Of course every coach is a risk, but some are bigger risks than others. Even if they're "less risky," they might not work out (Chizik), but it's all a game of odds and you play that game the best you can.
I agree that people are overstating our position, and I'm not saying we're going to have Coach K and Izzo knocking on our doors. I do think we'll be in a good enough position to attract some of the young, up and coming talent that have proven themselves. That might even end up being Otz, I don't know, but I don't think he's the very first place we look for the head coaching job at this point.
I assume that if Fred leaves, he's not going to blindside JP by leaving. I bet JP will be in the loop and will have options available and I bet that Fred will be a big part of helping JP come up with the list. Like someone said, if its 5-7 years down the line, Charlie Henry could be on the list. If its in 1-2 years, I would guess TJ would be at the top of the list.
Lets assume that TJ would be Fred's choice as a replacement. Who from this list of candidates would you want JP to hire.
TJ (as Fred's hand picked successory)
Shaka Smart (from VCU)
Gregg Marshal (from Wichita State)
Quin Snyder (NBA, formerlly Mizzou)
Lon Krugar (Oklahoma)
Tony Bennett (Virginia)
Jim Boylen (Spurs assistant, former Izzo assistant)
Buzz Williams (formerly Marquette, now Virginia Tech)
Danny Manning (Tulsa)
Tommy Amakar (Harvard)
Even assuming all of those guys would go to Iowa State, if I found out Fred told JP that TJ would be the ideal head coach to replace him, and JP hired someone else, I'd be furious. If he didn't have Fred's endorsement, I wouldn't want JP to hire him.