REALISTIC expectations for 2023 football season

[Malty Flannel]

I

Am a little more optimistic. Elite defense, ball control offense and make field goals inside 45 yards should get ISU to 9 wins. The defense held 7 teams under 13'points last year and 10 at 27 or under. I think ISU goes undefeated at home and pick up road wins at Ohio, Cincinnati and BYU.

I'm not gonna convince myself there's 9 wins on this schedule, but I agree with the basic premise. Transfer kicker sounds promising. I think both QB's are smarter than Dekkers and will hopefully limit stupid turnovers. Defense about the same as last year. Offensive line marginally better. TE's more involved should help keep offense moving. I think 7 wins is a realistic hope and 6 is a really fair expectation. The defense will keep ISU in every game.

Beer me the scenario where Becht comes out looking like freshman Purdy vs OSU and ends up being the next Baker Mayfield. Then we win 9 this year.

 

[BigJCy]

Ol' Stewey Mandel has us going 5-7, 3-6 in Conference:

Big 12

Kansas State	7-2	9-3
Texas	7-2	9-3
Oklahoma	6-3	9-3
TCU	6-3	9-3
Texas Tech	6-3	9-3
Oklahoma State	5-4	8-4
Kansas	5-4	8-4
Baylor	5-4	8-4
UCF	5-4	7-5
Iowa State	3-6	5-7
BYU	2-7	4-8
Houston	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	2-7	4-8
Cincinnati	2-7	4-8

Championship game​

Kansas State over Texas

Stewart Mandel’s Big 12 predictions: Can the Cats repeat? Is it (finally) time for Texas?

With so much in flux, it might be wise to put your trust in the league’s most proven coaches.

theathletic.com

 

[RagingCloner]

Ol' Stewey Mandel has us going 5-7, 3-6 in Conference:

Big 12

Kansas State	7-2	9-3
Texas	7-2	9-3
Oklahoma	6-3	9-3
TCU	6-3	9-3
Texas Tech	6-3	9-3
Oklahoma State	5-4	8-4
Kansas	5-4	8-4
Baylor	5-4	8-4
UCF	5-4	7-5
Iowa State	3-6	5-7
BYU	2-7	4-8
Houston	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	2-7	4-8
Cincinnati	2-7	4-8

Championship game​

Kansas State over Texas

Stewart Mandel’s Big 12 predictions: Can the Cats repeat? Is it (finally) time for Texas?

With so much in flux, it might be wise to put your trust in the league’s most proven coaches.

theathletic.com

KU going 8-4? lol Stewie continues to show how he knows nothing about the B12

 

[ZRF]

I

Am a little more optimistic. Elite defense, ball control offense and make field goals inside 45 yards should get ISU to 9 wins. The defense held 7 teams under 13'points last year and 10 at 27 or under. I think ISU goes undefeated at home and pick up road wins at Ohio, Cincinnati and BYU.

This is preposterous. Questions up front on both sides of the ball. A lack of proven options at both receiver and running back (Norton's health and Brock off the team). Our two best options have QB have basically zero experience. There is nothing to suggest this team is capable, let alone likely ("should get"), to achieve 9 wins.

That's probably the ceiling if EVERYTHING goes right. Nine wins IF Clanton fixes the line, Nate retools a completely inept offensive design, receivers step up, a freshman QB lights the world on fire, the D line holds its own after losing one of the best players in ISU history, the LBs (least talented positional group) step up, the secondary stays healthy, and the STs aren't a complete joke (both in kicking and coverage). The odds of all of these things happening concurrently are VERY small.

Worst case this is a 2-3 win team, realistically it's a 4-5 win team, and realistic best case is maybe 7 wins. Predicting 9 wins for this team is one of the more outlandishly preposterous things I've seen on this board. It's a (crack) pipe dream.

 

[ZRF]

KU going 8-4? lol Stewie continues to show how he knows nothing about the B12

The overall record is irrelevant in the prediction. Why? KUs noncon is Mizzou St, Illinois, and Nevada...all at home and likely wins. That means you have to have a problem with the conference wins and KU gets BYU, UCF, KSU, OU, and Tech at home and us, Cinci, OSU, and Texas on the road. I can easily see them going 3-2 (most likely BYU, Tech, and UCF) at home and 2-2 (us and Cinci) on the road.

Not saying it will happen but it's not far-fetched and more likely than 50% or more of the predictions I've seen for us in this thread.

 

[RagingCloner]

This is preposterous. Questions up front on both sides of the ball. A lack of proven options at both receiver and running back (Norton's health and Brock off the team). Our two best options have QB have basically zero experience. There is nothing to suggest this team is capable, let alone likely ("should get"), to achieve 9 wins.

That's probably the ceiling if EVERYTHING goes right. Nine wins IF Clanton fixes the line, Nate retools a completely inept offensive design, receivers step up, a freshman QB lights the world on fire, the D line holds its own after losing one of the best players in ISU history, the LBs (least talented positional group) step up, the secondary stays healthy, and the STs aren't a complete joke (both in kicking and coverage). The odds of all of these things happening concurrently are VERY small.

Worst case this is a 2-3 win team, realistically it's a 4-5 win team, and realistic best case is maybe 7 wins. Predicting 9 wins for this team is one of the more outlandishly preposterous things I've seen on this board. It's a (crack) pipe dream.

The overall record is irrelevant in the prediction. Why? KUs noncon is Mizzou St, Illinois, and Nevada...all at home and likely wins. That means you have to have a problem with the conference wins and KU gets BYU, UCF, KSU, OU, and Tech at home and us, Cinci, OSU, and Texas on the road. I can easily see them going 3-2 (most likely BYU, Tech, and UCF) at home and 2-2 (us and Cinci) on the road.

Not saying it will happen but it's not far-fetched and more likely than 50% or more of the predictions I've seen for us in this thread.

9 wins is more realistic with this team than 2 or 3 wins. Do people just forget as bad as we were last year we were 10 points away from 7 wins? Our special teams were horrendous, the offense was abysmal, and our defense was elite. The gambling nonsense sucked, but great news, we have a new QB. Losing Brock was unfortunate, but even if our OL is just as bad as it was last year, you only need 445 rushing yards to match his production.

You cant say its not far fetched and then say you think KU beats Tech in the same post, and then state that they will beat us at home. Remember the 10 points we needed last year, KU was 4 of them. And again, we were bad last year.

I do not understand the blind pessimism here.

 

[CycloneErik]

9 wins is more realistic with this team than 2 or 3 wins. Do people just forget as bad as we were last year we were 10 points away from 7 wins? Our special teams were horrendous, the offense was abysmal, and our defense was elite. The gambling nonsense sucked, but great news, we have a new QB. Losing Brock was unfortunate, but even if our OL is just as bad as it was last year, you only need 445 rushing yards to match his production.

You cant say its not far fetched and then say you think KU beats Tech in the same post, and then state that they will beat us at home. Remember the 10 points we needed last year, KU was 4 of them. And again, we were bad last year.

I do not understand the blind pessimism here.

Hopefully, you're right, but you can't fire off "9 is more likely than 2-3" and describe someone else as blind. At ISU, 2-3 is almost always more likely than 9.

 

[werdnamanhill]

IMO:
4 is a disappointment.
5 is begrudging acceptance.
6 is expected.
7 is overachievement
8+ is unlikely

 

[RagingCloner]

Hopefully, you're right, but you can't fire off "9 is more likely than 2-3" and describe someone else as blind. At ISU, 2-3 is almost always more likely than 9.

Fair point there. I just see us overachieving more than underachieving this year, and as you say, maybe that is just blind optimism on my part. FWIW i am putting our total at 6. If we go 3-0 in noncon, then i think we push 7

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

6 or 7 wins. Could be more. I think this team is gonna come out with a bit of juice. Clanton's mindset is addicting and the most fun to play for IMO.

He reminds me of my old crusty high school line coach. Our HC would be going over details on the white board on the sidelines for in game adjustments. My line coach would be all huffing and puffing behind him just waiting for any moment to get his pissed off comments in... "You're getting your ass kicked out there!!! Have some dignity!"

Lol we played hard for him though.

 

[cyclones500]

IMO:
4 is a disappointment.
5 is begrudging acceptance.
6 is expected.
7 is overachievement
8+ is unlikely

Is that in a general/historic sense, not necessarily specific to this season?

 

[RagingCloner]

Is that in a general/historic sense, not necessarily specific to this season?

Has to be for just this season. With this new look B12, i dont see a reason that 8-9 wins cant be the goal for us every year

 

[werdnamanhill]

Is that in a general/historic sense, not necessarily specific to this season?

This season

 

[SleepyEyeCy]

This is preposterous. Questions up front on both sides of the ball. A lack of proven options at both receiver and running back (Norton's health and Brock off the team). Our two best options have QB have basically zero experience. There is nothing to suggest this team is capable, let alone likely ("should get"), to achieve 9 wins.

That's probably the ceiling if EVERYTHING goes right. Nine wins IF Clanton fixes the line, Nate retools a completely inept offensive design, receivers step up, a freshman QB lights the world on fire, the D line holds its own after losing one of the best players in ISU history, the LBs (least talented positional group) step up, the secondary stays healthy, and the STs aren't a complete joke (both in kicking and coverage). The odds of all of these things happening concurrently are VERY small.

Worst case this is a 2-3 win team, realistically it's a 4-5 win team, and realistic best case is maybe 7 wins. Predicting 9 wins for this team is one of the more outlandishly preposterous things I've seen on this board. It's a (crack) pipe dream.

Top defense in the league. One of the top in the nation. Lower your offensive expirations and game plan ball control, not turning it over, punt and win games scoring 24 points. I think last season Iowa state would have won 7 or maybe 8 games scoring 24 points. Make the other team go 80 yards every drive.

Become K-State or Iowa. I wouldn't be opposed to starting Hughes at qb (2 years juco experience without turning the ball over) and employing the K-State game plan of Collin Klein 2011-2012. Klein by the way finished 3rd in the Heisman voting.

 

[madguy30]

Is that in a general/historic sense, not necessarily specific to this season?

I'd say both.

 

[CoachHines3]

Ol' Stewey Mandel has us going 5-7, 3-6 in Conference:

Big 12

Kansas State	7-2	9-3
Texas	7-2	9-3
Oklahoma	6-3	9-3
TCU	6-3	9-3
Texas Tech	6-3	9-3
Oklahoma State	5-4	8-4
Kansas	5-4	8-4
Baylor	5-4	8-4
UCF	5-4	7-5
Iowa State	3-6	5-7
BYU	2-7	4-8
Houston	2-7	4-8
West Virginia	2-7	4-8
Cincinnati	2-7	4-8

Championship game​

Kansas State over Texas

Stewart Mandel’s Big 12 predictions: Can the Cats repeat? Is it (finally) time for Texas?

With so much in flux, it might be wise to put your trust in the league’s most proven coaches.

theathletic.com

im fine with that

id probably put KU at 7-5, though

 

[MeowingCows]

9 wins is more realistic with this team than 2 or 3 wins. Do people just forget as bad as we were last year we were 10 points away from 7 wins? Our special teams were horrendous, the offense was abysmal, and our defense was elite. The gambling nonsense sucked, but great news, we have a new QB. Losing Brock was unfortunate, but even if our OL is just as bad as it was last year, you only need 445 rushing yards to match his production.

You cant say its not far fetched and then say you think KU beats Tech in the same post, and then state that they will beat us at home. Remember the 10 points we needed last year, KU was 4 of them. And again, we were bad last year.

I do not understand the blind pessimism here.

The problem remains the same from last year: that team forgot how to win a game late/close. We need to see proof that this year's team understands how to win it themselves.

 

[ZRF]

9 wins is more realistic with this team than 2 or 3 wins. Do people just forget as bad as we were last year we were 10 points away from 7 wins? Our special teams were horrendous, the offense was abysmal, and our defense was elite. The gambling nonsense sucked, but great news, we have a new QB. Losing Brock was unfortunate, but even if our OL is just as bad as it was last year, you only need 445 rushing yards to match his production.

You cant say its not far fetched and then say you think KU beats Tech in the same post, and then state that they will beat us at home. Remember the 10 points we needed last year, KU was 4 of them. And again, we were bad last year.

I do not understand the blind pessimism here.

How in the world do you figure that?

We had a QB that came into the year with more experience (practice reps) than either of our two options this year. We had the best receiver in school history and the best pass rusher in school history. Despite all of that we mustered ONE conference win. The amazing thing is we actually beat Iowa, a usual loss no matter how much better we look than them on the field.

I count ONE surefire win on the schedule and that's Ohio. We should beat UNI, as we should every year, but that's always a nightmare game. On paper Iowa is better than us. OSU, OU, TCU, Texas, and TCU are all worlds better than us on paper. Baylor is better, and although we are competitive (if not better on paper) than Cinci and BYU we play them on the road, with both being unknown environments and one in altitude (which we are not used to playing in). KU at home is a very winnable game but hardly a given.

"Blind pessimism"? More like unrealistic optimism by a shockingly large amount of our fan base. Our offensive line is ALWAYS a problem (until it's proven it's not) as is our special teams (diddo). Elsewhere we simply have too many questions and too many holes until the team proves otherwise. Not sure I've ever seen so many positive prognostications when reality indicates otherwise. A bad team + a tougher league - two of your best players (regardless of position) in history - 4 starters due to gambling issues + many a question = 9 ******* wins???? Not sure there's enough alcohol in the world to make that projection look possible, let alone likely.

 

[ZRF]

Hopefully, you're right, but you can't fire off "9 is more likely than 2-3" and describe someone else as blind. At ISU, 2-3 is almost always more likely than 9.

Especially when they give porous or non-specific reasons for the prognostication while ignoring the teams on our schedule. Realistically look at the schedule and say, confidently, who are we better than? Ohio is a given and UNI should be (though its always tougher than it should be). I think we may be better than, or at least equal to Cinci, BYU, and KU but those first two are on the road (always tougher games) and KU is hardly a given. KSU, Texas, OU, OSU, Tech, Baylor and Iowa are all better than us on paper, with at least half of those better by a mile. Where are those 9 wins and someone tell me why or how we should expect to win those games?

I think we beat Ohio, UNI, KU and upset 1 team that's better than us. I don't think we win at BYU (tough environment and altitude) but maybe eek one out in Cinci. That's 4-5 wins but wouldn't be shocked if we only beat the first three. Everything goes right? We beat the first 3, Iowa at home, 1 of the Cinci/BYU road games, and upset someone that's better than us at home (TCU or OSU). What is that? Six wins? Anything more is a probably a combination of great coaching by Clanton, Nate (our offense has the most upside of any unit on the team simply because of how it was ran...if changed I think we will be much more competent), the STs not being *******, and some overachievement.

I hope the latter happens. But the brain (resoundingly) says no.

 

[Statefan10]

9 games is not a realistic expectation, and neither is 2 or 3 wins. 9 is literally if everything goes right. 2 or even 3 would mean everything went wrong.

UNI - W very likely could be ugly, but we win.
Iowa - ? full blown toss up. We'll see if Cade is healthy but this game will be 50/50
@ Ohio - W their defense stinks and their offense couldn't muster up anything against us last year.
OSU - W this game is always close but we find a way at home.
@ OU - L not very likely we win a game in Norman with a good team let alone an average one.
TCU - W I think they caught lightning in a bottle last year and not having Duggan will show that.
@ Cincy - W new coach and essentially an entire new roster.
@ Baylor - L they'll be middle of the road in the Big 12 but will still be a tough out.
KU - W I think this will be a close one but home field wins out here.
@ BYU - L elevation plays a factor here plus in a tough environment.
vs. Texas - W Texas plays 8 straight games in the state of Texas before coming to Iowa in mid November. (they play 10/12 games total in Texas... how about that)
@ KSU - L Will be a tough game to win. It'll be close but senior night in Manhattan doesn't bode well for us.

6-6 or 7-5 depending on how the Iowa game goes. I also think the BYU and Cincy game could be flipped but we'll see.