Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[isucy86]

They aren't just matching each other just to match. They make these deals when it makes financial sense, not just getting larger for the sake of getting larger. No department wants to take lower revenue for the sake of size.

There's no current big 12 school that is going to be financially additive to the current big 10\SEC. Its debatable if there's one in the PAC at this point as Oregon\Washington may not be at that level even.

Agree, but there is a long game to realignment. OR/WA wouldn't be among the Big10's top 5 media values (OSU, UM, USC, PSU, Wisky), but they would be right after the top 5. So not additive to the current Big10 TV deal- but more valuable than over half the current Big10 schools.

The other angle could be structuring the 12 team CFP. A couple more high-end schools might be valuable depending how payouts are structured for conferences and potentially the 12 invited schools. It's crazy to comprehend- the 11 playoff games could earn college football $2B annually, more than the combined annual value of the Big10 & SEC media rights deals.

If the Big10 can add OR/WA for somewhere between the Big10 & Pac12 (if they get one) media deals, seems like a no brainer for the Big10 to add a couple solid brands now, so there is a track record prior to their next TV deal around 2030. Especially, if streaming is the wildcard in future TV rights negotiations.

 

[SolarGarlic]

That's why Campbell and to a lesser extent TJ have such critical jobs and ISU needs to make smart investments in FB &MBB over the next decade.

If ISU is a perennial top 25 football team and we grow attendance to 75k, I think we offer the SEC an attractive counter to the Big10's Hawk & Husker presence in the upper Midwest.

We'd have to win the Big 12 3 or 4 times to get to 75k. That ain't happening. We're still fighting 40 years of Hayden Hawk brainwashing.

 

[isucy86]

We'd have to win the Big 12 3 or 4 times to get to 75k. That ain't happening. We're still fighting 40 years of Hayden Hawk brainwashing.

How does what happens in Iowa City impact ISU's upside? We share very few fans. If a state like Alabama can have Alabama & Auburn, no reason Iowa can't have ISU & Iowa.

 

[JM4CY]

How does what happens in Iowa City impact ISU's upside? We share very few fans. If a state like Alabama can have Alabama & Auburn, no reason Iowa can't have ISU & Iowa.

Alabama as almost 2 million more people than Iowa.

 

[jctisu]

Alabama as almost 2 million more people than Iowa.

Not to mention comparing Iowa and Iowa State to Alabama and Auburn in football is laughable. Neither of the Iowa schools are anywhere remotely close to the brand and football power Bama is. And neither are really close to Auburn either. Auburn does have a recent national title and played for another plus had that undefeated season back in ‘03 (I believe) where they didn’t get to play for the title.

 

[isucy86]

Id also estimate that Iowa or Nebbie have at least 3x the fanbase size as us. When I lived in NC I'd see tigerhawks and Ns semi-regularly, and hardly ever saw any ISU gear.

It's all anecdotal I know, but from living outside of Iowa, I think a lot of posters on here have a very inflated view of our brand compared to Iowa

That's why I didn't say in 2023, 2024 or even 2030.

A decade of winning would bring a lot of visibility and respect for ISU football. What I am describing is a CFB set-up where the Big10 & SEC are both 24 team conferences. To say that ISU can't develop into a top 48 media rights value school by the time the ACC GOR expires is pretty limiting.

How much of a brand do you think Iowa would have if when Ferentz retires they have a stretch of football teams like they did in 1960's/70's. Even Nebraska football is at a tipping point. If Ruhle can't win, they fall back a further tier. Right now the Nebraska brand is the NASCAR of college football- other school's fans love to watch them lose. That appeal is fleeting.

 

[HouClone]

Agree. OR has been consistently better in football for quite awhile, but UW has a larger enrollment, alumni base, TV market and better academics.

I could be wrong but thought I saw Oregon is low on research numbers, way below us, even taken out the USDA. If true, how we got kicked out of the AAU instead of Oregon is beyond me. And it came out of nowhere, no leaks. Perhaps the Big 10 doesn't want a Nebraska repeat and won't invite Oregon knowing they could be next. The AAU just invited a heck of a lot of schools, can't get too bloated.

If Oregon doesn't get invited due to possible AAU concerns, could that affect Washington? They are in the far corner of the US and would be travel partners.

 

[aeroclone]

Id also estimate that Iowa or Nebbie have at least 3x the fanbase size as us. When I lived in NC I'd see tigerhawks and Ns semi-regularly, and hardly ever saw any ISU gear.

It's all anecdotal I know, but from living outside of Iowa, I think a lot of posters on here have a very inflated view of our brand compared to Iowa

Yeah, living outside the state is really eye opening in this regard. I run into people frequently confuse us with iowa or even think we are the same school. And this is in KC, a big college sports town 4 hours from campus in the heart of Big 8/12 country. I can only imagine how bad it is in further reaches of the country.

 

[RustShack]

Yeah, living outside the state is really eye opening in this regard. I run into people frequently confuse us with iowa or even think we are the same school. And this is in KC, a big college sports town 4 hours from campus in the heart of Big 8/12 country. I can only imagine how bad it is in further reaches of the country.

I live in KC and have literally never had that happen other than with one person at work, and she doesn’t watch any sports.

 

[Clonefan94]

Yeah, living outside the state is really eye opening in this regard. I run into people frequently confuse us with iowa or even think we are the same school. And this is in KC, a big college sports town 4 hours from campus in the heart of Big 8/12 country. I can only imagine how bad it is in further reaches of the country.

We certainly are in the minority, but our brand is growing. I went to the White Sox game today with my daughter, I wore one of my ISU hats as I don’t have a Sox hat. I was stopped twice in the concourse with “Go State!” Then when walking up to get a beer in the seventh, a guy from the section over started yelling “Go State!” As I walked by. I’m not delusional, I know here in Illinois, Iowa is Illinois Lite, but this didn’t happen 10 years ago.

And for the record, this is what my daughter asked for for her birthday present. I’m not even that much of a baseball fan anymore, but it’s fun to see.

 

[clonehome]

Id also estimate that Iowa or Nebbie have at least 3x the fanbase size as us. When I lived in NC I'd see tigerhawks and Ns semi-regularly, and hardly ever saw any ISU gear.

It's all anecdotal I know, but from living outside of Iowa, I think a lot of posters on here have a very inflated view of our brand compared to Iowa

I agree with this but I would add that Iowa is one down stretch in football away from having a similar brand as ISU. Say Kirk fades to end his tenure and his replacement struggles such that Iowa has 5 or 6 losing seasons in a row like Nebbie’s current stretch. At that point Iowa’s brand from a national perspective is shot and they are indiscernible from ISU, Minnesota, Illinois or Purdue. That type of stretch is entirely possible and indicates the house of cards that the Iowa program is. Fits with their “fake ID of college football” moniker.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I would prefer to have the Big 12 pick the low hanging fruit but keep the PAC 12 intact as much as possible. Would the PAC 12 fold if Colorado and Arizona bolted?

One would think very little really, the P12 is a dead man walking, and those schools have to sense that also. They have already lost USC and UCLA, their other two headliner programs are just waiting for an invite from the B10. Oregon and Washington are playing nice now, but neither will sign a long-term grant of rights agreement. This whole thing is far from played out, and the SEC and B10 is just waiting for the ACC schools to get close to getting out of their GOR, and then it hits the fan.
The B12 can be patient, knowing that most of the schools are not going to get chosen by either the B10 or SEC, the problem for some of those schools in the P12, is if they wait around too long, schools like Pitt, Louisville and others will be fighting for those same slots in the B12.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I agree with this but I would add that Iowa is one down stretch in football away from having a similar brand as ISU. Say Kirk fades to end his tenure and his replacement struggles such that Iowa has 5 or 6 losing seasons in a row like Nebbie’s current stretch. At that point Iowa’s brand from a national perspective is shot and they are indiscernible from ISU, Minnesota, Illinois or Purdue. That type of stretch is entirely possible and indicates the house of cards that the Iowa program is. Fits with their “fake ID of college football” moniker.

Frreerents is not getting any younger, and with the B10 doing away with division after this season, the pillow soft schedules that he has enjoyed will be gone. I tend to think that Freerents is hoping to get enough wins to finish in the top 2 in conference wins all time and wants to get his winning percentage above 600% for a career to make him eligible for the football HOF. He has to realize his son is never going to be the next coach at EIU, so one does have to wonder how much longer he is going to want to coach when the AD that protected him is gone, and schedule is going to get a lot tougher a year from now, relative to what he has had for the past 15 years.

 

[alarson]

I would prefer to have the Big 12 pick the low hanging fruit but keep the PAC 12 intact as much as possible. Would the PAC 12 fold if Colorado and Arizona bolted?

I think this depends what you mean by fold.

If those 2 leave it may spark a few more to bolt, yes.

But even if they do, the pac 12 probably still exists.

A Pac12 Remnants+best of the MWC would probably make more than the MWC absorbing the PAC remnants. Doing it this way, adding the best MWC teams into the new PAC would drop the lowest performing MWC brands.

 

[HouClone]

I run into Clone fans occasionally in Houston, more often these days. For the rest, you still get the "Hawkeyes?" during conversations about Iowa State.

 

[Cyclone Pfan]

That's why Campbell and to a lesser extent TJ have such critical jobs and ISU needs to make smart investments in FB &MBB over the next decade.

If ISU is a perennial top 25 football team and we grow attendance to 75k, I think we offer the SEC an attractive counter to the Big10's Hawk & Husker presence in the upper Midwest.

I don't know what the SEC values (besides money and pretentious media heads), but if there is ever a desire to compete directly with the Big10 footprint there are limited Midwest options...

Iowa - Iowa State
Penn State - Pitt
Oklahoma State - Oklahoma
Kansas - Kansas State

(I believe it's a highly unlikely scenario that ISU would ever be considered for SEC unless they grow beyond 20 teams)

 

[Cloneon]

We certainly are in the minority, but our brand is growing. I went to the White Sox game today with my daughter, I wore one of my ISU hats as I don’t have a Sox hat. I was stopped twice in the concourse with “Go State!” Then when walking up to get a beer in the seventh, a guy from the section over started yelling “Go State!” As I walked by. I’m not delusional, I know here in Illinois, Iowa is Illinois Lite, but this didn’t happen 10 years ago.

And for the record, this is what my daughter asked for for her birthday present. I’m not even that much of a baseball fan anymore, but it’s fun to see.

We're everywhere. We just tend to be more concealed. I, however, will never forget Johnny taking our team to the Rosemont Horizon WAY back. The next day the Tribune reported, though the Illini were the official 'home' team, that wasn't the case by attendance. It was one of my most proud moments as a Cyclone despite losing. Per Johnny, "You know I can't comment on the refs, but I asked my wife and she said they sucked".
Winning does two things: it reminds alumnus to reveal themselves and it garners non-alumni as fans. There isn't that much disparity in actual alumni numbers between Universities of same age, so the viewership growth needs to come from the outside.

 

[dafarmer]

Yeah, living outside the state is really eye opening in this regard. I run into people frequently confuse us with iowa or even think we are the same school. And this is in KC, a big college sports town 4 hours from campus in the heart of Big 8/12 country. I can only imagine how bad it is in further reaches of the country.

I am not saying people in Kansas are a little bit slow, but……

 

[clonedude]

Can anyone explain to me why the Big 12 has to expand? Why can't we just let OU and Texas leave, add the other 4, and just stay at 12? Is that not sustainable?

I just look at how the B1G has become a much worse product over the years by adding too many teams. Iowa fans get to see Iowa play tOSU like once every 6 years now or something ridiculous like that. Just dumb.

I guess I can see why the Big 12 would add someone like Oregon, it would definitely add clout and likely per team payouts as well.... but adding UConn (for both football and basketball) seems just beyond stupid. The UConn MBB and WBB don't add enough most likely to increase per team payouts, right? UConn football provides nothing.

I guess I just don't see adding teams just to add teams.

 

[KnappShack]

Can anyone explain to me why the Big 12 has to expand? Why can't we just let OU and Texas leave, add the other 4, and just stay at 12? Is that not sustainable?

I just look at how the B1G has become a much worse product over the years by adding too many teams. Iowa fans get to see Iowa play tOSU like once every 6 years now or something ridiculous like that. Just dumb.

I guess I can see why the Big 12 would add someone like Oregon, it would definitely add clout and likely per team payouts as well.... but adding UConn (for both football and basketball) seems just beyond stupid. The UConn MBB and WBB don't add enough most likely to increase per team payouts, right? UConn football provides nothing.

I guess I just don't see adding teams just to add teams.

Money and stability

The actual product on the field and fan experience means nothing.

Straight cash, homie