Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Scruff]

The trouble for people that actually have sources, the sources don't know at this time what is going to happen. Pretend you have a source inside School A. It's unlikely that all those with a vote in School A agree. Best the source can do is give thoughts on which way they think its going to go. Even then it can change in a heartbeat because they don't know what Schools B-Z are going to do. Even if all the schools involved have great communication, they clearly don't, they have no idea what the networks are going to do/offer. You have two options ignore it all until ink is dry and statements are made or have fun with it and try to guess which way the wind is blowing today.

I just listened to podcast episodes by Arizona 247, Colorado 247, and Arizona State 247. These guys all like CW tell you they have no idea what's going to happen, but all admitted the Big12 still seems the most likely. Pods all released yesterday. None understand how an ACC partnership would help. All think football should be priority and the Big12 clearly prioritizes football more than the Cali schools. It's far from guaranteed they come, but I read that as we stand good chance still at expanding with the corner schools.

 

[cygrads]

I think CU is our disruptor card in this. That conference is so fragile even a CU level school leaving would probably end it all.

Agree but I think it's not just CU but any member leaving now would cause a rush to the life rafts.

 

[AuH2O]

Where is CBS in all of this?

Probably spending it's time figuring out a workaround to the Sports Broadcasting Act so it can flood Saturdays with NFL

Maybe they just need 2-3 games/week in Mexico City that they can then broadcast on Saturdays.

 

[Acylum]

I think CU is our disruptor card in this. That conference is so fragile even a CU level school leaving would probably end it all.

OTOH, if you can get one of the Arizonas, you get both the Arizonas.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Where is CBS in all of this?

The Big 12 coming out of this with an expansion including other P5 schools, a streaming service overpaying to break into CFB with a big chunk of Big 12 TV rights, and a game every Saturday on CBS nationwide is the best case scenario. And Yormark just might pull it off.

 

[MugNight]

Probably spending it's time figuring out a workaround to the Sports Broadcasting Act so it can flood Saturdays with NFL

Maybe they just need 2-3 games/week in Mexico City that they can then broadcast on Saturdays.

Yikes, that would surely be an existential threat to CFB. Especially in all those “big markets” with NFL teams and D1 university football.

 

[exCyDing]

This is like a remake of the 2010 realignment movie. CU is playing the Mizzou role?

I think they're playing themselves in the remake.

In 2010, Mizzou was one of the schools making problems in the Big XII along with Nebraska and A&M. It looked like the whole thing might implode with Texas, OU and tbd others leaving for the PAC. CU got an early offer and took the safe route.

2022 looks to be about the same situation. USC and UCLA caused the PAC instability (along with the PAC administration being generally incompetent since 2010), CU is potentially taking the safe route for themselves by joining a more stable conference.

 

[scyclonekid]

Wait and see “insiders” on Twitter are just trying everything they can to keep eyeballs on their account. Just with some discussion I’ve had shooting the breeze if you will about all this and years ago I got a sense of schools mentioned the fans I chatted with wouldn’t mind coming to our conference. Also some Missouri and Nebraska alums I’ve chatted with didn’t like their moves to their new conference’s. Obviously it’s ultimately up to the schools on what they think is best, but their fans not all think otherwise. Personally my opinion is the 4 corner schools would benefit best in the big 12. We just have better fans across the board that show up.

 

[Clark]

Yikes, that would surely be an existential threat to CFB. Especially in all those “big markets” with NFL teams and D1 university football.

It might also destroy the NFL. College football is NFL's golden goose, they're not going to **** with that so long as college football remains a feeder league for the NFL rather than a competitor.

 

[isucy86]

Wait, are we talking about the B1G? The conference with a $100MM per school valuation that's already too high for even Oregon to be revenue positive? Virginia is not clearing that line.

People are constantly overlooking how hard it will be for any school to merit a B1G or SEC invite now that they have both massively ballooned their TV income. Many, many very good schools that are above the median school in those leagues in value will still be below the average, and thus money losers for the B1G/SEC.

The $100M is an average over the length of the Big10' new agreement. The last Big10 agreement was 6 years, but typically media rights deals have been 10 years or more.

So the $100M is probably a 2028/2029 figure. The Big10 2023/24 figure is probably in the $65-$75M.

So the media value of schools like Oregon, Washington, UCLA, Virginia & UNC doesn't have to be $100M. It has to be closer to $54M in 2022 dollars.

If the Big10 can bring in ND (whose 2022 value is at least $125M conservatively), they can add Oregon , Wash , etc and still grow per school payouts.

 

[scyclonekid]

It is fun talking about all the possibilities, angles etc, but at the end of the day we all want Iowa state in a great position and In my opinion believe we will be.

 

[CascadeClone]

I think you made some great points. The revenue bump the corner schools would get from moving to the B12 probably isn't large, but the stability concerns and viewership trends should tip the scale in favor of the B12. We all see that, but it could take some time for that reality to sink in.

So you're selling stability more than revenue. But can't they just stay put, and if UO/UW bail the Big12 will still be there? That's (unfortunately) probably something they are thinking about.

Not sure how you pressure them harder, unless you say "we are only taking 4" - and share that message to not only the 4 Mountains, but also UW/UO as well as Wazzu and Oregon St. I think Gunner mentioned Colorado as the weak link in their chain, but I bet a nickel Oregon St and Wazzu are even more puckered up over this. Make the offer to them too, and see how the Mountain 4 react.

I think it is critical for the Big12 to add some teams before ESPN comes raiding via the ACC... maybe they think they could still disrupt the GoR and OuT's buyout money if they can get the Big12 to dissolve, not to mention holding a grudge.

 

[Clonehomer]

Starting to believe the Big 12 strategically leaked that these talks were more advanced than they were, in an attempt to scare somebody into jumping and starting the dominoes.

Perhaps. But another way to look is that these schools are trying to downplay those talks just in case they choose to go another direction. Deniability is key to keeping a strong partnership with your current conference if things turn out that way. Denying the extent of talks does nothing to hurt your relationship with the Big12.

 

[Gunnerclone]

This is like a remake of the 2010 realignment movie. CU is playing the Mizzou role?

Insert <kevinnealonhappygilmore.gif>

 

[snowcraig2.0]

Starting to believe the Big 12 strategically leaked that these talks were more advanced than they were, in an attempt to scare somebody into jumping and starting the dominoes.

Colorado board of regents don't meet for the heck of it. This guy doesn't know anything more than anyone else.

 

[Cydwinder]

Colorado board of regents don't meet for the heck of it. This guy doesn't know anything more than anyone else.

Agreed and also the lack of an in-person meeting doesn’t mean anything either. You can have the exact same conversation via a zoom meeting as you can with a face to face meeting.

 

[WhoISthis]

Here is the thing - if the ACC deal is going to get better, they need to open everything up again. And if they do that, their top brands are gone immediately. I just don't believe anything with the ACC.

ESPN and most ACC schools likely want that imo. ESPN gets its desire P3 setup, top ACC schools get SEC, other ACC schools get to become base of P3, maybe for more money than 2016 era deal.

Better for espn than risk letting Fox setup the Big 18, the top of the ACC being so desperate they force their way out, maybe some to BIG.

I would not put it past ESPN from manipulating the Big 12 and Pac schools into joining ACC, then later finding a way to move top of ACC to SEC. Playing Big 12 leftovers isn’t appeasing the top of ACC from wanting in a P2

 

[isucy86]

Not seeing how Okie St would make a move that could weaken their recruiting in Texas.

Also don't see how adding OSU and TCU help Clemson, UNC, FSU & Miami get more than the $35-$40M/year they make today. With already 14 ACC schools to share media $, TCU & Okie State would have to bring a combined media value of $150M to grow ACC revenue per school by $5M!!

If TCU & Okie State were worth $75M each, the SEC would be banging on their door. At least whispering in their ear, telling them to be patient!!

 

[exCyDing]

The only thing I worry about at all is access to the playoff. Personally, I will start getting nervous when the Big 10 and SEC start looking to add multiple teams that don't really seem to make sense from a per team media value perspective, and between the SEC and Big 10 they get over 40 members.

For now I think ESPN and Fox both understand that cutting off a chunk of the plains (low population by very high interest in CFB), Washington, Northern CA, Arizona, CO and Utah from the playoff would jeopardize growth. None of these areas are absolutely critical, but all of which, they are either high population or high interest. All together it starts to matter. Bigger pieces of the pie for those that remain, but cutting those areas out limits how much that pie might grow in the future. I think football growth rate is tenuous. I don't think we've seen the hit that the massive decrease in kids participating in football will eventually have.

If the Big 10 adds Oregon, UW, and say Stanford, with a spot open for ND, while the ACC starts to take steps toward dissolution with UNC, UVA, FSU and Clemson all Big 10 or SEC bound, I'm starting to get worried. Then you might see a couple Big 12 brands poached. That's why I would rather see the Big 12 get aggressive, add the four corners schools and make a push for UW. I don't think the Big 12 can sit looking to optimize media dollars per team. The conference needs critical mass and enough critical geography locked up to help stabilize the conference and playoff access.

That also suggests to me that the Big 12 better be careful if they stray from ESPN or Fox in media deals. Like it or not, if you sign a decent media deal with one of those two, the Big 12 becomes a co-product of one of the P2, and that media partner becomes motivated to keep the Big 12's playoff access. If you sign outside of those two, they probably push the P2 to poach enough to blow up the remaining leagues.

That's a good point, sticking with Fox and/or ESPN give them a reason to keep the Big XII (as well as the ACC and PAC if it survives) at least marginally relevant in the CFP.

As far as membership strategy, I think the best immediate strategy would be to grab as many schools from the PAC as possible while still keeping the conference payout ahead of the ACC. Maximizing that amount is less important that staying at #3.

 

[drmwevr08]

Colorado board of regents don't meet for the heck of it. This guy doesn't know anything more than anyone else.

Right? The deniers are as likely to be full of **** as anyone. Also, lots of people think they would know but aren't nearly important enough to actually.