I just keeping looking for numbers and days.
Everything else is a foreign language with no English equivalent.
Official Winter Storm Thread for 12/21 - 12/26
- Thread starter Jer
- Start date
Everything else is a foreign language with no English equivalent.
The NWS has seem to broken the the Winter Storm watch into two areas as I just updated my last post to reflect the Des Moines metro and below is for areas of far Northern & North Central Iowa as this area is in a Winter Weather Advisory for this evening:
I think the first advisory is for tonight's snow. The next one includes Des Moines and is for wed/friday. The positive is that I think DM is at the southern edge of the watch and from reading the NWS 'discussion' there was some debate as to where to put the line.
Low pressure (ie, storm systems) systems circulate counter-clockwise. Therefore, it will pull warm air in from the south and east, and drag cold air in from the north and west. Where you are latitude wise doesn't have as big of an influence on your temperature, rather, where the center of the storm tracks compared to you. If you are to the south and east of the center, you will get rain with this storm. Areas to the north and west will be colder, although even areas just to the north of the center could still have enough warm air wrapped in to keep temperatures warm enough for rain. The strength of the storm system is such that some models are trying to pull warmer air in around the east and into the north around the center. This is why there might be mostly rain for a good part of the storm in central Iowa to the east and south, while places with a latitude farther south into Kansas (central and western) will be cold enough for mostly snow. Those areas will have more cold air wrapped in from the north and west.
This is the trickiest part of forecasting winter storms, besides the exact track of the center of the storm. Temperature varying just a degree or two could mean all the difference between all rain, freezing rain and sleet, all snow, or a mix of everything. It's just too difficult to forecast with today's technology to be very confident in anything specific until basically it starts happening. Generalized information is what most use to forecast the event before that. If you don't like it, go create the perfect weather model yourself!
This is the trickiest part of forecasting winter storms, besides the exact track of the center of the storm. Temperature varying just a degree or two could mean all the difference between all rain, freezing rain and sleet, all snow, or a mix of everything. It's just too difficult to forecast with today's technology to be very confident in anything specific until basically it starts happening. Generalized information is what most use to forecast the event before that. If you don't like it, go create the perfect weather model yourself!
I'm not a meteorologist, but I'll give you my take:
First off, there is the possibility of 2-5 inches of snow tonight, for the north half of Iowa. This is the Winter Weather Advisory. It's not connected with the big storm.
This is going to be a long, very hard to predict storm. In the south (south of I-80) it will be mostly a rain event. In the northwest (up by Sioux City) it will be all snow and lots of it.
This storm will probably follow many storms before, where it starts out as a mix, changes to all rain, rains for a good while, and then the temps drop as the storm moves past and we get some snow and wind on the back side.
The first bit of mix will probably be Wednesday during the day. Some are predicting dangerous amounts of Ice during this part, especially along I-80 east of Des Moines. Wednesday night and Thursday will probably be all rain south, all snow north with a mix in the middle. Then Thursday into Christmas day it will change over to snow for everyone as the system pulls out. Where the line is between snow->mix->rain is the key, and it's the part that nobody knows (and nobody has gotten right in past storms like this).
The current thinking is that if you draw a line from Atlantic through Des Moines to Waterloo, north and west of that line will be where the bad weather is during the first part of the storm (Wednesday into Thursday). This is the portion that has a Winter Storm Watch issued already.
Hopefully that's in layman's terms.
Low pressure (ie, storm systems) systems circulate counter-clockwise. Therefore, it will pull warm air in from the south and east, and drag cold air in from the north and west. Where you are latitude wise doesn't have as big of an influence on your temperature, rather, where the center of the storm tracks compared to you. If you are to the south and east of the center, you will get rain with this storm. Areas to the north and west will be colder, although even areas just to the north of the center could still have enough warm air wrapped in to keep temperatures warm enough for rain. The strength of the storm system is such that some models are trying to pull warmer air in around the east and into the north around the center. This is why there might be mostly rain for a good part of the storm in central Iowa to the east and south, while places with a latitude farther south into Kansas (central and western) will be cold enough for mostly snow. Those areas will have more cold air wrapped in from the north and west.
This is the trickiest part of forecasting winter storms, besides the exact track of the center of the storm. Temperature varying just a degree or two could mean all the difference between all rain, freezing rain and sleet, all snow, or a mix of everything. It's just too difficult to forecast with today's technology to be very confident in anything specific until basically it starts happening. Generalized information is what most use to forecast the event before that. If you don't like it, go create the perfect weather model yourself!
So, you sound like you know some things. What's your opinion on what the weather will be like Friday around noon in Des Moines?
:shocked::shocked::realmad:
Looks like I'll be heading to the store to stock up on beer, and having to deal with the rest of the frenzy of people picking the place dry. Luckily we have a Wine & Spirits, but knowing some clowns around here, some people will be in there paying for their groceries:arghh:
So it sounds like I-35 is the cut off line in NC Iowa between the rough stuff and the manageable stuff? My travels on Friday will be about 30 miles east of 35, so that would be nice. Also, I'll have family coming from about 45 miles west of 35 heading to the same point, so it should give them a break somewhat.
I do know some things about the weather, but I'm no meteorologist. Weather (severe types) is a hobby of mine. I just try to find as many sources as I can about what is going to happen and try to blend them all together.
From what I'm reading/hearing, is that Des Moines will likely have a rain (mostly)/freezing rain/sleet mix until sometime later on Thursday when it should switch to mostly snow. My guess for Friday around noon is snow (beginning to wind down) with lots of wind whipping it around, making for difficult travel/reduced visibility.
OT Re: Official Winter Storm Thread for 12/21 - 12/26
LOL> That's Dumb from Cleveland morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. That clip's from a year or two ago but did cause a minor internet sensation. He's the big fat stupid idiot on the show... :wink:
LOL> That's Dumb from Cleveland morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. That clip's from a year or two ago but did cause a minor internet sensation. He's the big fat stupid idiot on the show... :wink:
It was on regular TV....I thought it was halerious....BUT then again...censorship is required here
Cops , private snow plows and other various bad-***** use chains. They are legal when there is snow and ice on the roads. I have a pair, they turn a 2 wheel drive vehicle into a snow eating monster.
reminds me of this video
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPHRIvQQRUI]YouTube - Guy In A Bear Suit Hurricane IKE Galveston[/ame]
