Stopped reading right there. How can I entertain a premise built upon a falsehood?
What is the peak for ISU's football program
- Thread starter AZClone84
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Stopped reading right there. How can I entertain a premise built upon a falsehood?
At one point Kansas State was historically THE worst football program in the nation. At one point you could argue that Iowa wasn't too far behind them. Baylor was the worst program in the Big 12 for the first 10 years the conference existed.
Other programs with similar challenges to ISU -- Kansas, Wake Forest, Indiana, Washington State, and Vanderbilt are the current/traditional bottom-feeders in P-5 conferences, correct? Yet, except for Indiana who is lousier than we are at football, each of those programs have been to a BCS bowl and/or at least won 9+ games in a season within the last 12-15 years.
Kansas was in the Orange Bowl. Think about that.
Other programs with similar challenges to ISU -- Kansas, Wake Forest, Indiana, Washington State, and Vanderbilt are the current/traditional bottom-feeders in P-5 conferences, correct? Yet, except for Indiana who is lousier than we are at football, each of those programs have been to a BCS bowl and/or at least won 9+ games in a season within the last 12-15 years.
Kansas was in the Orange Bowl. Think about that.
5 years ago I would have said ISU will NEVER have a shot at a title. But then Baylor happened. I know they are in Texas, but I also know that they quite possibly were the worse program in NCAA history. Since Iowa, Wisconsin, and other midwest schools have had a chance, we can. We just need the perfect storm of money, coaching, and recruiting classes. I still put our chances at being in a title game at .01%, but its not impossible in the future.
However if you look at ISU football trend chart it appears to be headed in the wrong direction and this data is skewed due to our history being better than current.
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While it is a long shot, it's not impossible for Iowa State to be a solid competitive program. I don't imagine they will ever be on the level of a consistent national playoff contender (few really are). I think ISU can become a K-State of sorts.
7-8 win seasons most years with an occasional 9-10 win peak and a 4-5 win valley in between.
The first step is letting Matt Campbell build the foundation. This may take 4-5 years. One thing I think Campbell will bring in recruitment in new areas. I think Ohio could be a great place to snag 3-4 recruits per year and these kids will be used to the Midwest weather and culture. Add some jucos to that and I really like his recruiting strategy so far.
You need someone with a vision and ability to execute the plan. Rhoades was a good guy and hard worker (as the hard hat showed) but he never had a vision for what ISU can be. As a Hawk fan I will say your program can be better. You have a dedicated fanbase and an administration willing to do what is needed.
Yeah. Get 2 good recruits that pan out and bam, you're a top 10 basketball team. Get 2 good recruits that pan out in football and... you still aren't very good. They might win you 1-2 extra games over the course of their careers. You need a dozen guys in football to match the impact of 1 blue chip basketball player.
For all interested i posted projected wins and expectations based on historical win/loss/tie percentages at ISU - I weighted all wins and looses to a 12 game schedule and ran the numbers in minitab. ISU should avererage 5 wins a season as general expecation. 99.7% of the seasons will fall between .5 and 11 wins. Therefore we have a 2.5% chance of a 10 win season based on standard deviations and normalizing the data.
However if you look at ISU football trend chart it appears to be headed in the wrong direction and this data is skewed due to our history being better than current.
Wow.
That had to be painful for you, right?
Not really. For starters, it's hard not to do better than the past three years. But really, ISU does have a good fanbase that, while it may not trump Iowa's in sheer numbers, you guys are dedicated just like Hawk fans in the 70's.
After all we do share the common trait of being Iowans you know! Too dedicated for our own good. Trust me, I sat through the Todd Lickliter years in Hawk bball.
Bowling 4 out of every 5 years. Beat Iowa 4 out of 5 years. Win conf title once a decade. Run at a national title maybe during conf title year. That assumes the B12 stays intact. We have one of the nicest football facilities in the country. One of the nicest football stadiums in the country. The most loyal fans in the country. Recruiting will always be our challenge. So player development is a MUST. Folks are mentioning K State - that is the model. Need to redshirt every damn freshman and give them more time to develop.
Dedicated? We're borderline insane. I would argue it is harder to do better than 2-3 wins when your out-of-conference scheduling flexibility is limited to only two teams (often times just one since we insist on playing UNI almost every damn year) and you can't dodge any of the top teams in your conference.
That being said, we should be able to occasionally scratch & claw our way to the middle of the conference standings.
It is possible to peak more than once. It's just that there is a recharge time in between.
Yes, but you should be beating UNI every year and whichever MAC team you play (easier said than done I know) and then if you split with us you should be going 2-1 most years with some 3-0.
You are already better than KU and imo right on KSU's heels (that old man won't coach there forever). Tech always seems to blow you guys out but they always seem like a 6-6 team so you can pass them. Texas is down but they probably won't be forever. Take advantage of that while you can. OK State is good but beatable. West VA is weird and unpredictable(so is PSU it must be an eastern thing) so you should beat them 50-50.
So, that leaves you around 6-6 or 7-5 half the time. 25 percent of the time you will do crappy and finish 4-8. The other 25 percent you will rise up and knock off a TCU or Baylor and finish 9-3.
Most of Iowa States most successful seasons have come during divisional play of the Big 12 era. Round robin format of the Big8(7 or 6) and the current Big 12 era have historically not been kind.
ISU ceiling in divisional format is 8-9 wins with a punchers chance at more
ISU ceiling in round robin play is 4-6 wins with an outside shot at 7
ISU ceiling in divisional format is 8-9 wins with a punchers chance at more
ISU ceiling in round robin play is 4-6 wins with an outside shot at 7
Pie in the sky here.....bear with me.
Campbell comes in and has a bowl team in 2016 and can knock down a say #35 recruiting class for Feb 2017. 2017 season guys seem to show development and improvement and the stars align for ISU to get a #20 recruiting class....these things would combine for something like year 4 of the Campbell era to challenge for a Big 12 title.
I am not trying to sound crazy but point out a way it is possible. What would need to happen is definite player development from this coaching staff and no major in game gaffes similar to the previous staff. You need to have talent too which is why I threw in those two recruiting level ranks.
In all honesty you would need 4 top 20 classes for the most part to have proper talent to compete for a playoff spot in the current format unless everything went your way. No offense to Iowa but that might include being able to dodge the top 3-4 teams in your conference otherwise talent and developed talent are very necessary.
I would agree with this. However, you have to do more than just dodge the top teams in your conference. You guys have to start beating the teams on your level or slightly above. For example, losing to the K-States, Techs, Toledo, and West Virginia type teams needs to be the first step.
And you forgot to include a pansy schedule that didn't include the power houses on the eastern side of the conference. Non-conference wasn't very tough either.
