He is supposed to be worth $30+ billion. I would be shocked if his estate plan doesn't include plenty of money for an endowment fund with a billion or two to keep the Oregon athletics near the top of the revenue pile for all of college sports long after he is gone.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
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He is supposed to be worth $30+ billion. I would be shocked if his estate plan doesn't include plenty of money for an endowment fund with a billion or two to keep the Oregon athletics near the top of the revenue pile for all of college sports long after he is gone.
Setting up a $2B endowment probably generates $70-80 per year in perpetuity.
So what, they are going to do it anyway. The talking heads are going to talk about the SEC and B10, wonder why the huge markets in the P12 are going down, and badmouth the B12 every chance they get. They are trying to get clinks, and that is a proven way to do so.
In reality it means nothing at all.
And all the while ASU receives around $25 million less per year? Doesn't sound like a very good theory for ASU.
We don’t know the dollar amount yet, so part of this ASU theory is a hope that the gap will be much smaller than that.
Dennis Dodd tweeted that he anticipates each of the Big 12 teams will receive around $50 million in all-in payout under the new contract and the Pac's new deal is anticipated to pay out around $25 million per team (if that).
ASU can hold onto their pride and refuse to join the Big 12, but it's gonna cost them around $25 million per year.
Just playing Devil’s advocate, that $50M number is inclusive of playoff money, NCAA Tourney money, etc., not just TV dollars. Those other revenue generators aren’t unique to the Big 12, so the P12 would see that money too. So IF (a big if) the P12 can pull a $25M/team tv deal, they won’t be $25M behind the Big 12. They’d be ~$6M behind.
I can play the reverse devil's advocate. Many think the Pac's payout will end up around $20 million rather than $25 million. In addition, many feel that UO and UW will force unequal revenue distribution, meaning ASU won't get their normal fair share.
Yes, I agree with this. At that point, they would be $10-$15M behind at that point, which is probably beyond their tolerance to stay in the P12.
Aren’t those two different numbers? The $50MM is all in with television, bowl games, March Madness, etc. The Big 12’s new TV deal is worth 31MM. More than 25, but not double.
Academic snobs could decide $6MM is not enough to leave Stanford and pretend their school is as good.
Yea, the Washington State President letter on financial issues with there Athletic Department probably hit home for a lot of Pac12 Presidents.
A lot of these schools are like ISU where they have around $100M in debt service. I am sure most colleges will start their budgeting for Fiscal 2024/25 in the next few months. Having solid revenue estimates is a good place to start!
The 50m includes bowls, championship game, NCAA tournament, so it's not quite as bad as $25M for the PAC12
Pac 12 will not get many CFP spots in the future. Less money. Lower payments than Big 12 in other payments as well.
My guess is <$5M they stay put.
>$10M they bail on P12.
In between 5 and 10... will depend on the individual school and leaders.
IMO ASU and UU both are holding out for Big10 invites. Even if it is a 10% chance.
ASU being awarded AAU status last week gave them another reason to slow play realignment.
I feel like Jason Scheer's tweet reinforces that UA & ASU have different views where they stand in the realignment pecking order.
The SEC and Sankey have been Uber quiet during all the realignment talk over the last year. If Big12 and Big10 are looking to expand time zone reach, at some point the SEC could too. With UT, OU, A&M, Mizzou and Ark in SEC- spreading it's reach into Southwest might make a lot of sense. Heck, even reaching north for KU or ISU might be a flanking move on Big10 in a decade.
The key is Pac12 keeping it's P5 inclusion. Each school in a conference receives a payment. That is the $22M I reference.
Under the current payout formula, the 4 playoff teams also earn their conferences around $5-7M.
That's a big reason why Big12 added 4 and Pac12 keeps talking about SDSU and SMU. The monies are school specific, but paid to the conference as part of the GOR.
I agree with your assessment of the raw numbers that would drive each school's decision. But the other big factors are (a) length of GOR, and (b) equal revenue sharing. If CU and UA see Oregon/UW insisting on a 5 year GOR or bringing up unequal revenue sharing then CU and UA should know it might be better to get out now.
Unequal revenue is the #1 problem. UO and UW will likely DEMAND a bigger share, esp if signing a GOR of any length. Because the number will prob be below their desired number without unequal shares. And they certainly have the leverage to say they will leave for the B12, even if they dont want to.
BUT
unequal shares will likely push the differential for the 2nd tier teams like CU and UA to the point where the differential w B12 is unacceptable.
This is the circle they have to square.
