.9%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 3.4%

ISU record chances:
4-6: 4.2%
5-5: 21.0%
6-4: 38.1%
7-3: 29.1%
8-2: 7.6%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.1%
6-4: 32.6%
7-3: 92.6%
8-2: 100.0%

Well... that’s pretty freakin’ cool.

 

[AuH2O]

We have a new favorite! (And a mess of teams in pretty good position.)

Odds of getting to the Big 12 Championship:
Iowa St.: 47.0% (27.3% 1st, 19.6% 2nd)
Texas: 35.4% (19.0% 1st, 16.4% 2nd)
Oklahoma: 35.2% (14.5% 1st, 20.7% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 33.7% (16.8% 1st, 16.9% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 33.2% (17.3% 1st, 15.8% 2nd)
West Virginia: 11.6% (4.2% 1st, 7.3% 2nd)
TCU: 2.5% (0.4% 1st, 2.1% 2nd)
Baylor: 1.5% (0.4% 1st, 1.1% 2nd)
Kansas and Texas Tech: nope

Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 13.1%
Iowa St./Kansas St.: 11.5%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 11.0%
Oklahoma St./Texas: 9.7%
Oklahoma/Texas: 8.8%
Iowa St./Texas: 7.6%
Kansas St./Oklahoma: 7.6%
Kansas St./Texas: 5.9%
Kansas St./Oklahoma St.: 5.9%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 3.4%

ISU record chances:
4-6: 4.2%
5-5: 21.0%
6-4: 38.1%
7-3: 29.1%
8-2: 7.6%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
5-5: 0.1%
6-4: 32.6%
7-3: 92.6%
8-2: 100.0%

How could ISUs chances at the CCG be so high at 7-3? There’s a really good chance that the loss will come to a team that also ends up 7-2 in conference.

 

[dualthreat]

Texas winning at Okie State really hurt, from what I can see when I run through the scenarios manually. There's a lot to play out still, obviously, but it seems like it made winning at Texas a lot more important for our chances of getting to the championship game.

It makes me sick to my stomach that now there is a legitimate (and even likely?) scenario where the championship game ends up being Oklahoma vs. Texas. Puke.

If Texas wins out with a win over us do we really deserve to be in the championship game?

honestly, regardless of what happened yesterday that is the case

 

[BCClone]

If I understand this stuff right I think it’s better if we would lose to Baylor or West Virginia then it is Texas or Kstate

 

[cyclonepower]

How could ISUs chances at the CCG be so high at 7-3? There’s a really good chance that the loss will come to a team that also ends up 7-2 in conference.

It was 94 something before Texas beat Ok St so didn’t drop that much...only thing I can come up with is there are still a lot of games to be played

 

[cyclonepower]

If I understand this stuff right I think it’s better if we would lose to Baylor or West Virginia then it is Texas or Kstate

Yes absolutely

 

[Dale]

How could ISUs chances at the CCG be so high at 7-3? There’s a really good chance that the loss will come to a team that also ends up 7-2 in conference.

Essentially, Massey (the ratings this uses) expects each of the five top teams to, on average, lose two remaining games. Thus, any team that loses only one more is in pretty good shape to get one of the two Championship Game slots.

 

[theshadow]

only thing I can come up with is there are still a lot of games to be played

Games left against the current top 6 (teams with 1 or 2 losses):
ISU - 3/4
KSU - 3/4
WVU - 3/4
UT - 3/4
OU - 2/4
OSU - 2/5

 

[Dale]

If I understand this stuff right I think it’s better if we would lose to Baylor or West Virginia then it is Texas or Kstate

Yes. Games remaining with at 4% or more impact on ISU's odds:

Iowa St. over Texas: 45.7% (30.7% to 76.4%)
Iowa St. over Kansas St.: 43.1% (20.7% to 63.8%)
Iowa St. over West Virginia: 33.8% (27.0% to 60.8%)
Iowa St. over Baylor: 25.7% (32.0% to 57.7%)
TCU over Oklahoma St.: 10.5% (41.9% to 52.4%)
Texas Tech over Oklahoma St.: 7.9% (45.0% to 52.9%)
Baylor over Oklahoma St.: 7.0% (43.8% to 50.8%)
Kansas St. over Oklahoma St.: 6.1% (44.1% to 50.2%)
Kansas over Texas: 6.0% (46.1% to 52.1%)
TCU over West Virginia: 4.9% (44.9% to 49.8%)
Kansas St. over Texas: 4.6% (45.1% to 49.7%)
Oklahoma over Oklahoma St.: 4.5% (43.9% to 48.4%)

 

[Thomasrickj]

If I understand this stuff right I think it’s better if we would lose to Baylor or West Virginia then it is Texas or Kstate

Yeah, or we could just win outright and not have to worry.

 

[DurangoCy]

Having 3 of 4 at home is going to be HUGE in my opinion. If we win out at home, we'll be in good shape. The Texas game is every bit as big as the OSU game in "locking" us in. Hoping we can handle business.

Fun conversations to have!

 

[Dale]

Top 5 are all very close. What would the odds have been if OSU had won yesterday? I still think we would have wanted them to win.

Ran the numbers: With everything else that happened yesterday, it would have had very little impact — 0.2% better for ISU having OSU win than OSU lose.

 

[BryceC]

Good to know. That's really interesting.

 

[LanningIsBakersDaddy]

Anyone know what the tie breaker looks like if OU, OSU, and ISU are all tied with two losses? Each team would have a 1-1 record in the pod of three teams. (Texas would have to drop one more game). What does it come down to then?

 

[BCClone]

Anyone know what the tie breaker looks like if OU, OSU, and ISU are all tied with two losses? Each team would have a 1-1 record in the pod of three teams. (Texas would have to drop one more game). What does it come down to then?

Who had the best win. Start at top of conference and move down.

 

[qwerty]

Anyone know what the tie breaker looks like if OU, OSU, and ISU are all tied with two losses? Each team would have a 1-1 record in the pod of three teams. (Texas would have to drop one more game). What does it come down to then?

I believe next level is record against the #4 team. Probably Texas so if we lost to them, not good Bob. OU wins that round and head to head then goes to OSU. If we take care of business at home, Texas is the whole enchilada for us.