Very Early 2/21 Weather Thread

bawbie

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Mar 17, 2006
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I'll bet you guys anything the majority of the state receives less than 6 inches out of this.

The way I'm reading it, I'd guess 4-6" east of I-35. But the western part of the state and eastern NE and SD are still looking to get walloped. That's my amateur take.
 

00clone

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Apr 12, 2011
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Yes, how horrible it is to know in advance that a potential major storm is coming. Because it's not like people have travel plans, or jobs, or school, or medications/dr. visits that might be affected by something like that.

I think it's far better to know well in advance that something like this might be coming, and be pleasantly surprised if/when it turns out to be less severe than anticipated, than to have the opposite happen.

I'll never understand what it is about Americans, or perhaps human nature in general, that makes us so averse to planning ahead and only taking action when the ***** hits the fan. I always think back to Y2K and how people complained that since it didn't turn out to be severe, that it wasn't worth all the hype - as if years of hype didn't lead directly to the preparation and planning that kept it from being severe.

^^^^^posted from his doomsday bunker.

:pwink:
 

IlliniCy

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May 21, 2008
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Exactly, my two sons also have tickets to the Miranda Lambert & Dirks Bently concert in Hilton on Thursday night. Do you think they might have to end up cancelling this concert?

Chances are very slim they would cancel. If the trucks and busses can get here, the show goes on. Miranda has no shows between now and then, so her trucks could very well be on their way already.
 

cycloneworld

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I'm supposed to go to a city council meeting and then drive to Kansas City for work...sounds like I likely won't be making it to KC.
 

FDWxMan

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Jan 31, 2009
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No curiosity needed there. You can bet on anything. Why not make a prop bet on a snowstorm? If you can make money, go for it.

Betting is fine. In fact, I suggested an over/under range earlier in the thread.

Just wondering why he is going the 6 or less route.
 

cyfanatic

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Oct 18, 2006
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Betting is fine. In fact, I suggested an over/under range earlier in the thread.

Just wondering why he is going the 6 or less route.

I was wondering if he is willing to make that bet because he has no faith in science and computers? As we all know, weather forecasters...professional ones that is...don't just make up forecasts! Reading data and computers...why do people hate on them for this?
 

Al_4_State

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Just curious. Why are you betting less than six?

It just seems that every storm predicted for my area (Cresco/Decorah region) has been about 4-6 inches, even though about 5 days out, we were getting predictions of double that.

If you look up the page, there's a post of a map indicating 10-12 inches for this area, and 8-10 for another large chunk of the state.

I'm guessing based on a longtime trend for media to over-hype storms in advance, and the results around here thus far this year, that this storm will fail to match the predicted intensity, as most storms tend to do.
 

VTXCyRyD

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Betting is fine. In fact, I suggested an over/under range earlier in the thread.

Just wondering why he is going the 6 or less route.

DON'T DO IT! If you make that bet there is no way you will be allowed into the Meteorology Hall of Fame. Even if you are betting in your own forecast.
 

FDWxMan

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It just seems that every storm predicted for my area (Cresco/Decorah region) has been about 4-6 inches, even though about 5 days out, we were getting predictions of double that.

If you look up the page, there's a post of a map indicating 10-12 inches for this area, and 8-10 for another large chunk of the state.

I'm guessing based on a longtime trend for media to over-hype storms in advance, and the results around here thus far this year, that this storm will fail to match the predicted intensity, as most storms tend to do.

Ok. Well that's all fine and good. And maybe that's the way it is in your area with the "media" hyping things.

But within the scope of this thread, the "media" has been hyping it by saying to essentially pump the brakes until at least Tuesday.

Raw model output, 7 days in advance =/ meteorologists.

Raw model output, 1 or 2 days in advance =/ meteorologists.

This is where the "overhyping" starts to become somewhat of a myth. It does happen, but often times it is more people who aren't paying attention, and/or mis-attributing the "forecast" to the tv guy.

So I'm not ready to throw it into Blizzard for the Ages, but still looks like a significant winter storm for Iowa. Will need shovels and snowblowers, especially west central Iowa.

And yes, this forecast will change, but that is how things look to me at this point.

So right now, the GFS model is indicating snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour over a 7 or 8 hour window, which, well, doesn't happen often, here, for that long.

For entertainment purposes only, the under still looks like the smart play...for now.

I think a good place to start the bidding is 5-8". Place over/unders on that.
Eastern Nebraska would get hammered. I'd probably be more comfortable getting to double digits for amounts around Omaha....maybe Atlantic/Denison/Carroll.
 
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Senolcyc

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Apr 20, 2010
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+1. This is exactly what happens almost every time. Snow forecasts are like men talking about their wally - usually several inches more than what is really there.



It just seems that every storm predicted for my area (Cresco/Decorah region) has been about 4-6 inches, even though about 5 days out, we were getting predictions of double that.

If you look up the page, there's a post of a map indicating 10-12 inches for this area, and 8-10 for another large chunk of the state.

I'm guessing based on a longtime trend for media to over-hype storms in advance, and the results around here thus far this year, that this storm will fail to match the predicted intensity, as most storms tend to do.
 

CykoAGR

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Dec 16, 2008
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Hey we must think alike. Im supposed to leave on Friday following this massive **** storm and Im just grinning while the snow totals continue to fall.

I just hope by Friday pm that the worst is over and the cleanup is well on its way.
 

ISpyCy

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Sep 17, 2011
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We should also take suggestions as to what corny, cheesy name The Weather Channel selects for the name of the storm.

I don't get why they do it. It's plastered on TV title cards, but none of the meteorologists ever use it.