The basic conclusion we come to is this:
With time running out (final possession), and a 3-point lead, the defensive team is roughly 4 times more likely to "blow the lead" and have to play overtime if they choose to play defense, rather than foul in the waning seconds of the game.
To foul or not to foul if up by 3? Why or why not?
There are a lot of assumptions (which one has to take, so not bashing the guy) in the purely theoretical approach taken in the above link. Play-by-play data from actual games show it's not quite so clear cut and, with either method, the team up 3 wins over 90% of the time: the kenpom.com blog
W L OT Win% Cases
Foul 122 5 11 92.0 138
Defend 598 2 76 93.5 676
If I was coaching, I'd try to have my team foul, but only if we had practiced good (non-shooting and non-flagrant) fouls. I'm shocked more teams don't just run through screens, or hold jerseys on off-ball cuts, in this scenario, because there is no chance it would be a shooting foul.
There are a lot of assumptions (which one has to take, so not bashing the guy) in the purely theoretical approach taken in the above link. Play-by-play data from actual games show it's not quite so clear cut and, with either method, the team up 3 wins over 90% of the time: the kenpom.com blog
PHP:W L OT Win% Cases Foul 122 5 11 92.0 138 Defend 598 2 76 93.5 676
Seems like the football team sucks up all the good karma every yearonly when the odds are long in the wrong direction can we make it happen
If you have fouls to give it's a no brainer.would be interesting to see how many of those 'foul' decisions actually resulted in shots for the opposing team or if they were still under the bonus threshold...could have material impact to the decision.
I'm SURE that most of them would create at least a 1-and-1 situation, but still, my curiosity is piqued.
Yeah, the one strategy I definitely feel should always be employed is to use up any fouls to give in the backcourt to whittle away as much clock as possible away from the hoop. I *think* KenPom only considered in the "foul" cases fouls that led to foul shots, but not 100% sure.would be interesting to see how many of those 'foul' decisions actually resulted in shots for the opposing team or if they were still under the bonus threshold...could have material impact to the decision.
I'm SURE that most of them would create at least a 1-and-1 situation, but still, my curiosity is piqued.