Why 98.9% and not 100% to make the ‘ship game now?

[Thomasrickj]

What would it honestly take for ISU to not make the championship? With a 98.9% chance, I feel like it’s going to take the wildest of scenarios for us to miss out. I’m curious what it will actually take for that to happen.

 

[jsb]

One thing is Kansas beating Texas.

 

[cycloneG]

OSU and WVU winning out would push ISU out.

 

[alarson]

I think if KSU wins tomorrow though that clinches it.

 

[ISUTex]

OSU and WVU winning out would push ISU out.

How?

We have tie breakers over OU and UT

 

[jsb]

OSU and WVU winning out would push ISU out.

That doesn't seem that unlikely.

 

[alarson]

How?

We have tie breakers over OU and UT

You get into some weird 3-way tie situations not just at #1 but at the #4 position

 

[mred]

If Texas loses to KSU and Kansas (or, more likely, they lose one and the other is cancelled), ISU loses to WVU, OU and OSU win out, and Baylor beats KSU tomorrow, we are #3.

 

[clonedude]

OSU and WVU winning out would push ISU out.

That’s it? Great, now I’m nervous again.

 

[cycloneG]

How?

We have tie breakers over OU and UT

Three way tie for first and we'd have loses to both of them.

 

[CycloneErik]

That doesn't seem that unlikely.

WVU has to play us. I'd say we can win that one.

 

[BCClone]

OSU and WVU winning out would push ISU out.

Don’t think so.

 

[KCClone1]

OSU and WVU winning out would push ISU out.

That’s wrong

 

[CycloneErik]

Three way tie for first and we'd have loses to both of them.

WVU has 3 conference losses. They can't tie us.

 

[alarson]

If Texas loses to KSU and Kansas (or, more likely, they lose one and the other is cancelled), ISU losses to WVU, OU and OSU win out, and Baylor beats KSU tomorrow, we are #3.

Since i've been using your generator, any idea what the scoring differential tiebreakers are looking like in the scenario i posted above?

 

[BCClone]

Three way tie for first and we'd have loses to both of them.

No we would have 2 losses and OU and WVhave 3

 

[mred]

I think if KSU wins tomorrow though that clinches it.

In this situation, OSU is actually the odd team out.

 

[alarson]

WVU has 3 conference losses. They can't tie us.

The issue there starts to become a 3 way ISU\OSU\OU tie and how that tie is broken, comparing to the #4 teams.

 

[madguy30]

OSU and WVU winning out would push ISU out.

While that's not far off, OU will have their backs against the wall 12/12 and I'd take them any day in that scenario.

 

[cycloneG]

WVU has 3 conference losses. They can't tie us.

Somehow I thought they only had 2.