What is the peak for ISU's football program

[AZClone84]

I have been wondering this lately and would like some input from the folks here. While this site has varying opinions on almost everything (and that's good), we can all agree that Iowa State will never play for a National Championship in football. In fact, I am convinced that with the balance of power and built-in advantages of southern schools, that Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Oregon are the only "cold weather" programs that can do it.

Would be curious to hear the thoughts. My opinion: I think a 10 year period with an average of 7.5 wins per year would be phenomenal. This would likely include a couple 9-10 win seasons along with a couple of 4-5 win seasons.

The SEC is the best league in America, but you could argue ISU has one of the toughest setups in that they are a cold weather team in a warmer weather conference, and getting enough athletes on the defensive side of the ball to stop Big 12 offenses is challenging.

Your thoughts?

 

[CYphyllis]

Thoughts? It's an inane question with no answer. To speculate what is the absolute top for any program is to completely ignore the basic ebb and flow of collegiate sports.

 

[DeereClone]

October 18th, 2002.

 

[BCClone]

My thoughts?

Your either a ****** canoe or troll.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

What's out average wins per year? I'd guess 4 or 5? Double it and you're probably looking at our ceiling.

 

[CyArob]

National championship in 2100. Division 2.

 

[Mesaclone1]

Our potential peak is no different than that of every other P5 program in the nation. The likelihood of attaining that peak in the short term is very low, however, but lets be clear...we are capable of making a college playoff. Iowa nearly made it last season, and they have no more "innate" advantages than does ISU. In this day and age, program history and pedigree mean very little...great coaching, a solid structural/facility framework, and luck...paired with the statistical inevitability of ANY program achieving success at some point...are the ingredients for "peaking" to the level of achieving the College playoffs.

In other words, our peak potential is achieving the college playoffs...the same as for every other P5 school.

 

[Deanster]

I have been wondering this lately and would like some input from the folks here. While this site has varying opinions on almost everything (and that's good), we can all agree that Iowa State will never play for a National Championship in football. In fact, I am convinced that with the balance of power and built-in advantages of southern schools, that Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Oregon are the only "cold weather" programs that can do it.

Would be curious to hear the thoughts. My opinion: I think a 10 year period with an average of 7.5 wins per year would be phenomenal. This would likely include a couple 9-10 win seasons along with a couple of 4-5 win seasons.

The SEC is the best league in America, but you could argue ISU has one of the toughest setups in that they are a cold weather team in a warmer weather conference, and getting enough athletes on the defensive side of the ball to stop Big 12 offenses is challenging.

Your thoughts?

Michigan State played in the Semi-Final this year... With how weak the West div. is in the BIG 10, Iowa was very close to the playoff this year as well. As for Iowa State... the ceiling is much lower than anybody probably wants to admit. A combination of things... year in year out ISU has one of the toughest schedules, very little recruiting advantages, cold weather, etc... There will be good years, 9, maybe 10 wins. But much more bad than good years.

 

[BringBackJohnny]

Beat Oklahoma 2 times in 5 years. That will be our peak. Should result in a 4th place finish in the league.

 

[CYCLNST8]

Averaging 5-8 wins a year is realistically attainable. Schools such as Northwestern, Stanford, Boise State, & Kansas State have academic or geographic recruiting disadvantages but still find a way to be regularly successful. One of the biggest hurdles this program has to overcome is a psychological one. Think of all the close wins that have been ****** away. The curse of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory has become a self fulfilling prophecy.

There is no longer a huge talent or facilities discrepancy with the rest of the conference as there has been in the past. It's one thing to lose to superior talent when you're not a blue blood program. What's unacceptable is losing because you beat yourself with poor execution and fundamentals. That's what has separated the aforementioned schools from Iowa State. Bill Snyder's teams make few mistakes. You improve your chances by winning the turnover battle and decreasing the amount of penalties you commit. You improve your chances by winning the line of scrimmage. You improve your chances with a solid game plan. I have no doubt that if Campbell can bring these missing elements to Ames we will see more success.

 

[buf87]

Peak might rise if we can get back to division and have Kansas, KSU, Texas in our division

 

[AZClone84]

The Michigan State and Iowa examples prove my point further.

it is harder to win the NC today because you have to win a 2-game playoff against elite competition. Previously, teams like Colorado and Georgia Tech have been able to share NC's by being voted #1 in a poll.

MSU had a great season (probably their best ever), but in the end, they didn't have the horses to compete with Bama.

And for the record, Wisconsin and Nebraska have built in advantages over the ISU's of the world, and I don't expect to see either of them win a title either.

 

[cytheguy]

Michigan State played in the Semi-Final this year... With how weak the West div. is in the BIG 10, Iowa was very close to the playoff this year as well. As for Iowa State... the ceiling is much lower than anybody probably wants to admit. A combination of things... year in year out ISU has one of the toughest schedules, very little recruiting advantages, cold weather, etc... There will be good years, 9, maybe 10 wins. But much more bad than good years.

Having the toughest schedule year in and year out means we suck. And I agree with those who say being the northern most school in a southern, warm weather conference gives us zero advantages and probably never will. So that said, I'd say our ceiling is 9-10 wins once in a VERY, VERY great while, with 4-6 win seasons being the norm.

Our only other option would be join the B1G where we'd be similar to Indiana or Purdue, or go to the MAC and dominate.

 

[AZClone84]

I also think that Iowa State would do a bit better in the B1G for the following reasons:

1. Would be in West division
2. The type of kid that ISU recruits is more conducive to B1G than Big XII

 

[Skidoosh]

We peaked when we beat OSU and its all been downhill since.

 

[NetflixAndClone]

I agree we might not win a national championship bit with the play off system it becomes more likely, if it expands more the likelihood Iowa state could play for a national championship goes up. I just think about 2012 season with k state and how they were #1 for a little bit. If Iowa state could win the big 12 in the future, I believe that means we would get a spot in the playoffs (if play off spots are reserved by the conference champions). Very unlikely but a playoff systems helps us if we ever come to that point.

 

[CYCLNST8]

Hey *******: wake up. We're not getting a B1G invite.

We're fortunate to still be in a premier league & the AD has finally invested into the program facilities-wise so that the necessary tools are in place. The most loyal fanbase (arguably in the entire world) is dying for a winner.

Matt Campbell is a young up-and-comer who obviously believes it can be done. He's not a Gene Chizik who can get a promotion after a couple losing seasons. He'll either sink or swim in Ames. I'd be more worried if we had been forced to hire a washed-up veteran type like Charlie Weis or Bill Callahan who'd be interested in just collecting a paycheck.

 

[HandSanitizer]

Get divisions back and 12 teams.

IMO and hard to swallow, but become a poor mans K-state. Which means at worst be 5-6 wins and not a joke. Not even asking for Fiesta bowls, cotton bowls etc.. I think we do lower to mid level bowls and once in awhile get the Alamo or better.
its ok not to go to a bowl game (which means a 5 win or below team), but not 7 out of 10 years. not only that 6 of our seasons are stupid sucky.

K-State: 7 bowls in 10 years. down years are 5-6 wins
2015 - 6-7 Liberty Bowl
2014 - 9-4 Alamo Bowl
2013 - 8-5 BWW Bowl Tempe
2012 - 11-2 Fiesta Bowl
2011 - 10-3 Cotton Bowl
2010 - 7-6 Pinstripe Bowl
2009 - 6-6 no bowl
2008 - 5-7 no bowl
2007 - 5-7 no bowl
2006 - 7-6 Texas Bowl


ISU: 3 bowls in 10 years. and not very good ones. and went 1-2
2015 - 3-9 no bowl
2014 - 2-10 no bowl
2013 - 3-9 no bowl
2012 - 6-7 liberty Bowl (killed by non P5)
2011 - 6-7 Pinstripe Bowl (not a great game)
2010 - 5-7 no bowl
2009 - 7-6 Insight Bowl (14-13 over minny)
2008 - 2-10 no bowl
2007 - 3-9 no bowl
2006 - 4-8 no bowl


I am surprised with our rich 10 year history we don't sell out the stadium more...wait.


I just want to go to Jack Trice on a Saturday game day and feel like we have a chance to beat OU.
Just not there right now. Hope with the new staff that changes.

 

[FocusTown]

Just like none of us thought we would be a top 5 team in basketball 6 years ago...it's achievable in football too.

 

[ThatllDoCy]

The trouble with this type of speculation is that there is no way to predict the future, so the only answer is that there is not one.

If you had to apply analysis to it, you would use past performance, so that would be your ceiling. Then try your best to adjust for the changes in the conference and College Football environment.

Years ago you could have asked what is Baylor's ceiling vs Texas' ceiling and you would not have come up with this year's results. So all you can really do is try to be hopeful, but realistic and enjoy wins when you get them.

Are we going to win an NC in football? I am not putting money on it, but I am not going to say it is impossible, because it isn't. It's just improbable based on historical data.