Winter Aint Over Yet (3/23-3/24 Weather Thread)
- Thread starter chuckd4735
- Start date
This is from the NWS discussion thread. If I read it correctly, they are saying that 2 out of 3 computer models say that it will stay south and mostly miss us. At this time, they are forecasting based on those two models.
CONSEQUENTLY TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN THE TUNE OF 10 TO 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE MARCH. ALREADY BY
FRIDAY UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO VARIOUS MED RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH GFS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A BROADER...MORE SLOWLY
MOVING INTERMOUNTAIN REGION H500 TROUGH COMPARED TO BOTH THE 12Z/00Z
GEM AND 12Z/00Z EURO SOLUTIONS. THIS HAS BROAD IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS GFS REMAINS QUITE BULLISH IN FIRST
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION FORCING AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA
ON FRIDAY AND THEN AMPLIFYING THE SYSTEM OVER IOWA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A RATHER POTENT STORM. THOUGH THE 00Z GEM ALSO
AMPLIFIES THE SYSTEM IT CONTINUES TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS
IT BEGINS TO DIG THE ENTIRE WAVE SOONER AS IT DEEPENS THE H500 LOW
OVER OK AND AR RATHER THAN THE GFS AMPLIFICATION IN KS...MO...AND
IA. THIS LEADS TO SOME PRECIPITATION BUT NOT THE BROAD AND EXTENDED
HIGHER IMPACT SOLUTION THAT THE GFS PROVIDES. THE 00Z EURO HAS AGAIN
MIRRORED PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND ONLY THE SOUTH BEING BRUSHED WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY SHOWING THE
BETTER CHANCES...BUT OVERALL WILL TEND TO LEAN TOWARD THE EURO MODEL
AND GEM OVER THE GFS. THE GFS LOOKS TOO AMPLIFIED TOO FAR NORTH AT
THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE SYSTEM LOOKS LARGE ENOUGH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
TO EITHER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OR THE GREAT PLAINS IF IT
DOES INDEED DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL EVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITHS SOME MODERATION IN
H850 READINGS BY FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE BACK INTO THE
30S AND 40S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE COLDEST NIGHT STILL LOOKS
LIKE WED NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH AND LOW TO MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.
CONSEQUENTLY TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IN THE TUNE OF 10 TO 20
DEGREES COLDER THAN EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE MARCH. ALREADY BY
FRIDAY UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO CREEP INTO VARIOUS MED RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS WITH GFS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A BROADER...MORE SLOWLY
MOVING INTERMOUNTAIN REGION H500 TROUGH COMPARED TO BOTH THE 12Z/00Z
GEM AND 12Z/00Z EURO SOLUTIONS. THIS HAS BROAD IMPLICATIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS GFS REMAINS QUITE BULLISH IN FIRST
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION FORCING AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA
ON FRIDAY AND THEN AMPLIFYING THE SYSTEM OVER IOWA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A RATHER POTENT STORM. THOUGH THE 00Z GEM ALSO
AMPLIFIES THE SYSTEM IT CONTINUES TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS
IT BEGINS TO DIG THE ENTIRE WAVE SOONER AS IT DEEPENS THE H500 LOW
OVER OK AND AR RATHER THAN THE GFS AMPLIFICATION IN KS...MO...AND
IA. THIS LEADS TO SOME PRECIPITATION BUT NOT THE BROAD AND EXTENDED
HIGHER IMPACT SOLUTION THAT THE GFS PROVIDES. THE 00Z EURO HAS AGAIN
MIRRORED PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING WELL SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND ONLY THE SOUTH BEING BRUSHED WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY SHOWING THE
BETTER CHANCES...BUT OVERALL WILL TEND TO LEAN TOWARD THE EURO MODEL
AND GEM OVER THE GFS. THE GFS LOOKS TOO AMPLIFIED TOO FAR NORTH AT
THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE SYSTEM LOOKS LARGE ENOUGH TO BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
TO EITHER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OR THE GREAT PLAINS IF IT
DOES INDEED DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH. FOR THE MOST PART...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL EVEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WITHS SOME MODERATION IN
H850 READINGS BY FRIDAY...HIGHS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE BACK INTO THE
30S AND 40S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE COLDEST NIGHT STILL LOOKS
LIKE WED NIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH AND LOW TO MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.
Going into April, don't expect the pattern to change anytime soon. Here's a good read as to what's going on.
Midwest, East: More Snow, Cold Despite Spring Arrival
Midwest, East: More Snow, Cold Despite Spring Arrival
You don't have to tell me. We had a good old fashioned blizzard yesterday and last night. New snow on Sunday night and Monday morning, high winds and cold Monday afternoon and night.
Dang Greenland Block. And the Omega sucks too.
Midwest, East: More Snow, Cold Despite Spring Arrival
K
KFitzy87
Guest
Seems like when the groundhog predicts winter, we get warm temps... And when it predicts spring, we get winter weather... **** you Phil
Uggh... Got the dreaded lime green card from USPS yesterday informing me I need to shovel out my mailbox... Made it all winter without one and got nailed with it on what I hope is the last snowfall. Now I know what my neighbor was talking about.
This time of the year is worst for that because you are invariably chipping several inches of ice. Good luck with that.
Most recent runs of the GFS and GEM would hit Iowa very hard. Interesting to see what the Euro says later.
