Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[2speedy1]

Would they even really need to bribe the schools that have big 12 landing spots as well? If anything I would think their price is drastically reduced. Those schools like Louisville, Pitt, etc would stand to make more money in the big 12 than the sunsetting ACC media deal.

All they really need is 51% of the league to have a better deal elsewhere and vote to dissolve.

Put it this way.. do you think Louisville and Pitt would be happy to let Clemson go get an $80M payday while they get a 32M one? Just because they have a landing spot doesnt mean they are going to be happy how the other schools went about it, and made bank while they were left behind. Let alone a school like BC that probably dont have a spot. There would be several lawsuits in play.

 

[keepngoal]

Once humbled, then they hopefully become more humble themselves.

Look, you seem to think humility and empathy are synonymous. While they are both desirable traits, they are not the same thing. To want someone who is arrogant to experience some humility in order that they themselves might become less arrogant is not an evil thing, but you're free to believe whatever you like.

I know they are not the same thing. But both are adjacent. Being humbled and then showing little no empathy isn’t a thing.

 

[WhoISthis]

People need to slow down and remember that there are two parties to that contract and ESPN would be the one expected to pay more for the teams leaving the ACC when they land in other conferences. It'll only happen when ESPN is OK with it happening, and I can't imagine now is the time. When it does, it will all be hammered out well before public announcements come.

The networks want consolidation more than anyone.

And ESPN wouldn’t necessarily pay more, and won’t have a better or cheaper opportunity to dictate how the ACC is liquidated.

ESPN can let the GOR reach expiration, paying all schools for 13 years the ACC rate, then allowing schools to pick which conference and network they go to. Likely also lose some profit as schools fade to their regional peers in SEC. ESPN’s leverage on ACC schools only goes down each year.

Or they can move schools that make them more when in P2, while moving rest to the Big 12 where they can share costs of ACC low value schools with other providers, while also greatly expanding the conference network

Add in the P2 schools exit fee amortization reducing how much the networks need to pay in order to make ACC leftovers whole, and it’s a very cost effective way for espn to determine market share map

There is only one group that will be difficult to settle with- the middle class ACC that believe they are in Big 12 post GOR. They will hold out for P2 offer- a transaction cost. If Big 12 first goes to 16 with 4C, there’s not much room at that point, and the risk of middle class ACC approval not being needed brings a Prisoner’s dilemma situation

If the ACC can end early, it will end soon (in realignment sense). It’s not an easy transaction to execute because of 4 faction and the matter of how communication must be done, but it can be done from a business perspective

 

[Pope]

I know they are not the same thing. But both are adjacent. Being humbled and then showing little no empathy isn’t a thing.

Have you ever heard of tough love? Sometimes you have to allow others to experience adversity before they finally learn. And when it comes to arrogance, experiencing humility is about the only cure I know of. It's for their own good.

I'm sure our debate is boring everyone else, so I'm going to stop. Go ahead and enjoy the last word if you like.

 

[AuH2O]

People need to slow down and remember that there are two parties to that contract and ESPN would be the one expected to pay more for the teams leaving the ACC when they land in other conferences. It'll only happen when ESPN is OK with it happening, and I can't imagine now is the time. When it does, it will all be hammered out well before public announcements come.

Exactly. The company that televises FSU and Clemson now is going to pony up a bunch of cash to…televise FSU and Clemson? And Fox is just dying to drive tens of millions so UNC and UVA can fill out that FS2 content.

 

[WhoISthis]

Exactly. The company that televises FSU and Clemson now is going to pony up a bunch of cash to…televise FSU and Clemson? And Fox is just dying to drive tens of millions so UNC and UVA can fill out that FS2 content.

Remember Shanks objective since 2021 was to clear budget headroom so they could add as much premium market share as possible to BIG. It’s why the pulled the rug on PAC.

Fox wants ND in the BIG. The only way that has a chance of occurring is if there’s no ACC (or settlement on ACC GOR). If that occurs in 2036, espn gets nothing in return on their current ACC option. Lose market share as Fox/BIG takes a southern route to ND.

Or espn could utilize GOR. If Fox/BIG want a freed and homeless ND, they’ll need to help facilitate espn getting the ACC schools espn ultimately wants in SEC by Fox picking up some of the ACC deadweight costs (old Big East schools that happen to help Fox’s and Big 12 desire for more good CBB content). Perhaps BIG even gets 1-2 ACC schools, but they may just want ND.

 

[exCyDing]

Exactly. The company that televises FSU and Clemson now is going to pony up a bunch of cash to…televise FSU and Clemson? And Fox is just dying to drive tens of millions so UNC and UVA can fill out that FS2 content.

It gets overlooked that ESPN is paying the ACC schools $17m/year. Moving schools to the SEC would triple their cost for each school. Yes, the matchups might be better and you might get higher ratings, but are they 3x better? And are you cannibalizing yourself at that point? Each school brings their fanbase, but there are so many casual viewers, and they can only watch 1 game at a time.

Even moving school to the B12 would see an increase of around $5m per school from ESPN.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

It gets overlooked that ESPN is paying the ACC schools $17m/year. Moving schools to the SEC would triple their cost for each school. Yes, the matchups might be better and you might get higher ratings, but are they 3x better? And are you cannibalizing yourself at that point? Each school brings their fanbase, but there are so many casual viewers, and they can only watch 1 game at a time.

Even moving school to the B12 would see an increase of around $5m per school from ESPN.

Exactly. What espn gets out of the current deal is some decently attractive schools locked in for an incredible low rate for years. ESPN wants to be smart about its rights deals, what’s smarter than locking in a product for 13 years with minimal investment? 13 years ago Netflix was still delivering dvds by mail for people to watch shows. We have no idea what the sports media landscape will look like in 13 years. Locking in a P5 conference both for football and basketball at minimal cost is a masterwork deal that they would be idiotic to break.

 

[KnappShack]

Exactly. What espn gets out of the current deal is some decently attractive schools locked in for an incredible low rate for years. ESPN wants to be smart about its rights deals, what’s smarter than locking in a product for 13 years with minimal investment? 13 years ago Netflix was still delivering dvds by mail for people to watch shows. We have no idea what the sports media landscape will look like in 13 years. Locking in a P5 conference both for football and basketball at minimal cost is a masterwork deal that they would be idiotic to break.

And they must've had the ACC by the balls or have one hell of a sales department that pushed the "benefits" of the ACC Network.

Or maybe the ACC just made a **** deal.

 

[exCyDing]

Exactly. What espn gets out of the current deal is some decently attractive schools locked in for an incredible low rate for years. ESPN wants to be smart about its rights deals, what’s smarter than locking in a product for 13 years with minimal investment? 13 years ago Netflix was still delivering dvds by mail for people to watch shows. We have no idea what the sports media landscape will look like in 13 years. Locking in a P5 conference both for football and basketball at minimal cost is a masterwork deal that they would be idiotic to break.

I'll point this out again, but the Networks, B10, SEC and B12 are all doing just fine with the ACC schools exactly where they are. ND is very happy as an independent/part-ACC member. The ACC middle class would be doing about the same in either the ACC or the B12. The ACC schools that would get left out of the P3 are doing far better than they would be in the AAC or the AAC re-branded as the ACC. The B12 is well positioned to be the #3 conference, set for the next 8 years and unlikely to be raided again in the future.

The only ones who are doing worse are the 4-5 schools that the B10 or SEC would pick up, and they don't have the power or money to get themselves out.

The juice isn't worth the squeeze for anyone with the power and money to get them out.

 

[2speedy1]

And they must've had the ACC by the balls or have one hell of a sales department that pushed the "benefits" of the ACC Network.

Or maybe the ACC just made a **** deal.

I think a couple things were the biggest drivers of the terrible deal that the ACC has. Which at the time made it look like a good deal.

1) Having that long GOR gave the impression of stability, at the time there was the push for GORs and to lock up your membership for as long as possible, so you would not get poached like the B12.

2) At the time the push was for conference networks, because everyone looked at how great of a money maker the B1G Net was. What was unknown was that the success of the B1G Net is very hard to duplicate, especially if the network is not set up the same way.

In hindsight, both of these things appear to be failures for the ACC. They thought they would be good deals for them, but instead they have come back to bite them. This also goes to show how much can change in a few years, and how much we have no idea what things will look like in a decade plus.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

And they must've had the ACC by the balls or have one hell of a sales department that pushed the "benefits" of the ACC Network.

Or maybe the ACC just made a **** deal.

They made the deal 7 years ago. School presidents love consistency and security. This deal got them both. They aren’t a target for expansion because of the GOR and they are still bringing in ok money. If the ACC rights were up to bid right now there is nothing saying they would get a better deal and for everyone in the conference not named Clemson, FSU, Miami, the security is priceless.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I think most people understand if there is no conference there is no GOR. But then that is beyond extreme. People understand that is a way around it, and would basically be the only way it happens.

The thing is getting 8 schools on board and on the same page is an extreme level of cooperation, especially when its not all going to the same place. This could also open them up to collusion type suits from the other members not involved in it.

You need to realize all 8 teams would nave to know they had a landing spot, and need to know it was solid. This also would bring interference issues with those schools and the conferences they worked with to get a new home.

These conferences would have to give invites knowing they may not actually be able to leave, and may not get to bring their Media rights with them if everything doesnt go their way, and even then they could be in for lengthy legal battles following the change.

No one is saying it cant happen in any way... but there are extreme challenges for it to happen.

As far as the ACC will be falling behind even the B12 over the life of their contract let alone the B1G and SEC may be enough for these teams to risk all the possible challenges to get it done, but it is an extreme uphill battle with lots of issues to get through to get it done.

But for 8 schools to have a "safe" landing space in hand, that would mean that ESPN or Fox was talking to the schools outside the contract. By doing so they would be putting themselves in danger of a lawsuit by the ACC itself.

I think that is what Bowlsby was hinting at when he implied that ESPN was working to break apart the B12 with OU and UT leaving and offering more money to the AAC to get the left-over schools. The ACC would be in the same boat and sue both Fox and ESPN over talking to member schools and thereby causing the league to fail.

 

[Die4Cy]

Exactly. The company that televises FSU and Clemson now is going to pony up a bunch of cash to…televise FSU and Clemson? And Fox is just dying to drive tens of millions so UNC and UVA can fill out that FS2 content.

I've said it before and been dumped on, but there's a better chance ESPN renegotiates the ACC deal to increase payouts marginally, than any of the rest of this stuff actually going down before we get close to 2036.

 

[FerShizzle]

I've said it before and been dumped on, but there's a better chance ESPN renegotiates the ACC deal to increase payouts marginally, than any of the rest of this stuff actually going down before we get close to 2036.

No way FSU or Clemson willingly do anything to extend their media deal. They want out.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I've said it before and been dumped on, but there's a better chance ESPN renegotiates the ACC deal to increase payouts marginally, than any of the rest of this stuff actually going down before we get close to 2036.

Why would ESPN do this though? Not tying to dump on you but why would ESPN just pay them more for no reason? Come 2036 (or a couple years earlier) schools will be jumping ship so why spend more money on a product you already own? That’s just bad business.

 

[Acylum]

Wasn’t it supposedly critical for the PAC to get their deal done last week?

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Wasn’t it supposedly critical for the PAC to get their deal done last week?

The longer the wait, the more likely that the 4 corner schools leave. There is either no great deal there for the league, and their Comish is trying to hold out hoping to pull something out of his ass to appease team into staying. Oregon and Washington will sign a short term deal, but why would the 4 corner schools hang around, knowing none of them are heading to the B10 or SEC?

 

[exCyDing]

Wasn’t it supposedly critical for the PAC to get their deal done last week?

I think the deadline a few schools have was early April just after the NCAAs. Makes sense for setting up a June/July announcement to move to another conference if it doesn’t materialize.

 

[exCyDing]

The longer the wait, the more likely that the 4 corner schools leave. There is either no great deal there for the league, and their Comish is trying to hold out hoping to pull something out of his ass to appease team into staying. Oregon and Washington will sign a short term deal, but why would the 4 corner schools hang around, knowing none of them are heading to the B10 or SEC?

I could totally see WAOR fine with signing a crappy deal 12 months from now and spending that time hoping the B10 comes calling. That dream gets deferred as soon as they sign a GOR.

Everyone else needs to think about 2024 and beyond. What’s the lead time necessary to set up a conference change - legals, network deals, scheduling, logistics, marketing? 12 months seems like the bare minimum.