2017 Stock Prediction

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isu22andy

Active Member
Sep 17, 2012
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GILD (Gilead Sciences): $72 / sh

+ They have $9 / share just in cash.
+ Stock is selling a 6x PE, while the other drug companies sell for 12x
+ They essentially have the cure for Hepatitis C
stock will probably go down before going up, but could easily go to $95/sh; it used to sell at $120

About ready to buy in .
 
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DurangoCy

Well-Known Member
Jul 5, 2010
6,376
4,249
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Durango, CO
After Brexit, I bought in to Barclay's (BCS). Now that I have an over 50% return on the stock, I am wondering if it is time to talk profits and sell. Again, I may wait and see what happens but have a quick trigger to sell.


I did the same thing with HSBC, which had also announced that they were investing heavily in Asia, and I like Asia.
upload_2017-1-17_11-36-27.png

...and not to be one of those guys. I'll have plenty of opportunity to pear down my taxes on my gains, because I've always been into Chinese Solar Stocks. Would probably be retire by now without them.
upload_2017-1-17_11-38-28.png
 

DurangoCy

Well-Known Member
Jul 5, 2010
6,376
4,249
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Durango, CO
I guess after looking over my watch lists and stocks I'm going to swing for the fence this year with a stock that really paid off during the last tech bubble. That and with Trump coming in and talking tough with China I like American Superconductor, AMSC trading at 7.36.

Also considered DDD, and more of a value play in GME that I really like. Also like strong dollar UUP this year but that just won't move enough for this contest.

DDD is my second loser. I don't have much faith.
upload_2017-1-17_11-42-11.png
 

Go2Guy

Well-Known Member
Mar 18, 2006
8,859
1,043
113
Houston, TX
About ready to buy in .
Earnings are Feb 7. You may want to wait as it appears there will be no acquisition announcement and the earnings have been declining (mainly because they have essentially cured HepC). Also, the political winds are against drug companies and their prices.
That said, the valuation is def a bargain and it will have to revert to the mean some time.
I will probably be selling some puts, or buy the Jan 2018 leap options.
 

ArgentCy

Well-Known Member
Jan 13, 2010
20,387
11,176
113
DDD is my second loser. I don't have much faith.
View attachment 46101

All in the purchase price.DDD is looking to be an early favorite, Kinda wish I had picked it instead. It closed 2016 at 13.29 and is already up to 17 (28% in 2 weeks is pretty impressive). I've been there with big loses before but don't let that cloud judgement on its current situation.
 

ArgentCy

Well-Known Member
Jan 13, 2010
20,387
11,176
113
Earnings are Feb 7. You may want to wait as it appears there will be no acquisition announcement and the earnings have been declining (mainly because they have essentially cured HepC). Also, the political winds are against drug companies and their prices.
That said, the valuation is def a bargain and it will have to revert to the mean some time.
I will probably be selling some puts, or buy the Jan 2018 leap options.

Our investment club has considered it and it looks cheap compared to previous values. But I'm just not sure it has enough products to maintain the growth rates people were used to. Long-term chart looks pretty scary as well. I might look at other drug companies.
 

DurangoCy

Well-Known Member
Jul 5, 2010
6,376
4,249
113
Durango, CO
I've been buying UCO. It is a 2X EFT based on crude oil. In other words Crude Oil moves 5% - UCO moves 10%.


What's you time frame on it? Everything I've ever read mentions that the decay on those due to the way the options work makes it really difficult to stay above water.
 

Doc

This is it Morty
Aug 6, 2006
37,437
21,962
113
Denver
This is great. We should totally keep this thread going all year for market conversation. I'm fascinated by it.

My big long term play is still Under Armor. Long term. All these endorsements they have overpaid for are eventually going to pay off big time. They have overreached now but in 10 years, I see a stock that's trading at 29 or whatever now up in the 50s or 60s consistently.

I know you said long term, but this is not looking so good in the short term right now. ;)
 

ArgentCy

Well-Known Member
Jan 13, 2010
20,387
11,176
113
What happened to your UA stock today? Down 20% ouch. Was actually looking at it a little this morning. Not sure how Trump will play out in the energy markets.

Also seriously looking at buying DDD soon, chart looks great. Grains, esp wheat, are starting to look interesting.
 

ArgentCy

Well-Known Member
Jan 13, 2010
20,387
11,176
113
I bought some APA and LUV today. Want to get into the energy game a little bit with Trump's plans. LUV has a new target of like 82 and it's selling at 59.

Someday we need to sit down and talk about stocks over a couple large beers. Not sure what the strategy is with an oil stock and airline stock as it seems they trade on opposite sides of the oil market. Airlines often go down some if oil prices go up. I might be tempted to go with an oil driller as opposed to a stock like Apache but many are still bullish oil. Also be careful of random price targets as though can change with the wind and I've never put much stock in them. If you find a good and consistent source like maybe Valueline or Barron's or something it might be a little more informative.

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...-happen/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&yptr=yahoo

After looking a little more at UAA I think it's a stock to put on the back burner for 6 months to a year and I'll look back at it. It broke below long-term moving averages and the metrics still look expensive. I've bought plenty of these falling knife stocks in the past and hardly ever works. It will take time to find a solid bottom / base and start to recover.

UAA-Jan2017.jpg
 

bos

Legend
Staff member
Apr 10, 2006
29,671
5,256
113
I bought some APA and LUV today. Want to get into the energy game a little bit with Trump's plans. LUV has a new target of like 82 and it's selling at 59.


LUV is getting some strong buy love. I think if it hits 50 I may play in.
 

ArgentCy

Well-Known Member
Jan 13, 2010
20,387
11,176
113
I'm not sure that anyone cares but since I made this trade today it is timely. Plus, I think this strategy is grossly underused by investors and relatively conservative.

Selling Covered Call Options - http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/08/covered-call.asp

This is on 200 shares of SLW (last year's pick) that I have owned since ~2008 (so long term). I bought these low and would have to pay a large capital gain if I sold them and I still like it a lot long-term. However, I sold 1/3 of the shares last year at ~$29 and I'm not very positive on them at the moment (up 4% today to $22.13). So to gain a little income and potentially protect another fall, I sold two call options. I sold the March 17, 2017 $22 Calls for $1.30. This means I received $260 less commissions that I keep regardless. Note this is around 5.8% yield with implied volatility over 40%. If the stock does go down then the price of the option goes down until it would expire in about 7 weeks. If it goes over that price than the person could exercise the option which means they would buy my stock at $22 per share.
 

SoapyCy

Well-Known Member
Oct 10, 2012
20,023
9,760
113
grundy center
I bought some APA and LUV today. Want to get into the energy game a little bit with Trump's plans. LUV has a new target of like 82 and it's selling at 59.

when you buy stocks of that price what is the approx number of shares you buy at once? i like some higher-priced stocks but feel like anything under 100 shares (what I can afford) is not really "fun".