So you think that AA does not shoulder most of the blame (60-70% overall imo) for the low offensive output the past two years? I find that incredible. The impact of not having an accurate QB in the spread is propagated as much as bad Oline play (which we have not had sans OU and Iowa).
Good lines/average lines, WR drops/no WR drops, tough opponents/easy opponents...two things have been fairly consistent: 1.) Poor offensive output. Why? 2.)Mostly because of poor QB play.
Timing, accuracy, and quick reads are the most important aspect of the spread QB. AA does not excel in any of those areas.
The number of WRs is out of proportion to what the need is and is out of the ordinary. We have recruited more WRs than OL and DL. Their are 5 OL/DL on every play and you need 2 years to develop OL. So it is very odd to take more WRs than OL/DL. Very odd.
Taz?
3-5 to WR play virtually every snap, not too mention special teams. 10 WR in two-three years tells you nothing! Only 1 QB is on the field at a time. Yet we have recruited 4! 4 scholarships for 1 position vs 10 scholarships for 3-5 position. Nothing odd about it, QB play must be the highest priority to correct and have the biggest impact...i.e, it can cause the most (60-70%) problems.
Like I have said time and time again, who is our big play WR? Who is that guy that can turn a 5 yard slant into a 20+ yard gain? And who has done that? Who is the WR that defense should worry about in our offense? Even in our TT offensive performance, each passing play went for as many yards as it was designed. We have heard Herman say it last year and this year that our plays only go for what they are designed. We do not see any plays being made that equal yardage beyond
We hardly run slants because you have to be accurate to run the slant. There is no chance to turn it 5 yards when you have to stop to catch a ball behind you. Drop offs are even worse. Guys like Johnson (Rabbit), who clearly can break loose, are bottled up by AA's throws. We have all seen less formidable athletes have bigger plays in other offenses at ISU. Heck, the we saw some of the same WR play better when AA was not in this offense. The spread is handicapped by AA.
If ISU needs NFL WR to make this offense go, we are in big trouble.
And I ask again, what high producing passing "spread offense" has not had a very good to above average receiver?
Ones with bad QB play is where to look. The fact that you need NFL talent at WR to overcome AA in this offense is exactly what we are saying. To trivialize my point, if we had 5 NFL 1st round WR, this offense may be average. The fact that we do not, and the subsequent subpar play, does not make the burden mostly on the WR. It is mostly on AA.
As far as drops? Johnson has always had the dropsies. Darks had them his first year, got better last year was fine until KSU then got the dropsies again. Williams was money last year but has had a lot of drops this year. I am talking balls that flat out hit him in the hands. I can think of one per game. Not balls that are behind him not balls in front of him balls that a D1 receiver should make. I am not talking about balls that could be blamed on AA. Lenz has had a couple but he also hit a wall midseason last year and doesn't get a lot of reps. Our coaches have told us more than once that guys are dropping balls. I am not making this up. It was a problem in fall camp and it is a problem on game day. It is a problem no matter who you have at QB. Herman said it was a problem and Wells down played it. I don't know how you could say it is on Arnaud since he was the QB last year and IMO- has improved his short passing accuracy starting with the bowl game. Last year he just had a guy he could count on in Hamilton as well as Williams.
The coaches also said AA was the most improved...he is not this in games. One thing they have also hinted at is that the need for better QB play. Again, it is VERY unlikely that an entire unit would regress in something like catching balls, unless it was due to what they had to catch. Maybe AA has improved so much in practice that his throws in the games are catching them by surprise?
I don't underestimate what a good QB will do in this offense. I know that AA is not the perfect fit. I also know that when you are throwing short passes, you need a WR to break a big play once in a while. I know when you are throwing short passes and not getting yardage after the catch, you need the WR to catch every pass that hits them in the hands or you give up a down. I know when you are throwing short passes, you need your downfield WRs to block on time and sustain blocks. I know you also need a QB to throw for 65%+. I know the top 10 passing teams complete anywhere from 56-74%. Most in the 60-64% range. Did you know if Arnaud completed 1 more pass per game, he would complete 62%. 2 passes and he would be at 66%. Eliimnate half the drops and he is at 62%+. Those drops have been the difference in extending drives or drives stopping. I shouldn't say everyone has regressed only one has and everyone else has just maintained.
Everything you list here can be partially explained by poor QB play and somewhat improved with good QB play. I realize he is close to 65% I also realize few teams run the type of routes we do- other wise the % would drop.
And yes, that is why people are asking if this is the right offense. When so many teams are running the same offense, why would talented receivers come to ISU. Why forego Missouri, TT, OSU, Utah, etc for ISU? Yes, you need an accurate QB but you also need some play makers at WR. I have yet to see that at ISU.
I have seen similar WR units at ISU play much better in offenses that do not place the burden of needing such consistent accuracy on the QB.