Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Kinch]

At what point does Alabama and Georgia form a new conference with ESPN and pick 8 more schools of their choice. Then Michigan and Ohio State will do the same with Fox. It is possible that the blue bloods will view many of their conference brothers as mooches that are holding them back financially. Recent events prove there is no loyalty.

That is the next logical step.

 

[Kinch]

At what point does Alabama and Georgia form a new conference with ESPN and pick 8 more schools of their choice. Then Michigan and Ohio State will do the same with Fox. It is possible that the blue bloods will view many of their conference brothers as mooches that are holding them back financially. Recent events prove there is no loyalty.

Can you imagine Hok fans then?

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

I didn’t predict any of OU, Texas, USC, or UCLA moving, so the only thing I am confident about is that I don’t know what’s going to happen. That said, I think there are two truths that will guide next steps.

1. Nobody can leave the ACC due to ACC’s grant of rights through 2036. The civil liability a school would owe for violating a grant of rights is enormous; It would simply cost too much for any individual or small group of schools to break that contract.

2. The Big 10 and SEC will not add schools that do not add revenue for existing members, which means no more schools will be added unless they have media rights worth >$110M annually. Every single one of the Big 10 and SEC’s moves since the Big 10 added Penn State back in the day has been revenue enhancing for their existing members. Even when the Big 10 added lowly Rutgers, it helped open New York market to Big 10 network. The thing is, the SEC and Big 10 media contracts are now so valuable that every school (or group of schools) they add has to have media rights worth $110M+ per school annually, or else adding a school means LESS money for existing members. There are literally no schools that meet that criteria left in the Big 12 or Pac 12. For example, a few pages back folks linked a Fox Sports exec explaining that Oregon and Washington’s media rights are only worth $30M annually. Even if that’s a low ball estimate, that’s WAY under what the Big 10 would require in order for those schools to be revenue enhancing for their existing members. And even though it would be impossible for any school to leave the ACC, even if they could, it is also true that no school in that league is worth $110M+, including Clemson (small market)/Florida State/Miami.

The only school left on the table that has media rights worth $110M annually is Notre Dame; therefore, there won’t be any additional moves by the Big 10 or SEC unless Notre Dame decides to move. Notre Dame is bound by the ACC’s grant of rights for most sports but not football. That means Notre Dame could probably move if they wanted to, but a move outside the ACC would still be costly. I have also read that Notre Dame is contractually committed to joining ACC for football if it joins a conference, and that may also limit Notre Dame’s ability to join any conference other than ACC. And Notre Dame’s identity is wrapped up in remaining independent. Notre Dame isn’t a good fit for SEC. So, taking all that into account, Notre Dame’s choice (if they have one) is likely between full membership in Big 10 or continuing independence/partial membership in ACC. I could see this choice going either way.

If Notre Dame joins Big 10, then I think Big 10 adds 1-3 schools from Pac 10; this would satisfy all truths noted above. A group of 2 schools including Notre Dame and perhaps Oregon or or Stanford would be revenue enhancing to the Big 10, and would not violate ACC grant of rights as to football. Probably just Notre Dame + 1 more.

Given the contractual issues noted above, I think it is more likely that Notre Dame says no to the Big 10 and works out a favorable deal with ACC, preserving independence but maybe adding regular access to ACC championship game like ACC provided Notre Dame recently in exchange for increasing number of ACC games. I could see ACC adding West Virginia in this scenario to get to 16 schools, matching SEC and Big 10. This combination would likely be revenue enhancing, and would not violate ACC grant of rights.

Ok, so what happens to Big 12 and Pac 12? I don’t know. But it is clear that there will be a collection of somewhat valuable schools that will never be invited to Big 10 or SEC; even Oregon will probably get left out of the club. If I had to guess, I’d guess/hope that once the dust settles with Notre Dame, the top 16 most valuable remaining schools in Big 12 and Pac 12 will form a new conference and leave behind the weaker schools. I think Iowa State is one of the top 16 schools but I don’t think that is certain.

Lots of talking heads are saying the Big 10 and SEC are destined to form super conferences of something like 40 teams total and then have their own playoff. I would bet good money against this. The Big 10 and SEC are now in position to set the terms for an incredibly valuable playoff and capture most of the revenue from that playoff for themselves; they can do that staying at 16 and without adding schools that reduce media rights value - i.e. schools that aren’t individually worth $110M annually. Plus keeping the playoff open to all FBS schools probably reduces antitrust risk.

Bottom line: Iowa State is probably going to be included in a group of second tier schools that make decent money and still have playoff access. Will be interesting to see what Notre Dame does, whether there is a Pac 12/Big 12 merger of some kind or if new conference composed of most valuable remaining schools is formed, and if there is new conference whether Iowa State is included.

Just how much money do these B10 schools need? Last time it was you had brought in 50 million, now its 110 million?
That is the EIU fan base talking, the fact is Ohio State, Penn. State and Michigan will decide who gets in and who doesn't, because they are the money makers for the conference. If the other schools do not want to play ball and go along with it, then those schools and a few others will leave and start this true college football super conference.

The Iowa's, Illinois', Mich. States of the conference knew they have a sweet deal, and are not going to give that up because Oregon or Washington are only going to bring in 30 million, so the cut for each school now is 100 million. They will take the lesser payout and whistle all the way to the bank. Because they all know that 90 years ago they joined a conference that hit the lotto, and they could have just as easily picked the B12 or the ACC and ended up like Kansas State and Iowa State.

 

[Acylum]

At what point does Alabama and Georgia form a new conference with ESPN and pick 8 more schools of their choice. Then Michigan and Ohio State will do the same with Fox. It is possible that the blue bloods will view many of their conference brothers as mooches that are holding them back financially. Recent events prove there is no loyalty.

Much easier to force unequal revenue sharing on their conference mates. You think schools like Iowa would stand up to that?

 

[JM4CY]

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

Much easier to force unequal revenue sharing on their conference mates. You think schools like Iowa would stand up to that?

They will ***** and moan, but in the end, they would take the reduced payment, because they and the others would have no choice. The money is still better than any other place where they could end up.

 

[Cyforce]

You can pretty much bank on protected games for the big two looking something like this to benefit recruiting.

Ohio st- Michigan, UCLA, Penn st.
Micigan- tOSU, USC, MSU

Then
Iowa- Nebraska, Minnesota, Maryland (because Purdue got too tough)

 

[MeanDean]

That CU board is something. Found this little gem under a thread called Big 12 baby, baby, please…

View attachment 100391

Obviously the dude is (Rocky Mountain) high

 

[jdoggivjc]

The non-mountain portions of Colorado are ******* terrible.

Basically Nebraska and Kansas, but with a distant view of the mountains.

 

[CascadeClone]

What's funny is BOTH Utah and BYU fans absolutely dread the idea of being in the same conference again. They HATE each other...very clear. Utah fans are anyplace but the B12 and having to play BYU. BYU fans are F them...don't throw them a life line. Kinda funny.

Gotta respect the passion.

Feels like getting them both in the conference is like setting up a permanent cage match. I like it.

 

[CoKane]

Interesting, but dumb.

No football = no interest.

It's more likely they would be added to the Pac after other teams are poached by us or whomever.

It's kind of a slap in the face by media types thinking Big XII is going to jump on a basketball powerhouse. And the concept of adding St. Mary's etc. is the next closest thing to trolling I've read in a long time.

Yeah this is stupid. We're not playing a notice me game with Espn, who hates us as it is

 

[Kinch]

If THE Ohio state forces unequal distribution, will Tom Osborne stomp his feet and take his toy to another conference like he did last time. I think the best thing for the Big 12 would be for unequal sharing in the Big 10. Quickest way to destroy a conference.

 

[keepngoal]

If THE Ohio state forces unequal distribution, will Tom Osborne stomp his feet and take his toy to another conference like he did last time. I think the best thing for the Big 12 would be for unequal sharing in the Big 10. Quickest way to destroy a conference.

I disagree.... if the non Buckeye schools are still getting 20-30% more than those in the B12 .... Why would they leave? They wouldn't.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

Last year's USC homecoming crowd. Vs. Arizona.
View attachment 100388

This is what is scary, no one cares about attendance; it’s all about viewership.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

every time numbers are reported for the Big 12, it is always lower than what we are actually getting. So many non Big 12 media love to report the Big 12 in a negative light for some reason. The Big 12 has an image problem for the past 10 years or so and it is not because of performance on the field.

At this point its not lazy journalism; it’s an agenda.

 

[exCyDing]

At what point does Alabama and Georgia form a new conference with ESPN and pick 8 more schools of their choice. Then Michigan and Ohio State will do the same with Fox. It is possible that the blue bloods will view many of their conference brothers as mooches that are holding them back financially. Recent events prove there is no loyalty.

That’s the next step. As long as Notre Dame is out there and there’s a few brands they want from the ACC, they’ll probably hold off.

If I recall, the Big 10 and SEC don’t have a GOR for their members. Right now, it makes a ton of sense because nobody’s leaving for a better deal elsewhere.

Don’t think the powers-that-be accidentally left that in there. When the time is right and all the key programs are in the right place (SEC or Big 10), the top teams from those two conferences is out the door for the new Super Conference.

I’m guessing it’ll be 24-32, but could be as few as 14.

 

[isu81]

Yeah its a catch 22 I think for them. If they try to add, then they open the flood gates for the top to leave with no protections. If they do nothing they either risk falling behind everyone, and/or their teams finding any other way for themselves to get out.

What will happen to the ACC if they stay with their current situation until 2036, is everyone, even the Big 12 will be so far ahead that they will be in no longer relevant.

My feeling is the if that happens the ACC will be getting, 1/3 - 1/4 what the B1G and SEC are getting by 2036 if even that much. The Big 12 should still be in the 1/2 - 3/4 range. And when you are talking about the level of say 150-200M per school by 2036, for the SEC and B1G, 100-125M for Big 12, and just 50-60M for the ACC they will be closer to G5 than the top 2 conferences.

That would put schools like Clemson and FSU so far behind that they may no longer be candidates for the top 2 conferences. I dont know if the ACC can afford to wait it out. They are really in a bad spot.

There is no way the current ACC contract lasts until 2036. It will be broken within the next couple years.

 

[2speedy1]

The ones I found are poor compared to CF, but just search the team name and Message Board. I did find out that the Arizona State president graduated from Iowa State.

I have yet to find any message board for a college that is as good as CF.

CF is so far beyond what some of those generic Rival and 247 boards are.

 

[cygrads]

The non-mountain portions of Colorado are ******* terrible.

Agree, only the western third of Colorado is interesting - the eastern two thirds is a dump or the equivalent of Kansas and Nebraska.

 

[CoKane]

Dying to know the obscure 2. Guessing women's bball, but what is third?

Guessing mens and womens basketball are 2 and 3. Maybe volleyball as 4 so theres one all male and one all female?