Peterson Column: Tech the best in the Big 12 right now, ISU isn't far behind

Randy Peterson just dropped his latest column.

Through four weeks, he’s calling Texas Tech the Big 12’s best team right now — with Iowa State, Utah and BYU right behind them. He breaks down why the Red Raiders’ win over Utah was so impressive, where the Cyclones fit into the mix, and what it could all mean for the league’s playoff hopes.

2025 Big XII Championship Projections

Hey, y'all. This is apparently the 9th year I've done these projections. Is it a coincidence that this has been the best nine-year stretch in ISU football history? You be the judge.

In short: This is 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the rest of the Big 12 football season in Python, using Ken Massey’s rating system for the odds for every remaining game.

Here are the chances for each team to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The parenthetical is their regular-season chances of finishing 1st and 2nd.

Iowa St.: 39.9% (23.4% 1st, 16.5% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 30.5% (15.9% 1st, 14.6% 2nd)
BYU: 28.0% (15.1% 1st, 12.9% 2nd)
TCU: 25.2% (13.3% 1st, 11.9% 2nd)
Arizona St: 19.0% (9.1% 1st, 9.9% 2nd)
Kansas: 15.0% (7.0% 1st, 8.0% 2nd)
Utah: 11.7% (4.9% 1st, 6.9% 2nd)
UCF: 7.5% (3.0% 1st, 4.4% 2nd)
Houston: 5.2% (2.0% 1st, 3.1% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 4.9% (1.6% 1st, 3.3% 2nd)
Cincinnati: 4.1% (1.6% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
Arizona: 3.8% (1.4% 1st, 2.3% 2nd)
Baylor: 3.8% (1.3% 1st, 2.5% 2nd)
Colorado: 0.8% (0.2% 1st, 0.6% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 0.4% (0.1% 1st, 0.3% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.3% (0.1% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)

No surprise that there's a lot a parity, with no one over a 40 percent change of making the championship game.

Most likely championship game matchups:

Iowa St./Texas Tech: 8.2%
BYU/Iowa St.: 7.2%
Iowa St./TCU: 6.2%
BYU/Texas Tech: 5.0%
Arizona St/Iowa St.: 4.6%
TCU/Texas Tech: 4.6%
BYU/TCU: 4.1%
Iowa St./Kansas: 3.6%
Arizona St/Texas Tech: 3.2%
Arizona St/BYU: 3.1%
Arizona St/TCU: 2.6%
Iowa St./Utah: 2.6%
BYU/Kansas: 2.4%
Kansas/Texas Tech: 2.4%
Texas Tech/Utah: 2.4%
Kansas/TCU: 2.2%

And here’s Iowa State’s chances of ending up at any given record and their chances of making the championship game at that record:

ISU record chances:
5-7: 0.2%
6-6: 2.0%
7-5: 7.9%
8-4: 19.3%
9-3: 28.9%
10-2: 26.2%
11-1: 12.9%
12-0: 2.6%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.0%
8-4: 0.1%
9-3: 14.8%
10-2: 77.1%
11-1: 99.2%
12-0: 100.0%

I no longer think the league sucks

I actually think it’s pretty solid and that we overreacted to a few losses to solid SEC teams and our bottom feeders looking like crap. We don’t have a top five caliber team but we have a number of top 30 caliber teams that can compete for the conference championship.

I don’t think anybody has really separated themselves as the favorite. Texas Tech got a big win today but there’s a decent chance we’ve been overrating Utah.

Kansas Relays "paused" to save money

That's right. The recipients of a $300M gift are "pausing" a 100-year-old nationally-renowned event in order to save...$350,000.

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Athletic Director Travis Goff said the decision was the best option as KU navigates “expense management” due to the House v. NCAA settlement, which requires schools that opt in to fund up to $20.5 million annually in athlete revenue sharing.

“It really is tied most directly to expense management, and just needing to get our legs underneath us in this new chapter with the House settlement,” Goff said.

The pause is expected to save roughly $350,000 in expenses, but Goff emphasized this is not the end of the 102-year-old tradition, rather a short-term decision as the department adjusts to the new financial landscape. It’s also worth noting that over the summer, KU Athletics stepped away from the Rim Rock Farm Classic, the annual high school meet that brought nearly 2,500 athletes to Lawrence last September.




As the Journal-World reported in May, KU Athletics gradually eliminated, via a combination of a hiring freeze, voluntary separations and layoffs, 30 employees from the department, in order to save $3 million. Goff later said during a KU Athletics board meeting in June that over a nine-month period, the department had found ways to reduce its expenses by more than $15 million in total, many of which were not expected to come to fruition until the fiscal year 2026.

Most welcoming road game fans

Of all the road ISU games that I've been to Oklahoma State has had the most complimentary and welcoming fans that I've encountered. I heard tons of them saying things along the lines of "thanks for coming" and just general appreciation from their fans being super cordial. What have been your good road team experiences? Random thought, but bye week.

Kentucky vs Louisville drama

If true, this is hilarious
“Per my sources, Pope was set to meet with Kinney at midnight that first night that coaches could meet with players, and Kelsey was supposed to meet with him shortly afterwards,” Polacheck said on KSR Happy Hour. “I was told that Pope was running late to the meeting and Kelsey was already there, so Kelsey decided to go in, start his meeting Tay Kinney and I was told Pope was upset. There were some words exchanged. I was told it’s an exaggeration to say they nearly came to blows, but there was definitely some animosity between the two.”

***2025 Week 4 (Sept.18-Sept. 20) CFB Games Thread***

Bad Thursday Night game: Rice @ Charlotte

Squawkeyes on Friday Night at 7 pm on Fox vs. Rutgers.

Some of the good ones Saturday:

Texas Tech at Utah11:00 amFOX
SMU at TCU11:00 amESPN2
Michigan at Nebraska2:30 pmCBS
Auburn at Oklahoma2:30 pmABC
Arizona State at Baylor6:30 pmFOX
Illinois at Indiana6:30 pmNBC

The Beat Reporters: G5 road games, Rocco’s season, and ranking ISU’s schedule

Jake Brend, Rob Gray, and Ben Hutchens debate whether or not Iowa State should continue to play road games at Group of 5 programs before breaking down Rocco’s start to the season, the remaining Iowa State schedule, and more. Presented by Kelderman Manufacturing.

Enjoy!

Travel to TCU

Has anyone ever gone to an away TCU game?

As it’s looking like this could be another special year and that TCU game looks like it could have massive implications I am playing with the idea of making the trip. But as I was thinking about it TCU’s stadium and game day atmosphere may be the the one school from the hateful eight I have never heard anyone comment on.

Sounds like The Knoll is a dump

Doubt future ISU presidential candidates would want to live there. The best solution might be to tear it down and rebuild.

Free Streaming service for OTA Antenna Channels

I have an antenna but my signal is not great in my basement even though I live in NW Ankeny close to the towers in Alleman. The antenna I have is an amplified indoor antenna and it doesn't cut out but the picture quality on Fox in particular is not that great. Is there a free streaming service to get the OTA channels on? I cut my Hulu Live subscription to save money so only live TV I get is OTA. I miss some games but it is hard to justify the cost of all the streaming stuff now. I still get channels but like I said the picture on Fox on one of my TVs (the one I watch football on the most) is not as good. It is a 4K TV and the picture on streaming is great so not a TV problem.

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