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Tuesday PM, Wednesday Snowstorm

scottie33

scottie33

Well-Known Member
Nov 25, 2006
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Ames, Iowa
I haven't seen many updates from the weather sites this morning, but what are we to expect? Weather.com only has like 1-3 inches but I read somewhere else where the QC is expected to get 5 inches. I know there are some weather gurus out there, I'd like to know what they are expecting and when to expect it!

It frustrates the hell out of me about snow and bball games
 
G

garn91

Well-Known Member
Jun 1, 2006
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Ankeny
3-5 inches in the forecast for Central Iowa tonight, forecast low tomorrow night...17 below, wow.

Current season snow fall for Des Moines is ahead of last year when nearly 60 inches of snow fell.
 
H

hawkeyeguy85

Member
Jan 17, 2007
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scottie33 said:
I haven't seen many updates from the weather sites this morning, but what are we to expect? Weather.com only has like 1-3 inches but I read somewhere else where the QC is expected to get 5 inches. I know there are some weather gurus out there, I'd like to know what they are expecting and when to expect it!

It frustrates the hell out of me about snow and bball games
Click to expand...

I would expect closer to 3-5" in Ames with this one.
Winter Wx Advisory for tonight, generally expecting 2-5 throughout the advisory area. Far SW Iowa will see very little, but there will be a very tight gradient for the totals going NE. I think the Highest band will be along an Algona-Hwy20/I35 interchange-Marshalltown Tama line. Winds will be an issue again afterward. Shouldn't be the brief warm up to melt/settle the snow this time.

Highest amounts I think could hit 6" of very light, fluffy snow due to the nature of the cold air, and looking at the latest models, the GFS seems to be on board with this. 18z nam just came in as well and continues to shift further SW with the highest totals, bascially the same as the last storm, NAM late to the party in falling in-line, but eventually gets there in the end.
 
snowcraig2.0

snowcraig2.0

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Nov 2, 2007
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Cedar Rapids, IA
3-5 seems to be the consensus. Looking at the swath of snow coming on the radar I would say that seems about right.

Has anyone noticed that you can usually just look at the radar and guess more accurately than the weather outlets are predicting?
 
cstrunk

cstrunk

Well-Known Member
Mar 21, 2006
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Longview, TX
Well, they have changed the previous forecast for Ames from 2-4" and some wind, to 3-7" and wind. Sounds like 4-5" of fluffy snow is a good possibility. This time, there will be no melting to stop this stuff from blowing around, and I believe there will be some healthy drifting. After the snow and blowing snow tonight and Wednesday, the coldest air of the season will be blowing our way. Forecast low for Wednesday night is -18F. Ouch. Winds 15-25 MPH gusting to 35 MPH. Double Ouch. Wind chills as low as -35F. Triple Ouch!!!
 
keepngoal

keepngoal

OKA: keepingoal
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Jun 20, 2006
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and another snow storm for a mens home BBall game.

ugh.

^^ word of the day

-keep
 
cstrunk

cstrunk

Well-Known Member
Mar 21, 2006
14,447
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Longview, TX
snowcraig2.0 said:
Has anyone noticed that you can usually just look at the radar and guess more accurately than the weather outlets are predicting?
Click to expand...

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. I've noticed it too. However, they are trying to predict what will happen, and sometimes that prediction doesn't get changed until the time that the event is actually underway. A lot of things can change snowfall amounts... more/less moisture available, snow/water ratios, snow banding, etc.

Snow banding usually has the largest effect on snow totals. If you get stuck under a heavy snow band for a few hours, you can end up with quite a bit more snow than was anticipated. This happened to Ames on Friday night. It's just too hard to nail down the exact point that the bands will set up, until you actually see them.
 
H

hawkeyeguy85

Member
Jan 17, 2007
222
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garn91 said:
3-5 inches in the forecast for Central Iowa tonight, forecast low tomorrow night...17 below, wow.

Current season snow fall for Des Moines is ahead of last year when nearly 60 inches of snow fell.
Click to expand...

Des Moines cumulative snow year(winter)-to-date

2008/09
24.5"

2007/08
20.3"

scary indeed.
 
BigDISU1

BigDISU1

Well-Known Member
Apr 10, 2006
1,196
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Oskaloosa, Iowa
snowcraig2.0 said:
3-5 seems to be the consensus. Looking at the swath of snow coming on the radar I would say that seems about right.

Has anyone noticed that you can usually just look at the radar and guess more accurately than the weather outlets are predicting?
Click to expand...

So true, RADAR is #1 for predicting weather for me, at least short term.

For example, last weekend, I was traveling to the Des Moines Area, all day long there were no weather advisories, predicing about 1-3 inches of snow. On the radar you could see a nice band of snow developing right in the middle of the state, you could just tell it was going to be alot more than 1-3 inches. 12 hours later, 8 inches of snow and I am starting to think there is a weather station conspiracy or something going on :skeptical:

I have wondered that many times too
 
H

hawkeyeguy85

Member
Jan 17, 2007
222
13
18
snowcraig2.0 said:
3-5 seems to be the consensus. Looking at the swath of snow coming on the radar I would say that seems about right.

Has anyone noticed that you can usually just look at the radar and guess more accurately than the weather outlets are predicting?
Click to expand...

Maybe, as it's happening, but not more than a few hours ahead of time.

With snow, especially light fluffy snow, the difference in what would amount to an extra .15 or .2 inches of rain means another 4 inches of snow.
Snow ratios may be 20:1 with this system so even a small miscalculation on available moisture turns into a glaring error on total snow depth.
 
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