2019-2020 Computer Projections Thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
- Start date
“Our power ratings give Iowa state a 53% chance to win” (?)
What you linked says the remaining odds to win and gives us 53% chance to beat Michigan. What am I missing?
Sorry -- I was posting two sources to give us a range.
TeamRankings gives us a 53% chance.
Bart Torvik gives us a 38% chance.
So there is a range there -- optimistic to pessimistic.
I should have clarified that I was referring to BT when I said Michigan was "slightly favored," which they are in that system by around two points.
The computers are saying a likely "close game" either way. I have a feeling this one comes down to a few key possessions in the end like Oregon State did.
Kenpom gives us 44% chance.
Win vs Michigan and those odds/numbers will jump tremendously. Personally I'm pessimistic, until the shots start falling at least at an average rate.
I have to think that big of a jump when the team simply wins a game they are supposed to win has less to do with that game and more to do with a bunch of other games moving other (tournament contender) teams around.
True, but I looked at BT before the game.
We were supposed to win by like ~15 but actually won by 28.
I know that extra 13 points of "garbage" against an overmatched opponent might not seem like much, but that is 25% of our real games this year.
Our game score against USM was a 96% -- by far our best game this year.
I think that performance pulled our ratings up significantly and, in the process, boosted our prospects. Stuff moves fast when the same size is so small still.
Here is my list of things I'm concerned about in order
- TH's health
- Defense
- Ball movement
- Rebounding
- Shot selection
- Reliance on TH for offense
- Defense
- TH's mins
- Free throws
- Defense
- 3pt %
Our adjusted defensive efficiency was really good against Southern Miss. That's the main reason for our overall profile improving.
Huh, I'm a little surprised we are favored over Michigan. But I haven't even looked at their schedule or scores.
Edit: Finished reading the rest of Sigs posts still cheering for the Clones anyway. Hoping for a good game either way, but a win sure will be better come March.
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We will likely be a 2-3 pt dog next week in the eyes of oddsmakers.
This team feels like a "good bad" team to me.
Against teams where ISU can force turnovers and turn those into points, they will look pretty darn good.
Against teams that play well and don't turn it over much, ISU will struggle to score enough in half court to keep up, wins will be tough, and they will look underwhelming.
Against teams where ISU can force turnovers and turn those into points, they will look pretty darn good.
Against teams that play well and don't turn it over much, ISU will struggle to score enough in half court to keep up, wins will be tough, and they will look underwhelming.
I know we've discussed it previously, but is the total # of games 30 instead of the actual 31 because it isn't "counting" the final B4A game yet? (Would explain why record projection was only 29 games prior to the tournament, when only one opponent was known for sure).
Although I'm skeptical of getting a bid with 14 losses (or fewer than 18 wins), this projection hints at how difficult it can be to NOT make the tournament. We have zero quality wins so far, wins are low-NET level. Still projected as a 9 seed. (I think that seeding skews optimistic given the data)
The key part of that projection is "if selected". I don't know, but I can only assume every single team in the country has an x percent chance at making the tournament. That's statistically possible for everyone right now even for the worst team in the country. If we continue to trend towards 16-14 our percentage is going to get lower and lower.
That was certainly a large swing.
And for later today...
Going 1-1 versus Seton Hall would probably be sufficient.
Bart Torvik agrees we've got about a 36-39% chance against SHU...
Still even odds to make the tournament according to this website...
Going 5-0 in the run-up to Big 12 play would feel very nice...
Seton Hall (again) and Iowa are not going to be easy, however.
Going 5-0 in the run-up to Big 12 play would feel very nice...
Seton Hall (again) and Iowa are not going to be easy, however.
A 5-0 run before conference play would be really nice.
4-1 seems most likely.
4-1 seems most likely.
