This is from the NWS discussion thread. If I read it correctly, they are saying that 2 out of 3 computer models say that it will stay south and mostly miss us. At this time, they are forecasting based on those two models.
CONSEQUENTLY TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN THE TUNE OF 10 TO 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE MARCH. ALREADY BY
FRIDAY UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO VARIOUS MED RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH
GFS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A BROADER...MORE SLOWLY
MOVING INTERMOUNTAIN REGION H500
TROUGH COMPARED TO BOTH THE 12Z/00Z
GEM AND 12Z/00Z EURO SOLUTIONS. THIS HAS BROAD IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS
GFS REMAINS QUITE BULLISH IN FIRST
INCREASING WARM AIR
ADVECTION FORCING AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA
ON FRIDAY AND THEN AMPLIFYING THE SYSTEM OVER IOWA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A RATHER POTENT STORM. THOUGH THE 00Z GEM ALSO
AMPLIFIES THE SYSTEM IT CONTINUES TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS
IT BEGINS TO DIG THE ENTIRE WAVE SOONER AS IT DEEPENS THE H500 LOW
OVER OK AND AR RATHER THAN THE
GFS AMPLIFICATION IN KS...MO...AND
IA. THIS LEADS TO SOME PRECIPITATION BUT NOT THE BROAD AND EXTENDED
HIGHER IMPACT SOLUTION THAT THE
GFS PROVIDES. THE 00Z EURO HAS AGAIN
MIRRORED PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND ONLY THE SOUTH BEING BRUSHED WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY SHOWING THE
BETTER CHANCES...BUT OVERALL WILL TEND TO LEAN TOWARD THE EURO MODEL
AND GEM OVER THE
GFS. THE
GFS LOOKS TOO AMPLIFIED TOO FAR NORTH AT
THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE SYSTEM LOOKS LARGE ENOUGH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
TO EITHER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OR THE GREAT PLAINS IF IT
DOES INDEED DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL EVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITHS SOME MODERATION IN
H850 READINGS BY FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE BACK INTO THE
30S AND 40S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE COLDEST NIGHT STILL LOOKS
LIKE WED NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH AND LOW TO MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.