Way too early football predictions?

[cyclones500]

" make Iowa play from behind, you are far more likely to succeed.

Yes. That's a big part of the formula. ...

Now of course playing with a lead is always preferable to catch-up no matter who you are. But w/ Iowa, it can be THE difference. Generally speaking, Iowa's system isn't built for major rallies but also is unlikely to allow big comebacks -- get a lead and you can maximize the ball-control, low-turnover, field position, but harder to flip the switch in style to make up large deficit.

 

[cyclonehomer]

Petras does suck, but he literally doesn't need to do anything for them to beat us. They just have to wait for us to **** up, which we will, and they've got us.

There is a blue print on how to beat Iowa. We have players that can execute it. We have coaches that refuse to embrace it. And as annoyed as I seem at the moment, I'm really quite fine with it because these coaches keep doing things that haven't been done here.

Until I see ISU come out and say "we don't think you can stop XH or Noel and we're gonna keep going to them until you do" I'm just gonna assume ISU will lose a close game in which both teams run the ball a lot.

In Iowa's losses to Purdue and Kentucky (I think this is far closer to what ISU should be looking to do, haven't shown they have an O-line even close to Michigan or Wisconsin) David Bell went 11 receptions for 240, and Wandale Robinson went 10/170. In both games those teams threw early and often and made Iowa play from behind. The game can always go sideways but I just don't think you want to try to play their game and punt back and forth until one team (usually not Iowa) has killer turnovers.

 

[cyclonehomer]

Yes. That's a big part of the formula. ...

Now of course playing with a lead is always preferable to catch-up no matter who you are. But w/ Iowa, it can be THE difference. Generally speaking, Iowa's system isn't built for major rallies but also is unlikely to allow big comebacks -- get a lead and you can maximize the ball-control, low-turnover, field position, but harder to flip the switch in style to make up large deficit.

Agree. Obviously it's always better to play with a lead, but especially so against Iowa. There's a difference between doing so against them and a lot of B12 schools. Iowa does not want a game in their quarterback's hands basically ever and it's important you can make Petras be the one to have to beat you.

 

[CyCloned]

We were healthy in 2017 and 2019 and couldn't get it done.

We WILL turn the ball over at horrible times and in the worst possible way. Something about Iowa's aura causes us to have unforced errors. 2017 Park throws a pick in the Iowa red zone, the punt return in 2019, Purdy's 2nd/3rd picks last year, and Hall's fumble in our own end zone last year were all totally unforced and completely the result of our team being mind ******.

You act like ISU had no chance in any of those games. Last year was just a matter of hanging onto the ball. Most of the games with Iowa under Campbell have been really close, even though the Clones have lost them all. Not sure ISU was totally healthy in 2019. In Campbell's first year ISU was completely out classed. Other than that they have been close enough that a play or two determined the game.

 

[madguy30]

Until I see ISU come out and say "we don't think you can stop XH or Noel and we're gonna keep going to them until you do" I'm just gonna assume ISU will lose a close game in which both teams run the ball a lot.

In Iowa's losses to Purdue and Kentucky (I think this is far closer to what ISU should be looking to do, haven't shown they have an O-line even close to Michigan or Wisconsin) David Bell went 11 receptions for 240, and Wandale Robinson went 10/170. In both games those teams threw early and often and made Iowa play from behind. The game can always go sideways but I just don't think you want to try to play their game and punt back and forth until one team (usually not Iowa) has killer turnovers.

It's not often that ISU in general does a 'this is what we'll do until you stop it' with anyone and it's too bad.

Football doesn't have to be complicated.

 

[Al_4_State]

You act like ISU had no chance in any of those games. Last year was just a matter of hanging onto the ball. Most of the games with Iowa under Campbell have been really close, even though the Clones have lost them all. Not sure ISU was totally healthy in 2019. In Campbell's first year ISU was completely out classed. Other than that they have been close enough that a play or two determined the game.

Oh, it's close. But we just keep losing.

This doesn't apply to another opponent. We beat better teams than Iowa every damn year. But we can't beat them, and we won't beat them until we quit trying to be them for a game and there's no indication that Campbell will do that.

We haven't forced a turnover against Iowa in 8 years.

 

[Remo Gaggi]

You have to consider when was the last time the hoks turned the ball over against us? Never. Add to that a punter that constantly puts us in bad field position.

 

[madguy30]

You act like ISU had no chance in any of those games. Last year was just a matter of hanging onto the ball. Most of the games with Iowa under Campbell have been really close, even though the Clones have lost them all. Not sure ISU was totally healthy in 2019. In Campbell's first year ISU was completely out classed. Other than that they have been close enough that a play or two determined the game.

That's the point though. ISU's good enough to beat Iowa those seasons but just doesn't come out and get it done when it's needed.

It's the general theme for the first three games of each football season. Slow walk it out. Last year there was no reason for it.

 

[awd4cy]

You act like ISU had no chance in any of those games. Last year was just a matter of hanging onto the ball. Most of the games with Iowa under Campbell have been really close, even though the Clones have lost them all. Not sure ISU was totally healthy in 2019. In Campbell's first year ISU was completely out classed. Other than that they have been close enough that a play or two determined the game.

Minus 2017 game, our offense has been pretty much completely inept against Iowa. That 2018 game was really bad. Think we crossed the 50 once that game.

 

[cyclones500]

That's the point though. ISU's good enough to beat Iowa those seasons but just doesn't come out and get it done when it's needed.

It's the general theme for the first three games of each football season. Slow walk it out. Last year there was no reason for it.

Yeah, the slow start last season was puzzling (more like frustrating). We've all discussed that numerous times already, but ... ISU had, what, 16 returning starters or something? After a regular-season conference 1st place finish.

An earlier post mentioned a couple players were "hobbled" (or "dinged-up" as the popular saying goes) and certainly there can be some rust, but somehow other teams hit the ground running in September.

Iowa was no pushover last season so nobody expected a cakewalk, but talking general start to ISU's season tooth-and-nail to beat UNI, then muddled around and let Iowa control the game, and lost to Baylor so we can't use the 'saving it for Big 12' excuse. (BU was better than I expected so in retrospect not a bad loss).

/end rant (for now )

 

[twojman]

Yes, I'm worried about 2022 Iowa State football.

 

[madguy30]

Yes, I'm worried about 2022 Iowa State football.

I welcome it.

Let's see where the program really is.

 

[cyclonehomer]

I welcome it.

Let's see where the program really is.

Agreed. Times like this are when recruiting at a higher level across the board really comes into play. Obviously if the team struggles, no one should be calling for Campbell's head, but there genuinely is more talent on that sideline than maybe ever at Iowa State. Just because the names aren't the same, doesn't mean there aren't players ready to step up.

 

[madguy30]

Agreed. Times like this are when recruiting at a higher level across the board really comes into play. Obviously if the team struggles, no one should be calling for Campbell's head, but there genuinely is more talent on that sideline than maybe ever at Iowa State. Just because the names aren't the same, doesn't mean there aren't players ready to step up.

I'd like to know if the production is over a whole year's worth of time or in an 'efficiency' mode that tracks vs. playing time.

Example: Once he got more involved, Noel seemed to be the best at extending plays post catch, and Freyler and McDonald at the end of the season seemed more reliable to make a play, but none of the whole season's production from any of these players shows much.

 

[CascadeClone]

I'd like to know if the production is over a whole year's worth of time or in an 'efficiency' mode that tracks vs. playing time.

Example: Once he got more involved, Noel seemed to be the best at extending plays post catch, and Freyler and McDonald at the end of the season seemed more reliable to make a play, but none of the whole season's production from any of these players shows much.

It doesn't say in the tweet, but aren't these usually just yards from QB/RB/WR/TE ? If so, that ignores, the o-line and defense entirely, and those are critical. Defense especially for ISU...

Now, if it includes defensive and o-line starts as well as yards, then yeah I could see the concern. As Madguy says, if the program is following the process, then the backups should be OK and there should be some new stars in there too.

I would guess that RP for basketball is a lot more correlated with predicting W/L than for football, assuming that is the case.

 

[Lyon309Cy]

I think we have enough depth and talent to predict 6-6.
The real wildcard is if we actually adhere to our professed policy of players-formations-plays. Are we willing to change the formations and plays that have worked(mostly) to better fit the new personnel? Especially on offense. I'll believe it when I see it, but it would be great to see an offensive approach that takes advantage of Dekkers arm and X and Noel. If we try to pigeonhole our players into the offense we ran last year it will be ugly. Dekkers will fail if they try to make him be Purdy. If we truly are trying to get our best players on the field as much as possible we probably won't see so many 2 and 3 TE sets and we'll stretch the field more vertically. I think our offense is either awful, by trying to be what we've been, or could take a big leap forward and be a lot more dangerous. This feels like a prove-it year for Manning. Can we be an effective offense without generational players at 3 skill positions? I'm not terribly optimistic.
Defensively, everyone tries to run what we run, and a few teams have started to figure out how to move the ball on us. I'd love to see some wrinkles.
We are as stable as any team in the conference, along with Okie St, so maybe some of the other teams will have a harder time replacing their losses (including coaching changes). There are a bunch of unknowns everywhere in the conference, and no one team seems especially dominant. We could be less stale and predictable and surprise everyone. Or we could struggle finding an identity, make a bunch of freshman/first year mistakes and not be able to consistently play well enough to win. I think we improve through the year, but we'll know after the noncon if our offensive approach has changed at all.

 

[Aclone]

Can't feel good about the first game until we do better in the first game.

This is what the SEMO game is going to be like:

Football vs Louisiana-Monroe on 9/21/2019 - Box Score - Iowa State University Athletics

The official box score of Football vs Louisiana-Monroe on 9/21/2019

cyclones.com

 

[Pope]

After watching practice tonight, I'm feeling even more optimistic!

 

[Cyforce]

Yes, I'm worried about 2022 Iowa State football.

If Purdy came back where would we be?

 

[cyputz]

Key for me would be to reiterate what Madguy 30 had noted, FOUNDATION. More interested in having proved a foundation has been established.