This Will Unravel Fast
IMO the fact the OU president told the media his schools was listening to offers means the Big 12 is done. OU is just trying to make sure they can leverage the best deal from the SEC & Pac 12 and determine who else they are looking to add.
I think behind the scenes this is being driven by the networks. They can't continue to pay 2x to 3x prior rights contracts. This way they only have divide their money up 4 ways instead of 6.
The way I see it there are 68 BCS teams in the Big 12, Big 10, SEC, ACC, Big East, Pac 12 and ND/BYU. With 4 mega conferences there will 4 teams left out in the cold. I would say the 6 teams on the outside looking in are: ISU, Baylor, KSU, Rutgers, South FL and Cincinnati.
Based on whats out there & speculation on my part here's what I think happens:
ACC - adds Pitt, UConn & Syacuse:
They still need 1 team
Big 10 - adds KU & Mizzou:
They still need 2 teams
Pac 12 - adds Texas, Texas Tech, OU & OSU:
They're done
SEC - adds A&M, Louisville & W. Va:
Still need 1 team
IMO the keys are:
- What does ND do? If the Big East blows up do they stay independent in FB & join a hoops league comprised of Catholic colleges without FB like Marquette, Depaul, Providence, Georgetown, SLU, etc? If they do decide to join a conference I think ND has choices. The Big 10 is the obvious. But I think they may be a better fit for the ACC.
- Does the Pac 12 really want Texas Tech? I think they MUCH would rather have BYU. But if Texas/TT is a package deal, then the Pac 12 does what it takes to get the Longhorns.
- I think the talk about Mizzou going to the SEC may be real. I don't see many other good choices for the SEC to get to 16 teams. It could also be Mizzou's way to let the Big 10 know they have options. I believe Mizzou would much rather be in the Big 10 than the SEC.
When its all said & done, if college FB ends up with four 16 team conferences- I think the Clones end up in the Big 10. I think ISU deserves to be in the Big 10 on its own merit. Our athletic programs are on par with existing Big 10 programs like Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Northwestern and the two additions (Mizzou & KU). Add to that ISU is a strong academic institution and over time has had very few run ins with the NCAA.
The other key will be existing Big 10 schools. Like it or not- the University of Iowa, Board of Regents and political powers to be in Iowa could have a strong lobbying influence to push ISU's case. I also think President Geoffrey's ties to PSU, President Jiske at Purdue and Jamie Pollard's connections at Wisconsin could help a lot. I would hope all these would factor much more than the state of Kansas saying KU/KSU are a package deal.
I still not convinced everyone will go to 16 teams. IMO the first couple conference probably can get to 16 teams- the last two might stop at 14 teams.