Tuesday Storm Thread

[cstrunk]

Yep.. the live chat on kcrg.com was funny... the guy said, VERY slim chance of tornado, conditions don't favor it. now they're all calling him out on it

He was correct in saying that the conditions do not favor the development of a tornado. The shear profiles (upper level wind speeds and directions) are lacking. Having said that, they can and sometimes do form on the leading edges of squall lines (what we have now). They are much more difficult (and sometimes impossible) to predict.

This is not a tornadic type event, thus he was correct in what he said.

*There is a pretty decent couplet (area of rotation) on radar south of Waterloo at this time.

 

[chuckd4735]

This storm kind of came out of the middle of no where, and has been building quite rapidly.

 

[khess83]

When the wind really starts blowing like this is 801 tall enough that it starts swaying? I've always wanted to know that.

Not that I have ever noticed but some coworkers believe it does. There are still 11 floors above our office so maybe at the top you would really notice it.

 

[pthebutcher]

Yep.. the live chat on kcrg.com was funny... the guy said, VERY slim chance of tornado, conditions don't favor it. now they're all calling him out on it

Honestly it sounds like people getting worked up over interesting motions on the front of the bow....radar shows no compelling evidence of a tornado. Anytime the weather service gets reports of a "funnel" they will issue a warning.....just saying...there is a lot misreporting that goes on...especially with an uneducated public weatherwise that is excitable.

 

[pthebutcher]

This storm kind of came out of the middle of no where, and has been building quite rapidly.

Lol, this storm has been going since early this morning in SD....

 

[CycloneYoda]

My weather radio went off 10 minutes ago and said severe T-Storm for Johnson Co. until 5:45pm. Storm is still 45+ miles away.

 

[d4nim4l]

This thing is dragging down on the tail.

 

[matmann22]

Yep.. the live chat on kcrg.com was funny... the guy said, VERY slim chance of tornado, conditions don't favor it. now they're all calling him out on it

Forecasting has got to be one of the most confounding jobs on earth.

You can have the 'perfect' setup for Thunderstorms, and then nothing happens. Or you can have a questionable setup and a huge outbreak.

The 3 am forecast discussion from the NWS office in Des Moines suggested the Dakotas thunderstorm complex could make it here by late afternoon and cause an severe weather outbreak. However, they weren't confident enough in it and it had some long odds of coming to fruition. Sometimes long shots come through!

Not sure about bogus warnings but a big windy line of storms is probably throwing all kinds of turbulence up for the Dopplar to try and figure out.

From an east facing 11th story window in Downtown DM, I can see clouds moving at different speeds at different heights. I can certainly see why a spotter would be paying extra special attention...

Generally, the atmospheric setup right now isn't conducive to tornadoes but they can always happen. It is thought there wouldn't be enough 'wind shear' for tornadoes.

 

[cstrunk]

I kind of wish the storm would have have waited until after dark (besides the fact that it dropped the temps) because it seems like there would be some sweet lightning on the backside of the storm to take pics of....

 

[pthebutcher]

My weather radio went off 10 minutes ago and said severe T-Storm for Johnson Co. until 5:45pm. Storm is still 45+ miles away.

DVN is doing a good job actually giving warnings in advance. Although they are drawing them county based instead of storm based which they aren't supposed to do anymore.

 

[chuckd4735]

Lol, this storm has been going since early this morning in SD....

I am by no means an expert, but it seemed to be heading towards the Twin Cities area as one large mass, than split into two and just about dissipated before reforming in north central Iowa. I saw the images around 11 this morning, and was not concerned at all.

 

[d4nim4l]

I saw a cool cloud to cloud lightning strike earlier with some low level clouds.

 

[huntt26]

Forecasting has got to be one of the most confounding jobs on earth.

You can have the 'perfect' setup for Thunderstorms, and then nothing happens. Or you can have a questionable setup and a huge outbreak.

The 3 am forecast discussion from the NWS office in Des Moines suggested the Dakotas thunderstorm complex could make it here by late afternoon and cause an severe weather outbreak. However, they weren't confident enough in it and it had some long odds of coming to fruition. Sometimes long shots come through!

Not sure about bogus warnings but a big windy line of storms is probably throwing all kinds of turbulence up for the Dopplar to try and figure out.

From an east facing 11th story window in Downtown DM, I can see clouds moving at different speeds at different heights. I can certainly see why a spotter would be paying extra special attention...

Generally, the atmospheric setup right now isn't conducive to tornadoes but they can always happen. It is thought there wouldn't be enough 'wind shear' for tornadoes.

Very good read, you know what you're talking about. I found it funny that the guy said no way, then boom. It's always in the best interest of the guy to just say, yes, it can happen, we'll watch it.

 

[San Francisco Cy]

So any of you weather people notice the AWFUL job the weather service is doing with their warnings right now? Late warnings, questionable warning boxes, these phantom tornado warnings. sigh

What I found interesting is that I turned on Channel 8 (the Iowa Channel), expecting to see at least a half screen or a full weather studio. Only to find just words scrolling on the bottom. I guess it's ok to interrupt basketball games and prime time. But, don't mess with Oprah!

 

[iowajazz]

What I found interesting is that I turned on Channel 8 (the Iowa Channel), expecting to see at least a half screen or a full weather studio. Only to find just words scrolling on the bottom. I guess it's ok to interrupt basketball games and prime time. But, don't mess with Oprah!

Actually, KCCI was in weather coverage for quite a while, but WHO was not. KCCI just went back to Oprah about 4:40 (which has an all male audience today for some reason).

The storm has seemed to lose some steam now that it hit the Metro.

 

[Cyclonestate78]

What I found interesting is that I turned on Channel 8 (the Iowa Channel), expecting to see at least a half screen or a full weather studio. Only to find just words scrolling on the bottom. I guess it's ok to interrupt basketball games and prime time. But, don't mess with Oprah!

Are you kidding? Would you want 500 lbs of pissed off Oprah going hawk fan on you?

 

[San Francisco Cy]

Actually, KCCI was in weather coverage for quite a while, but WHO was not. KCCI just went back to Oprah about 4:40 (which has an all male audience today for some reason).

The storm has seemed to lose some steam now that it hit the Metro.

I actually turned it on around 4:10 or 4:15, and there was some Doctor on there. I hit the info key to find out it was Oprah. But, it was on pretty much the entire time, until the satellite went out...

 

[matmann22]

I am by no means an expert, but it seemed to be heading towards the Twin Cities area as one large mass, than split into two and just about dissipated before reforming in north central Iowa. I saw the images around 11 this morning, and was not concerned at all.

This start off in the Dakotas and struggled to get South of a Norfolk, NE to Denison, Iowa line. Then the complex developed an 'outflow boundary' that moved south and east. This is what fired all the stroms from Ankeny back West along the I-80 corridor.

The airmass in Central Iowa was very unstable (given mid 90s and upper 70s dew point) but lacked a trigger to get the storms developing vertically. This is what the outflow boundary did.

One of the weather questions was if the outflow boundary was strong enough to develop something. Given the strong heating, whatever 'inhibition' there was was overcome by 3 pm this afternoon. Another factor could have been 'cold pools' aloft that were left by the isolated daybreak storms in Central Iowa.

I would expect a repeat performance tomorrow if we again see the mid 90s.




** An 'outflow boundary' is the cold wind flowing out and ahead of a thunderstorm (if a storm is moving at 30 mph but has winds of 50 mph, the winds are going to race out ahead of the actual storm)

 

[isuno1fan]

There was ZERO reason to blow the siren in Clive. Ch. 8 pretty much mocked them for doing so as the radar showed nothing close to a tornado.

This is the reason people don't listen when the sirens go off because they blow them whenever the skies get dark.

 

[Ms3r4ISU]

There was ZERO reason to blow the siren in Clive. Ch. 8 pretty much mocked them for doing so as the radar showed nothing close to a tornado.

This is the reason people don't listen when the sirens go off because they blow them whenever the skies get dark.

And not to highjack this thread, but that's why tornado sirens won't be used at ISU FB games. (The boy who cried wolf...)