To foul or not to foul if up by 3?

Discussion in 'Mens Basketball' started by wamfam, Jan 28, 2014.

  1. wamfam

    wamfam Member

    Dec 13, 2013
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    To foul or not to foul if up by 3? Why or why not?
     
  2. im4cyclones

    im4cyclones Well-Known Member

    Jun 14, 2010
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    Here is one thought...

    Late game defensive strategy with a 3-point lead -- NBA research for 82games.com

     
  3. mj4cy

    mj4cy Asst. Regional Manager
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    I'd kill to be in that position tomorrow night.
     
  4. awd4cy

    awd4cy Well-Known Member

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  5. kucyclone

    kucyclone Well-Known Member

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    If I was coaching, I'd try to have my team foul, but only if we had practiced good (non-shooting and non-flagrant) fouls. I'm shocked more teams don't just run through screens, or hold jerseys on off-ball cuts, in this scenario, because there is no chance it would be a shooting foul.
     
  6. tejasclone

    tejasclone Well-Known Member

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    #6 tejasclone, Jan 28, 2014
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2014
    When the Cyclones are involved, either decision would invariably be the wrong one.

    Play defense, and that 13% 3PT shooter on the other team banks it in at the horn and the Clones go down in OT.

    Foul, and the 11% FT shooter on the other team makes the first to cut the deficit to 2, misses the second but his teammate gets the rebound, passes out, and another 13% 3PT shooter nets a 3 at the horn to win by 1.

    It will happen every time. Because Cyclones.
     
  7. cloneu

    cloneu Well-Known Member

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    That depends, are you Iowa State or any other team at any level of basketball.
     
  8. TurbulentEddie

    Nov 16, 2012
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    There are a lot of assumptions (which one has to take, so not bashing the guy) in the purely theoretical approach taken in the above link. Play-by-play data from actual games show it's not quite so clear cut and, with either method, the team up 3 wins over 90% of the time: the kenpom.com blog

    PHP:
              W   L   OT   Win%   Cases
    Foul    122   5   11   92.0    138
    Defend  598   2   76   93.5    676
     
  9. WastedTalent

    WastedTalent Well-Known Member

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    Good idea, but have to be weary of the intentional foul or flagrant foul. These are very rarely called at the end of the game, but as stated before...Iowa State.
     
  10. NorthCyd

    NorthCyd Well-Known Member

    Aug 22, 2011
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    As if the dozens of other threads where people have argued in circles on this subject weren't enough...troll on.
     
  11. abe2010

    abe2010 Well-Known Member

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    only when the odds are long in the wrong direction can we make it happen
     
  12. 3TrueFans

    3TrueFans Well-Known Member

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    Overall I don't think it matters, I prefer the idea of fouling with less than 5 seconds or so though.
     
  13. JWIL4CY

    JWIL4CY Active Member

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    Whatever Fred chooses is the correct answer.
     
  14. 3TrueFans

    3TrueFans Well-Known Member

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    Unless we lose.
     
  15. TurbulentEddie

    Nov 16, 2012
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    Seems like the football team sucks up all the good karma every year :jimlad: :jimlad: :jimlad:
     
  16. CycloneErik

    CycloneErik Well-Known Member

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    Never give away points. Don't foul.
     
  17. CYUL8R

    CYUL8R Well-Known Member

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    would be interesting to see how many of those 'foul' decisions actually resulted in shots for the opposing team or if they were still under the bonus threshold...could have material impact to the decision.

    I'm SURE that most of them would create at least a 1-and-1 situation, but still, my curiosity is piqued.
     
  18. Doc

    Doc Well-Known Member

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    I don't care as long as they don't leave somebody wide open again like Pappapetrou or McCabe.
     
  19. 3TrueFans

    3TrueFans Well-Known Member

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    If you have fouls to give it's a no brainer.
     
  20. TurbulentEddie

    Nov 16, 2012
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    Yeah, the one strategy I definitely feel should always be employed is to use up any fouls to give in the backcourt to whittle away as much clock as possible away from the hoop. I *think* KenPom only considered in the "foul" cases fouls that led to foul shots, but not 100% sure.
     

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