REALISTIC expectations for 2023 football season

[Statefan10]

Especially when they give porous or non-specific reasons for the prognostication while ignoring the teams on our schedule. Realistically look at the schedule and say, confidently, who are we better than? Ohio is a given and UNI should be (though its always tougher than it should be). I think we may be better than, or at least equal to Cinci, BYU, and KU but those first two are on the road (always tougher games) and KU is hardly a given. KSU, Texas, OU, OSU, Tech, Baylor and Iowa are all better than us on paper, with at least half of those better by a mile. Where are those 9 wins and someone tell me why or how we should expect to win those games?

I think we beat Ohio, UNI, KU and upset 1 team that's better than us. I don't think we win at BYU (tough environment and altitude) but maybe eek one out in Cinci. That's 4-5 wins but wouldn't be shocked if we only beat the first three. Everything goes right? We beat the first 3, Iowa at home, 1 of the Cinci/BYU road games, and upset someone that's better than us at home (TCU or OSU). What is that? Six wins? Anything more is a probably a combination of great coaching by Clanton, Nate (our offense has the most upside of any unit on the team simply because of how it was ran...if changed I think we will be much more competent), the STs not being *******, and some overachievement.

I hope the latter happens. But the brain (resoundingly) says no.

Christ how many games have we played over the years with Matt as our head coach where we are on paper better than the other team?? Lol not many. I think using that sort of logic is just as asinine as saying we're going to win 9 games. Using your thought process, we should be getting blown out by a majority of teams that we play. We were in every single game last year except for one, maybe two. Talented players leave ALL THE TIME. You probably said the same exact thing after Lazard and Montgomery left, and then probably after Kempt got hurt. Guess what? That's why you recruit and develop talent. So you can have guys step in and produce.

 

[RagingCloner]

How in the world do you figure that?

We had a QB that came into the year with more experience (practice reps) than either of our two options this year. We had the best receiver in school history and the best pass rusher in school history. Despite all of that we mustered ONE conference win. The amazing thing is we actually beat Iowa, a usual loss no matter how much better we look than them on the field.

I count ONE surefire win on the schedule and that's Ohio. We should beat UNI, as we should every year, but that's always a nightmare game. On paper Iowa is better than us. OSU, OU, TCU, Texas, and TCU are all worlds better than us on paper. Baylor is better, and although we are competitive (if not better on paper) than Cinci and BYU we play them on the road, with both being unknown environments and one in altitude (which we are not used to playing in). KU at home is a very winnable game but hardly a given.

"Blind pessimism"? More like unrealistic optimism by a shockingly large amount of our fan base. Our offensive line is ALWAYS a problem (until it's proven it's not) as is our special teams (diddo). Elsewhere we simply have too many questions and too many holes until the team proves otherwise. Not sure I've ever seen so many positive prognostications when reality indicates otherwise. A bad team + a tougher league - two of your best players (regardless of position) in history - 4 starters due to gambling issues + many a question = 9 ******* wins???? Not sure there's enough alcohol in the world to make that projection look possible, let alone likely.

I agree that the 9 wins thing is out of the question. No part of my post was agreeing with the 9 wins being our reality this year. I just dont understand the thought process of acting like the world is ending and that we are just going to suck. You are using speculation to determine we will only win one game from the sounds of it, and I gave you factual information on how close we were to winning 6 last year. Here's another fun fact for you-the "best receiver in ISU history" being plagued by the dropsies at the end of games hurt us almost as bad as the kicking

 

[werdnamanhill]

9 games is not a realistic expectation, and neither is 2 or 3 wins. 9 is literally if everything goes right. 2 or even 3 would mean everything went wrong.

UNI - W very likely could be ugly, but we win.
Iowa - ? full blown toss up. We'll see if Cade is healthy but this game will be 50/50
@ Ohio - W their defense stinks and their offense couldn't muster up anything against us last year.
OSU - W this game is always close but we find a way at home.
@ OU - L not very likely we win a game in Norman with a good team let alone an average one.
TCU - W I think they caught lightning in a bottle last year and not having Duggan will show that.
@ Cincy - W new coach and essentially an entire new roster.
@ Baylor - L they'll be middle of the road in the Big 12 but will still be a tough out.
KU - W I think this will be a close one but home field wins out here.
@ BYU - L elevation plays a factor here plus in a tough environment.
vs. Texas - W Texas plays 8 straight games in the state of Texas before coming to Iowa in mid November. (they play 10/12 games total in Texas... how about that)
@ KSU - L Will be a tough game to win. It'll be close but senior night in Manhattan doesn't bode well for us.

6-6 or 7-6 depending on how the Iowa game goes. I also think the BYU and Cincy game could be flipped but we'll see.

I have a BYU win and a Texas loss. But very much agree overall with this.

I would be surprised if we are very far away from 6-6 in either direction

 

[Statefan10]

I have a BYU win and a Texas loss. But very much agree overall with this.

I would be surprised if we are very far away from 6-6 in either direction

Yup and it's obviously all fluid. Isn't that crazy about Texas though?? I just saw that. 10 of their 12 games are being played in their home state with their two being @ Alabama week 2 and then in Ames week 11.

 

[RagingCloner]

Yup and it's obviously all fluid. Isn't that crazy about Texas though?? I just saw that. 10 of their 12 games are being played in their home state with their two being @ Alabama week 2 and then in Ames week 11.

I have optimism about UT having to come here in November, especially if the CFP isnt in play for them anymore. They wont even want to be there

 

[Statefan10]

I agree that the 9 wins thing is out of the question. No part of my post was agreeing with the 9 wins being our reality this year. I just dont understand the thought process of acting like the world is ending and that we are just going to suck. You are using speculation to determine we will only win one game from the sounds of it, and I gave you factual information on how close we were to winning 6 last year. Here's another fun fact for you-the "best receiver in ISU history" being plagued by the dropsies at the end of games hurt us almost as bad as the kicking

Not to mention that our entire offense was predicated on getting him the ball, which, I know, worked sometimes and he was so good that he was open a lot. BUT, that also killed us with the fact that our QB just stared him down and if he wasn't open or didn't get open, the play was dead because HD couldn't scramble at all. With that being said, our OL was atrocious as the year went on and got absolutely exposed. If our OL is as bad as it was last year, there's essentially zero shot we make a bowl game.

 

[RagingCloner]

@ZRF Im curious what your prediction would be had nothing been changed this offseason. Assuming no coaching changes, no gambling, what would your prediction have been for the 2023 ISU football season?

 

[CycloneErik]

I agree that the 9 wins thing is out of the question. No part of my post was agreeing with the 9 wins being our reality this year. I just dont understand the thought process of acting like the world is ending and that we are just going to suck. You are using speculation to determine we will only win one game from the sounds of it, and I gave you factual information on how close we were to winning 6 last year. Here's another fun fact for you-the "best receiver in ISU history" being plagued by the dropsies at the end of games hurt us almost as bad as the kicking

Um, if you don't mind, it will always be too soon to talk about the kicking.

 

[RagingCloner]

Um, if you don't mind, it will always be too soon to talk about the kicking.

Man, thats my bad. Knew it as soon as i typed it. Apologies

 

[CycloneErik]

Man, thats my bad. Knew it as soon as i typed it. Apologies

Fair enough. We're none of us perfect.

 

[SleepyEyeCy]

The problem remains the same from last year: that team forgot how to win a game late/close. We need to see proof that this year's team understands how to win it themselves.

I think last year the coaches thought the offense was going to be pretty good and they let them play. This year I trust the coaching staff says, "we have an elite defense. Let's not do something on offense that loses the game."

It is really hard to lose games when your defense was as good as ISU's defense was last season. They held 7 opponents under 13 points. Ten opponents under 27. Just don't turn the ball over, win the turnover battle and make the what should be easy field goals. ISU will be fine.

 

[madguy30]

Christ how many games have we played over the years with Matt as our head coach where we are on paper better than the other team?? Lol not many. I think using that sort of logic is just as asinine as saying we're going to win 9 games. Using your thought process, we should be getting blown out by a majority of teams that we play. We were in every single game last year except for one, maybe two. Talented players leave ALL THE TIME. You probably said the same exact thing after Lazard and Montgomery left, and then probably after Kempt got hurt. Guess what? That's why you recruit and develop talent. So you can have guys step in and produce.

Iirc the poster you're quoting takes overanalyzing to a different level to create a scenario that should just 'happen' no matter what reality says.

The basketball season was a doozy.

 

[Statefan10]

Iirc the poster you're quoting takes overanalyzing to a different level to create a scenario that should just 'happen' no matter what reality says.

The basketball season was a doozy.

The funny thing is that even using ESPN's FPI data, it says we're going to win 5 games.. And those metrics could be off and are off every year for many many teams, but still.

 

[Drew0311]

• Sept. 2 – UNI- Win but Ugly win
• Sept. 9 – Iowa- Loss
• Sept. 16 – at Ohio- Win
• Sept. 23 – Oklahoma State Loss
• Sept. 30 – at Oklahoma Loss
• Oct. 7 – TCU (Jack Trice Legacy Game) Loss
• Oct. 14 – at Cincinnati Loss
• Oct. 28 – at Baylor Loss
• Nov. 4 – Kansas (Homecoming) Win
• Nov. 11 – at BYU Loss
• Nov. 18 – Texas Win
• Nov. 25 – at Kansas State Loss

4-8. I expect us to pull one upset. Ill give that to Texas.

 

[Statefan10]

• Sept. 2 – UNI- Win but Ugly win
• Sept. 9 – Iowa- Loss
• Sept. 16 – at Ohio- Win
• Sept. 23 – Oklahoma State Loss
• Sept. 30 – at Oklahoma Loss
• Oct. 7 – TCU (Jack Trice Legacy Game) Loss
• Oct. 14 – at Cincinnati Loss
• Oct. 28 – at Baylor Loss
• Nov. 4 – Kansas (Homecoming) Win
• Nov. 11 – at BYU Loss
• Nov. 18 – Texas Win
• Nov. 25 – at Kansas State Loss

4-8. I expect us to pull one upset. Ill give that to Texas.

I do have a question because I want to pick your brain here... Yesterday or the day before, you questioned others' takes/predictions on here when they believed we could win 6-7 games because "We lost every single one of our good players from last year and we also lost 5 starters on a team that only went 4-8."

So, how did you come up with us having the same exact record, playing a tougher schedule AND we don't even have our best players from last year plus we lost 5 other starters?

 

[Drew0311]

I do have a question because I want to pick your brain here... Yesterday or the day before, you questioned others' takes/predictions on here when they believed we could win 6-7 games because "We lost every single one of our good players from last year and we also lost 5 starters on a team that only went 4-8."

So, how did you come up with us having the same exact record, playing a tougher schedule AND we don't even have our best players from last year plus we lost 5 other starters?

Because there should be some chip shot wins in there like last year. UNI should be a win, Ohio should be a win, we usually pull out some game we are not supposed to win and I still think Kansas sucks and just got off to a hot start against crap teams last season. So that hopefully get's us to 4 wins. Although I think that is my best most optomistic view of the season. I could see us easily losing to UNI and I could see us winning 2 games. Just think we can possibly win a coupld more than 2.

 

[Statefan10]

Because there should be some chip shot wins in there like last year. UNI should be a win, Ohio should be a win, we usually pull out some game we are not supposed to win and I still think Kansas sucks and just got off to a hot start against crap teams last season. So that hopefully get's us to 4 wins. Although I think that is my best most optomistic view of the season. I could see us easily losing to UNI and I could see us winning 2 games. Just think we can possibly win a coupld more than 2.

Damn lol you think we're going to really suck. Welp, enjoy the ride! Hope you're not right!

 

[Drew0311]

Damn lol you think we're going to really suck. Welp, enjoy the ride! Hope you're not right!

Yeah I really do think we are going to not be good. Our defense might get us a couple wins. However, I just don't see us being that good. Way to young, Not enough experience at skill positions. New Quarterback. New Coaches calling plays. I think we might be pretty decent the following year, depending how this year plays out .

 

[Statefan10]

Yeah I really do think we are going to not be good. Our defense might get us a couple wins. However, I just don't see us being that good. Way to young, Not enough experience at skill positions. New Quarterback. New Coaches calling plays. I think we might be pretty decent the following year, depending how this year plays out .

Well I'm not going to try and change your opinion, nor would it matter anyway. Hope we have a solid team to root for this year!

 

[SleepyEyeCy]

9 games is not a realistic expectation, and neither is 2 or 3 wins. 9 is literally if everything goes right. 2 or even 3 would mean everything went wrong.

UNI - W very likely could be ugly, but we win.
Iowa - ? full blown toss up. We'll see if Cade is healthy but this game will be 50/50
@ Ohio - W their defense stinks and their offense couldn't muster up anything against us last year.
OSU - W this game is always close but we find a way at home.
@ OU - L not very likely we win a game in Norman with a good team let alone an average one.
TCU - W I think they caught lightning in a bottle last year and not having Duggan will show that.
@ Cincy - W new coach and essentially an entire new roster.
@ Baylor - L they'll be middle of the road in the Big 12 but will still be a tough out.
KU - W I think this will be a close one but home field wins out here.
@ BYU - L elevation plays a factor here plus in a tough environment.
vs. Texas - W Texas plays 8 straight games in the state of Texas before coming to Iowa in mid November. (they play 10/12 games total in Texas... how about that)
@ KSU - L Will be a tough game to win. It'll be close but senior night in Manhattan doesn't bode well for us.

6-6 or 7-6 depending on how the Iowa game goes. I also think the BYU and Cincy game could be flipped but we'll see.

I have ISU winning all home games. Then winning at Ohio, Cincinnati and BYU. ISU loses at Baylor, Oklahoma and K-State.

I am not saying ISU blows everyone out. I have confidence this staff will manage the game better than last year. Have you looked at team stats other than W-L? ISU was easily better in every

9 games is not a realistic expectation, and neither is 2 or 3 wins. 9 is literally if everything goes right. 2 or even 3 would mean everything went wrong.

UNI - W very likely could be ugly, but we win.
Iowa - ? full blown toss up. We'll see if Cade is healthy but this game will be 50/50
@ Ohio - W their defense stinks and their offense couldn't muster up anything against us last year.
OSU - W this game is always close but we find a way at home.
@ OU - L not very likely we win a game in Norman with a good team let alone an average one.
TCU - W I think they caught lightning in a bottle last year and not having Duggan will show that.
@ Cincy - W new coach and essentially an entire new roster.
@ Baylor - L they'll be middle of the road in the Big 12 but will still be a tough out.
KU - W I think this will be a close one but home field wins out here.
@ BYU - L elevation plays a factor here plus in a tough environment.
vs. Texas - W Texas plays 8 straight games in the state of Texas before coming to Iowa in mid November. (they play 10/12 games total in Texas... how about that)
@ KSU - L Will be a tough game to win. It'll be close but senior night in Manhattan doesn't bode well for us.

6-6 or 7-6 depending on how the Iowa game goes. I also think the BYU and Cincy game could be flipped but we'll see.

9 games is not a realistic expectation, and neither is 2 or 3 wins. 9 is literally if everything goes right. 2 or even 3 would mean everything went wrong.

UNI - W very likely could be ugly, but we win.
Iowa - ? full blown toss up. We'll see if Cade is healthy but this game will be 50/50
@ Ohio - W their defense stinks and their offense couldn't muster up anything against us last year.
OSU - W this game is always close but we find a way at home.
@ OU - L not very likely we win a game in Norman with a good team let alone an average one.
TCU - W I think they caught lightning in a bottle last year and not having Duggan will show that.
@ Cincy - W new coach and essentially an entire new roster.
@ Baylor - L they'll be middle of the road in the Big 12 but will still be a tough out.
KU - W I think this will be a close one but home field wins out here.
@ BYU - L elevation plays a factor here plus in a tough environment.
vs. Texas - W Texas plays 8 straight games in the state of Texas before coming to Iowa in mid November. (they play 10/12 games total in Texas... how about that)
@ KSU - L Will be a tough game to win. It'll be close but senior night in Manhattan doesn't bode well for us.

6-6 or 7-6 depending on how the Iowa game goes. I also think the BYU and Cincy game could be flipped but we'll see.

If ISU wins the three games you mentioned, Iowa, Cincinnati and BYU that's the 9 win season.

Looking at last year's stats ISU was even or dominated ever category except interceptions. If I remember correctly ISU had a -8 interception for the season. ISU also had 7 fumbles but those are two of the easiest fixes in football by just "managing" the game better and making better decisions with the football.