Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[20eyes]

Maybe. It depends on how many teams break away. If it is the entire SEC and B1G, and they have like 48 schools, and then a rump of 20 schools are left in "division 2" then yes that is very bad.

But if it is just the blue blood brands that break away, maybe 24-32 schools, then the "division 2" would have 40ish schools, and the whole thing would look/feel more like "nfl-lite" vs "college football". And that would be OK.

Don't hang yourself in the closet just yet.

Yes, but won't this be dictated by the media companies?

I think your first scenario is likely. The B1G has (obviously) shown an appetite to expand to wherever and the SEC won't permit itself to become a lesser league than the B1G. And the SEC is fiercely loyal, they chant S-E_C like a bunch of redneck goons...I presume the ACC raid is coming and will be catastrophic.

I have to respectfully disagree that your second scenario is okay. One man's opinion but what's kept me an ISU fan has been the chance (however unlikely) that ISU could compete at the highest level for the biggest Bowls. I think any sort of D2 relegation would cause a massive hit to fan interest. If we never even had the possibility of beating Oregon (or whoever else) in the Fiesta (or other top tier Bowl) I think fans will leave in droves.

I will say this...I never, ever, expected USC and UCLA to leave the Pac. That sets a precedent for Michigan & tOSU to leave the B1G for a super-league or Alabama & Georgia to leave the SEC for that same league, which would also make my head spin.

 

[Jkclone15]

Yes, but won't this be dictated by the media companies?

I think your first scenario is likely. The B1G has (obviously) shown an appetite to expand to wherever and the SEC won't permit itself to become a lesser league than the B1G. And the SEC is fiercely loyal, they chant S-E_C like a bunch of redneck goons...I presume the ACC raid is coming and will be catastrophic.

I have to respectfully disagree that your second scenario is okay. One man's opinion but what's kept me an ISU fan has been the chance (however unlikely) that ISU could compete at the highest level for the biggest Bowls. I think any sort of D2 relegation would cause a massive hit to fan interest. If we never even had the possibility of beating Oregon (or whoever else) in the Fiesta (or other top tier Bowl) I think fans will leave in droves.

I will say this...I never, ever, expected USC and UCLA to leave the Pac. That sets a precedent for Michigan & tOSU to leave the B1G for a super-league or Alabama & Georgia to leave the SEC for that same league, which would also make my head spin.

Would you be interested in a B1G post-super league takeover that includes ISU, the Kansas schools, and leftover B1G programs? Because I think I would.

 

[Boxerdaddy]

As much as everyone on here likes to dog on this guy, it is interesting to look back at this. Note the date.

Can we have an auto 1 hr ban for anyone that posts MHver3 content?

 

[knowlesjam]

Why the negative reaction: Because when you apply critical thinking and forward looking skills, combined with a search for disconfirming evidence to the warm cozy feeling you get by this news, you will come to the realization that these moves are not for the benefit of the big 12 and ISU, they will not be a true indication of the markets interest and assigned value to our league, but are to accomplish other goals by the media partners. Thus, this is not in fact “good news” as most people have said.

Hey, all of this is clearly my opinion, feel free to disagree, I enjoy discussion on the topic, that’s what message boards are for I think.

Definitely agree with you. However, the whole market interest thing does apply both to the PAC and Big 12. How can a conference really know what their true value is without a open competition between market providers? Obviously, the perfect case is when you move into your open season and take closed bids from each source. The problem is, can the Big 12 wait until that date? I'm not so sure they can, as there are too many things in flux right now. What if ESPN decides to artificially plus up the PAC in an attempt to move to ball in their favor of poaching Big 12 teams? By doing this now, the Big 12 at least is involving two networks that are at polar opposites of each other. FOX wants to increase its market presence...they already have the Big 12...why not push the envelope a bit and make the Big 12 a bigger force and then poach the top teams from the PAC? Fox wins...ESPN loses. Maybe ESPN sees a bigger role with the Big 12 and they get better games for some increase in cash while saving more cash by not having the PAC?

Bottom line is that the Big 12 really can't afford to wait 18 months for the open season of bidding. Strike now, get a nice 5 year extension, suck up 4-6 PAC teams, and then hit the open bidding season again in 2027, well before the BIG and SEC get their next opportunity.

 

[20eyes]

Would you be interested in a B1G post-super league takeover that includes ISU, the Kansas schools, and leftover B1G programs? Because I think I would.

Excellent question...

 

[Boxerdaddy]

So hear me out...everyone thinks this is the deathstroke for the P12, but the P12 is already dead. The networks need a way to blow up the ACC, and this may be their play. Get the B12 involved, have us send out some invites in order to have enough teams wanting out that they can dissolve the ACC. Some go B1G, some go SEC, others to B12. In exchange we get a bump in pay, the leftovers now have to get a new contract for their rights which would be even lower than what ESPN had before.

Fox gets the ACC teams it wants for the B1G
ESPN gets the ACC teams it wants for the SEC
B12 gets the ACC teams it wants and a reworked deal, keeping them "competitive"

P12 dies on the vine, some teams spreading to the B1G and B12. Remaining teams get much lower deal for their rights, saving the networks more $.

 

[20eyes]

Can we have an auto 1 hr ban for anyone that posts MHver3 content?

Or some way to block any posts or attachments that say MHver3...?

 

[cyfan92]

Wazzu and Oregon State will fit perfectly in the MW conference and make that a more fun conference to watch. I'll watch Big XII first and then MW and that's it - no Big and no SEC.

Wazzu and Oregon St are perfect for the MW. Both of their football stadiums are in the 30K range for capacity.

I'm more interested in gambling on a Boise St and Washington St game than I am watching Oregon St play Cal or Stanford. Their fans will also love being powers in the conference versus being the ugly step-children who are always forgotten.

 

[Big_Sill]

Definitely agree with you. However, the whole market interest thing does apply both to the PAC and Big 12. How can a conference really know what their true value is without a open competition between market providers? Obviously, the perfect case is when you move into your open season and take closed bids from each source. The problem is, can the Big 12 wait until that date? I'm not so sure they can, as there are too many things in flux right now. What if ESPN decides to artificially plus up the PAC in an attempt to move to ball in their favor of poaching Big 12 teams? By doing this now, the Big 12 at least is involving two networks that are at polar opposites of each other. FOX wants to increase its market presence...they already have the Big 12...why not push the envelope a bit and make the Big 12 a bigger force and then poach the top teams from the PAC? Fox wins...ESPN loses. Maybe ESPN sees a bigger role with the Big 12 and they get better games for some increase in cash while saving more cash by not having the PAC?

Bottom line is that the Big 12 really can't afford to wait 18 months for the open season of bidding. Strike now, get a nice 5 year extension, suck up 4-6 PAC teams, and then hit the open bidding season again in 2027, well before the BIG and SEC get their next opportunity.

I agree with most everything you say. Opening the contract is our best play right now and I am glad we are doing it. It doesn't however seem to come from a position of strength, as you say "we can't afford to wait".

Slight clarification: we aren't getting a market rate for the future league, we are getting the " ESPN wants OuT in the SEC now" rate. So not apples to apples compared to Pac 12, and not something we will have in our pocket the next time around.

 

[CascadeClone]

Yes, but won't this be dictated by the media companies?

I think your first scenario is likely. The B1G has (obviously) shown an appetite to expand to wherever and the SEC won't permit itself to become a lesser league than the B1G. And the SEC is fiercely loyal, they chant S-E_C like a bunch of redneck goons...I presume the ACC raid is coming and will be catastrophic.

I have to respectfully disagree that your second scenario is okay. One man's opinion but what's kept me an ISU fan has been the chance (however unlikely) that ISU could compete at the highest level for the biggest Bowls. I think any sort of D2 relegation would cause a massive hit to fan interest. If we never even had the possibility of beating Oregon (or whoever else) in the Fiesta (or other top tier Bowl) I think fans will leave in droves.

I will say this...I never, ever, expected USC and UCLA to leave the Pac. That sets a precedent for Michigan & tOSU to leave the B1G for a super-league or Alabama & Georgia to leave the SEC for that same league, which would also make my head spin.

It will (continue) to be totally driven by Fox/ESPN/etc. I think the 1st scenario more likely, because distilling down to a small number of teams makes for bigger viewership per game, which drives ad revenue exponentially. Less is actually more in this case.

WRT the 2nd scenario, as long as most of CFB (say 30-40 of the P5 plus all the G5s of course) is in it, and the superleague is relatively less teams, I have no problem with it. There will still be a championship to be had.

If your interest is in having ISU the chance to compete for championships at the highest level, I dont' know what to say about that. They've been light years from that for decades-- hopelessly, laughably outclassed. How are you still interested at all?

 

[Clonedogg]

I agree with most everything you say. Opening the contract is our best play right now and I am glad we are doing it. It doesn't however seem to come from a position of strength, as you say "we can't afford to wait".

Slight clarification: we aren't getting a market rate for the future league, we are getting the " ESPN wants OuT in the SEC now" rate. So not apples to apples compared to Pac 12, and not something we will have in our pocket the next time around.

It does buy the conference time. Maybe some teams in the conference win some playoff games. Maybe Yormark does have some cool ideas cooking?

 

[BryceC]

So hear me out...everyone thinks this is the deathstroke for the P12, but the P12 is already dead. The networks need a way to blow up the ACC, and this may be their play. Get the B12 involved, have us send out some invites in order to have enough teams wanting out that they can dissolve the ACC. Some go B1G, some go SEC, others to B12. In exchange we get a bump in pay, the leftovers now have to get a new contract for their rights which would be even lower than what ESPN had before.

Fox gets the ACC teams it wants for the B1G
ESPN gets the ACC teams it wants for the SEC
B12 gets the ACC teams it wants and a reworked deal, keeping them "competitive"

P12 dies on the vine, some teams spreading to the B1G and B12. Remaining teams get much lower deal for their rights, saving the networks more $.

It's possible, but the problem is the ACC is owned entirely by ESPN. So they don't want to blow it up, it keeps their quality BB content, and get all of those schools at a discount. it would have to be a move by Fox to blow them up, and it would take an absolute TON of money.

 

[Boxerdaddy]

It's possible, but the problem is the ACC is owned entirely by ESPN. So they don't want to blow it up, it keeps their quality BB content, and get all of those schools at a discount. it would have to be a move by Fox to blow them up, and it would take an absolute TON of money.

How much bigger is the discount though if they have a new weaker league? They'd be lucky to get half of what they currently do, probably much less.

 

[Statefan10]

I agree regarding Wazzu and OSU.

But objectively speaking, they are much closer to a mid major profile than we are. Jack Trice is the size of their stadiums COMBINED, I believe.

Wazzu - 32,952
Oregon State - 26,407
Total = 59,359

ISU - 61,500

 

[Al_4_State]

Wazzu - 32,952
Oregon State - 26,407
Total = 59,359

ISU - 61,500

Damn.

 

[Triggermv]

 

[Statefan10]

Damn.

Update - they’re making renovations to the stadium so that’s why it’s that low. Wikipedia says they were at 43,000 last year and with the new renovation will go down about 10,000. But right now they’re at 26,000 due to construction.

 

[Trice]

Update - they’re making renovations to the stadium so that’s why it’s that low. Wikipedia says they were at 43,000 last year and with the new renovation will go down about 10,000. But right now they’re at 26,000 due to construction.

Correct, this is artificially low right now. Wazzu capacity is just under 33K, and apparently Oregon State will end up between 34-39K when construction ends. So bigger combined than Jack Trice by 5 or 10K.

Still, those are shockingly small numbers.

 

[alarson]

Correct, this is artificially low right now. Wazzu capacity is just under 33K, and apparently Oregon State will end up between 34-39K when construction ends. So bigger combined than Jack Trice by 5 or 10K.

Still, those are shockingly small numbers.

Even Oregon's official capacity is only 54k, which is kind of small for such a nationally large brand.

 

[Trice]

Why the negative reaction: Because when you apply critical thinking and forward looking skills, combined with a search for disconfirming evidence to the warm cozy feeling you get by this news, you will come to the realization that these moves are not for the benefit of the big 12 and ISU, they will not be a true indication of the markets interest and assigned value to our league, but are to accomplish other goals by the media partners. Thus, this is not in fact “good news” as most people have said.

Hey, all of this is clearly my opinion, feel free to disagree, I enjoy discussion on the topic, that’s what message boards are for I think.

Your line of thinking may prove correct. But really, what is the alternative? You cash in while you can, live to fight another day, and hope things work our in our favor in coming years.

We don't know what type of structure will govern CFB in 10 years or what decision-makers will think. Maybe there will be a singular commissioner looking out for the entire sport by then. Nick Saban could keel over tomorrow and throw the entire hierarchy of the sport into disarray. Maybe Campbell sticks around and we get too good for too long to ignore in some future realignment scenario.

But I agree with what I think is your general principle here, that what we've come to expect in the past may not hold in the future. Though I think we've all been disabused of that notion by now.