2019-2020 Computer Projections Thread

Discussion in 'Mens Basketball' started by Sigmapolis, Nov 5, 2019.

  1. cyclones500

    cyclones500 Well-Known Member

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    Agree. Bad feeling a Hall sweeps us ... one of those hunches. "We came close on neutral court, we'll get it in Hilton." ... only to meet disappointment ... hope I'm wrong of course.

    Iowa will be no cakewalk, series rarely is and often is hard to predict. Prior to season that TCU game had to be closer to 60 percent, guessing.
     
  2. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    upload_2019-12-2_13-26-43.png

    We played Seton Hall tough and close until the last ~5 minutes.

    If we are remotely what we hope to be in the Big 12 this season, then we need to be able to take a situation like that (within five points either way against a ranked team in Hilton) and find a way to close it out. We are probably going to have at least a few chances like that this year in the Big 12, and if we win those games, we probably look back on this season as a modest success. If we lose them, then we probably look back on this year someday as a relative disappointment. I am looking forward to Sunday.

    As to Iowa, I have no handle on that game right now. The computers still like us more, but I know that game is just going to be an absolute brawler.
     
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  3. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    upload_2019-12-5_9-56-31.png

    The next two are so big right now.

    upload_2019-12-5_9-55-55.png
     
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  4. CoachHines3

    CoachHines3 Active Member

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  5. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    #45 Sigmapolis, Dec 5, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2019
    I am concerned about that game.

    Iowa is now ahead of us on Bart Torvik. We expected them to fall apart during this stretch, but they are actually turning in solid performances. Their recruiting class sucks, yes, but they have talent and experience on the roster now. It has a limited ceiling, but we are not exactly setting the world on fire right presently. I think we are pretty equal to each other.

    You know they are going to be 100% up and ready for that game. If we are anything less than that, I can easily see them rolling us in Hilton.

    Nothing would make the natives more restless around here.
     
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  6. FinalFourCy

    FinalFourCy Well-Known Member

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    Good things happen to moderately talented teams when you rebound and go to the FT line. Plus can make 3Ps.
     
  7. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    http://www.barttorvik.com/trank.php?&year=2020&t1l=Iowa&t2l=Iowa+St.#

    Some general observations --

    -- They are slightly more "extreme" than us, with a better offense and a worst defense, but both teams are much better on offense than on defense.
    -- Despite the complains about poor shooting on here, our effective FG% is actually higher than Iowa's (and ranked #65 nationally) so far this year.
    -- I think the largest source of our success, however limited so far, is that we (1.) avoid turning the ball over and (2.) generate a lot of turnovers ourselves.
    -- Those are like special teams plays in football, "hidden" possessions that we manufacture because TH does not turn it over much and we steal the ball.
    -- "Not turning the ball over" is not as sexy as a made three-pointer, but a turnover is as bad as missing a shot, so at least we are having those shots to take.
    -- They are a pretty good rebounding team. We are not.
    -- They are good at generating shots from the line (#64) nationally, but along with generating steals, we do not foul very much... We are the #9 team nationally at keeping teams off the line, so that will be a key interaction.
    -- Our 3% is bad, but our 2% is actually very high (#11 nationally). At least we make up for clanking the long ball by being very good at making two-pointers.
    -- Iowa is 0.2 wins above the bubble right now; we are -0.4 below it.
     
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  8. isufbcurt

    isufbcurt Well-Known Member

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  9. herbicide

    herbicide Well-Known Member

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    I know this is cliche speak, Iowa has an identity on offense, they know how to get points. We are still trying to figure it out. In a nutshell that is what scares me the most.

    If we have another abysmal game from 3pt land, we'll be in trouble.
     
  10. Cyched

    Cyched Minister of Culture
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    @Sigmapolis any insight as to what a win over SH would do for our tourney chances?
     
  11. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Bart Torvik's bracketology projections are weird because they project, "Would you make it if the selection show was today?" rather than, "Given there are a lot of games to play and a lot of potential outcomes, where might you end up by March?"

    Team Rankings is the latter. With it is mind that a lot could change going forward, we have roughly a 50-50 shot right now. However, if the tournament were to start this weekend, we would likely be out in the cold with our CV. We need more big wins.

    Those two concepts converge and eventually equal each other towards the end of the season but, right now, the former has a very narrow set of results and the latter a very wide set. I think I can trick Bart Torvik into giving us an estimate, at least.

    But you can kind of hybridize the two...

    upload_2019-12-5_11-32-25.png

    I told their model to assume we win against Seton Hall on Sunday.

    That boosted our bid % around 11%.

    So we probably go from roughly 52% to roughly 63% with a win.

    If we 2-0 versus Seton Hall and Iowa...

    upload_2019-12-5_11-33-25.png

    We go from roughly 52% up to 76%.

    If we drop both games, though...

    Well, nothing good.
     
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  12. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    #52 Sigmapolis, Dec 5, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2019
    I know we like making fun of some of their goofy or mouthier players, noting that plenty of their guys are not really high-major players (nor really are all of ours, too), and we like pointing out Garza's deficiencies on defense, but notice we never...

    -- make fun of Garza on offense
    -- make fun of Weiskamp really at all
    -- some of their younger guards have some potential, too

    Those two guys are some dudes -- flawed dudes, as basically every college player is in some way, but still good players. Good enough to finish in the middle of the Big Ten pack and exit from the first weekend of the NCAA tournament (and no better), but also good enough to beat the Cyclones in Hilton if we are napping or screwing around.

    I am looking forward to an exciting game, but this one will be a brawl.
     
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  13. herbicide

    herbicide Well-Known Member

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    I know I won't make many friends around here by saying this, but I think they might be good enough to beat us even if we're not napping. Via a poor shooting night from ISU combined with a good one from Iowa.

    We've seen both play out in this series, and more disconcertingly during this season.
     
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  14. Sigmapolis

    Sigmapolis Well-Known Member
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    Oh, I agree, we need to play one of our better games this season.

    We all know Iowa is going to be coming at us knives out for their Super Bowl. The best version of Iowa, even undercut by Hilton, is a challenging opponent.

    If we do not, or we have another Bolton/Nixon brickfest, we will lose.
     
  15. FinalFourCy

    FinalFourCy Well-Known Member

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    It’ll be disappointing if we can’t speed up the game. Our high offensive metrics like AdjO efficiency and effective FG% are facilitated by our tempo imo. Get possession ending plays and easy buckets. Iowa isn’t slow, but they are significantly better equipped for a half court game.

    If our team defense and rotations could tighten up, leading to more stops and defensive rebounds to start the break, we could have a 2004-2005 type tournament team.
     
  16. CoachHines3

    CoachHines3 Active Member

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    when are the first NET rankings released?
     
  17. Icky_Mettle

    Icky_Mettle Active Member

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  18. TedKumsher

    TedKumsher Well-Known Member

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    I would largely equate napping with a poor shooting night.
     
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  19. KennyPratt42

    KennyPratt42 Active Member

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    Current teamrankings for our mid and low major opponents this year. The main takeaway is that there are only 6 of them this year and only 2 that fall in the really bad category for strength of schedule, unfortunately Miss Valley St is clearly the worst team in college basketball.

    Miss Valley St. 353
    Florida A&M 339
    Southern Miss 265
    UMKC 213
    IPFW 209
    N Illinois 133
     
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  20. SolarGarlic

    SolarGarlic Well-Known Member

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    It's pretty much guaranteed that one or more of Conditt/Jacobson/Haliburton is going to get a technical against Iowa.
     
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