2019-2020 Computer Projections Thread

Discussion in 'Mens Basketball' started by Sigmapolis, Nov 5, 2019.

  1. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    So the consensus seemed to be a new thread for the new year.

    So here it is!

    I am going to port over a few of the best posts to start it off again...

    * * *​

    Computer projections thread for the 2019-2020 season!

    [​IMG]
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    And the Bart Torvik projections for the year...

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Thank you for this analysis.

    As always, performances in close games will be key to the outcome of the season.
     
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  3. CoachHines3

    CoachHines3 Well-Known Member

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    sig you a top 3 poster in my eyes.
     
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  4. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Aw. Thank you. You're sweet.
     
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  5. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Not much change after that one...

    upload_2019-11-6_10-19-20.png
     
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  6. FinalFourCy

    FinalFourCy Well-Known Member

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    Really hope having multiple pg types helps in that.
     
  7. VeloClone

    VeloClone Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if beating the worst (or nearly worst, depending on who you ask) team in the country had less to do with going from a 42% chance of dancing to a 43% chance of dancing than other teams losing did.
     
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  8. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    upload_2019-11-9_22-36-47.png

    My overall thoughts...

    -- I liked and even loved some of the things I saw. I hated some of the things I saw. I knew this would be a young and inconsistent team that would sometimes be maddening, but I hope they figure out how to emphasize the good things.

    -- Not giving up on things. We hung on tight and came back a few times in a road environment in the second game of the season. I have a feeling this is one we will miss come March, but at the same time I do feel good about a lot.

    Player by player...

    -- Haliburton is a beast. He reminds me more and more of Monté. The second-half Tyrese who took over the game... that is going to be the guy we need this year.

    -- Conditt needs more minutes, either from the other posts or Zion Griffin. You can see him starting to get it, and I love the competitive fire that he has.

    -- Nixon needs to shoot less. Way less. Just play defense. He actually did a really good job against Tinkle in the second half (after they switched him onto him) despite the height difference. Tinkle hit some deep, contested threes to seal the game. I do not blame Nixon for that when he basically took him out of the game the previous 18 minutes.

    -- Still getting a feel for Bolton. I think he needs to drive more and shoot less.

    -- Not a ton to say about Jacobson and Solomon right now. Neither of them seemed at their best this game, and Conditt was clearly our best post today.

    -- Griffin did not play much, but he was 2/3 from three. Jackson needs to be more careful with the ball. I would have liked to have seen some of Grill again.

    Haliburton and Conditt have some good chemistry and fight in them. They probably have the highest two ceilings of anybody on the team. They need to make this year into their year if we are going to accomplish anything like what we want to accomplish.
     
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  9. FinalFourCy

    FinalFourCy Well-Known Member

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    Need more Conditt for sure, and that was probably true last year, as well. Likely at the expense of Young imo.

    When the bad version of Nixon is playing, I hope we need get Jackson or Grill in.
     
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  10. BryceC

    BryceC Well-Known Member

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    I think the second half showed how this team needs to play.

    Hali needs to be in control 100% of the time and commanding the offense.

    Nixon needs to guard the best perimeter player regardless of size.

    They need to find a minutes rotation that can keep Conditt fresh. He might have to frequently sub in and out or something. So far he’s been the best big.

    I like what Bolton is doing. Somebody needs to have that role. Bolton/Hali/Nixon/MJ/Conditt I think needs to be the heavy minutes guys.
     
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  11. Daserop

    Daserop Well-Known Member

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    I predict ISU will not make the NCAA tournament this season.
     
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  12. Gunnerclone

    Gunnerclone Well-Known Member

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    Anything else you feel the need to come on to the internet to **** on today? Go find a gf loser.
     
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  13. Daserop

    Daserop Well-Known Member

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    Says the individual who is personally insulting me over the internet. If you're going to continue to do this to other people at least be more creative.

    This is a prediction thread, all I did was stated my prediction.
     
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  14. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Hey now everybody -- this is the thread for the nerds and their calculators having civil conversations about the obvious superiority of Kirk to Picard.

    Take the flame wars elsewhere.

    Anyways, that loss yesterday did put a dent in our chances...

    upload_2019-11-10_13-28-40.png

    Win the next two gimme games, keep getting better and stronger, work out the kinks in the roles and the rotations, and play like we did in the second-half... and we'll be back on track. Taking a bite out of Michigan would put a lot of wind in the sails.

    That one especially stings for having had a 50-50 chance a few times late in the game...

    upload_2019-11-10_13-29-22.png

    Tinkle deserves a ton of credit. Those were some man-up shots. Tyrese missing 2/3 free throws late hurts, too. He needs to hit those if he is our alpha now.
     
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  15. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    That one helped slightly...

    upload_2019-11-13_10-30-55.png
     
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  16. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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  17. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    upload_2019-11-20_13-16-1.png

    I do not know what we did, but we rose from 34% to 46% in the past week.
     
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  18. BryceC

    BryceC Well-Known Member

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    How much does team rankings take their own preseason rankings into consideration at this point? I mean if they don't use much of their own ranking a single game at this point in the season could have a huge effect.
     
  19. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    It depends on the site. I think that you probably need to be at least ten games (or even 12-15 games) into a season for it to have enough data to "stand on its own" without using preseason projections or data from the previous season.

    To quote Bart Torvik's documentation on the same...

    Secret Sauce
    Here are the additional adjustments I make:

    • There's a recency bias—all games in the last 40 days count 100%, then degrade 1% per day until they're 80 days old, after which all games count 60%.
    • An adjustment that discounts blowouts in mismatches—if the margin of victory (MOV) is more than 10 points and the difference in Barthags is above a threshold, the game starts getting discounted. If the MOV is 20 points or higher, the discount is (Higher Barthag - Lower Barthag - .5) * 2. So if a team with a Barthag of .8000 is playing a team with a Barthag of .2000, and it wins by 20 points, the game value will be 1 - (.8 - .2 -.5) * 2, or 80%
    • As with Kenpom, there is also a preseason component that is phased out once a team has played 13 adjusted games (since not all games count for 100% of a game, it typically sticks around for 15 or 16 games).
    http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/p/every-possession-counts.html
     
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  20. Cyched

    Cyched Minister of Culture
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    Slightly favored to beat Michigan? I’d be tickled if we pulled that one out
     
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