Last year's USC homecoming crowd. Vs. Arizona.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
- Start date
Maybe Baylor can put them in touch with their tarp supplier.
Interesting to look through all articles on who goes where.
One has that the Big 10 would chose Stanford over Oregon or Washington because of its academics, research and proximity to a number of Big 10 graduates.
Another has Stanford being the reason the Pac 12 imploded and its faculty would go ballistic if the football players become paid employees (which is possible in the Big 10).
Another wouldn't be surprised if Stanford (and Cal, for that matter) drop football.
Another questions the value of the Bay Area media market for college football.
One has that the Big 10 would chose Stanford over Oregon or Washington because of its academics, research and proximity to a number of Big 10 graduates.
Another has Stanford being the reason the Pac 12 imploded and its faculty would go ballistic if the football players become paid employees (which is possible in the Big 10).
Another wouldn't be surprised if Stanford (and Cal, for that matter) drop football.
Another questions the value of the Bay Area media market for college football.
I think one time years ago the clones played San Diego state there and the game didn't get over until after midnight CST.
This is a pretty decent site that has links to most of the college teams forums:
College Football Forums Guide - Find popular message boards for all 131 FBS (D1A) teams
Links to the most popular forums for all 131 Football Bowl Subdivision (D1A) teams.
www.footballforumsguide.com
Take 4 mountain schools and Oregon and Washington. Still Big XII (12 states).
My dream scenario that I feel like has a more than 1% chance of happening
Colorado
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
join.
Big 10 takes Stanford over Oregon
Big 10 and SEC start picking the ACC off, Big 12 takes remains:
Oregon
Washington
Oregon State or WAZZU
Miami
Pittsburgh
Louisville
join Big 12
This done and in place by 2025
Colorado
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
join.
Big 10 takes Stanford over Oregon
Big 10 and SEC start picking the ACC off, Big 12 takes remains:
Oregon
Washington
Oregon State or WAZZU
Miami
Pittsburgh
Louisville
join Big 12
This done and in place by 2025
If ESPN allows us to poach the ACC, then everyone can start their power conference the same year.
Hasn't the thought been from many of these reporters that UT and OU would be here for 22 and 23 seasons, and then buy themselves out for the 24 season. By then the buyout goes down, and that is the year that ESPN takes over the SEC contract.
What the B12 has to be sure to do is not give them any breaks on the deal to leave, either pay the full amount, or stay another year.
He has a lot of good info, but right off the bat his pay out numbers for the Big 12 are off. The Big 12 Paid 43.2M. Not in the 30s has he said.
every time numbers are reported for the Big 12, it is always lower than what we are actually getting. So many non Big 12 media love to report the Big 12 in a negative light for some reason. The Big 12 has an image problem for the past 10 years or so and it is not because of performance on the field.
I didn’t predict any of OU, Texas, USC, or UCLA moving, so the only thing I am confident about is that I don’t know what’s going to happen. That said, I think there are two truths that will guide next steps.
1. Nobody can leave the ACC due to ACC’s grant of rights through 2036. The civil liability a school would owe for violating a grant of rights is enormous; It would simply cost too much for any individual or small group of schools to break that contract.
2. The Big 10 and SEC will not add schools that do not add revenue for existing members, which means no more schools will be added unless they have media rights worth >$110M annually. Every single one of the Big 10 and SEC’s moves since the Big 10 added Penn State back in the day has been revenue enhancing for their existing members. Even when the Big 10 added lowly Rutgers, it helped open New York market to Big 10 network. The thing is, the SEC and Big 10 media contracts are now so valuable that every school (or group of schools) they add has to have media rights worth $110M+ per school annually, or else adding a school means LESS money for existing members. There are literally no schools that meet that criteria left in the Big 12 or Pac 12. For example, a few pages back folks linked a Fox Sports exec explaining that Oregon and Washington’s media rights are only worth $30M annually. Even if that’s a low ball estimate, that’s WAY under what the Big 10 would require in order for those schools to be revenue enhancing for their existing members. And even though it would be impossible for any school to leave the ACC, even if they could, it is also true that no school in that league is worth $110M+, including Clemson (small market)/Florida State/Miami.
The only school left on the table that has media rights worth $110M annually is Notre Dame; therefore, there won’t be any additional moves by the Big 10 or SEC unless Notre Dame decides to move. Notre Dame is bound by the ACC’s grant of rights for most sports but not football. That means Notre Dame could probably move if they wanted to, but a move outside the ACC would still be costly. I have also read that Notre Dame is contractually committed to joining ACC for football if it joins a conference, and that may also limit Notre Dame’s ability to join any conference other than ACC. And Notre Dame’s identity is wrapped up in remaining independent. Notre Dame isn’t a good fit for SEC. So, taking all that into account, Notre Dame’s choice (if they have one) is likely between full membership in Big 10 or continuing independence/partial membership in ACC. I could see this choice going either way.
If Notre Dame joins Big 10, then I think Big 10 adds 1-3 schools from Pac 10; this would satisfy all truths noted above. A group of 2 schools including Notre Dame and perhaps Oregon or or Stanford would be revenue enhancing to the Big 10, and would not violate ACC grant of rights as to football. Probably just Notre Dame + 1 more.
Given the contractual issues noted above, I think it is more likely that Notre Dame says no to the Big 10 and works out a favorable deal with ACC, preserving independence but maybe adding regular access to ACC championship game like ACC provided Notre Dame recently in exchange for increasing number of ACC games. I could see ACC adding West Virginia in this scenario to get to 16 schools, matching SEC and Big 10. This combination would likely be revenue enhancing, and would not violate ACC grant of rights.
Ok, so what happens to Big 12 and Pac 12? I don’t know. But it is clear that there will be a collection of somewhat valuable schools that will never be invited to Big 10 or SEC; even Oregon will probably get left out of the club. If I had to guess, I’d guess/hope that once the dust settles with Notre Dame, the top 16 most valuable remaining schools in Big 12 and Pac 12 will form a new conference and leave behind the weaker schools. I think Iowa State is one of the top 16 schools but I don’t think that is certain.
Lots of talking heads are saying the Big 10 and SEC are destined to form super conferences of something like 40 teams total and then have their own playoff. I would bet good money against this. The Big 10 and SEC are now in position to set the terms for an incredibly valuable playoff and capture most of the revenue from that playoff for themselves; they can do that staying at 16 and without adding schools that reduce media rights value - i.e. schools that aren’t individually worth $110M annually. Plus keeping the playoff open to all FBS schools probably reduces antitrust risk.
Bottom line: Iowa State is probably going to be included in a group of second tier schools that make decent money and still have playoff access. Will be interesting to see what Notre Dame does, whether there is a Pac 12/Big 12 merger of some kind or if new conference composed of most valuable remaining schools is formed, and if there is new conference whether Iowa State is included.
1. Nobody can leave the ACC due to ACC’s grant of rights through 2036. The civil liability a school would owe for violating a grant of rights is enormous; It would simply cost too much for any individual or small group of schools to break that contract.
2. The Big 10 and SEC will not add schools that do not add revenue for existing members, which means no more schools will be added unless they have media rights worth >$110M annually. Every single one of the Big 10 and SEC’s moves since the Big 10 added Penn State back in the day has been revenue enhancing for their existing members. Even when the Big 10 added lowly Rutgers, it helped open New York market to Big 10 network. The thing is, the SEC and Big 10 media contracts are now so valuable that every school (or group of schools) they add has to have media rights worth $110M+ per school annually, or else adding a school means LESS money for existing members. There are literally no schools that meet that criteria left in the Big 12 or Pac 12. For example, a few pages back folks linked a Fox Sports exec explaining that Oregon and Washington’s media rights are only worth $30M annually. Even if that’s a low ball estimate, that’s WAY under what the Big 10 would require in order for those schools to be revenue enhancing for their existing members. And even though it would be impossible for any school to leave the ACC, even if they could, it is also true that no school in that league is worth $110M+, including Clemson (small market)/Florida State/Miami.
The only school left on the table that has media rights worth $110M annually is Notre Dame; therefore, there won’t be any additional moves by the Big 10 or SEC unless Notre Dame decides to move. Notre Dame is bound by the ACC’s grant of rights for most sports but not football. That means Notre Dame could probably move if they wanted to, but a move outside the ACC would still be costly. I have also read that Notre Dame is contractually committed to joining ACC for football if it joins a conference, and that may also limit Notre Dame’s ability to join any conference other than ACC. And Notre Dame’s identity is wrapped up in remaining independent. Notre Dame isn’t a good fit for SEC. So, taking all that into account, Notre Dame’s choice (if they have one) is likely between full membership in Big 10 or continuing independence/partial membership in ACC. I could see this choice going either way.
If Notre Dame joins Big 10, then I think Big 10 adds 1-3 schools from Pac 10; this would satisfy all truths noted above. A group of 2 schools including Notre Dame and perhaps Oregon or or Stanford would be revenue enhancing to the Big 10, and would not violate ACC grant of rights as to football. Probably just Notre Dame + 1 more.
Given the contractual issues noted above, I think it is more likely that Notre Dame says no to the Big 10 and works out a favorable deal with ACC, preserving independence but maybe adding regular access to ACC championship game like ACC provided Notre Dame recently in exchange for increasing number of ACC games. I could see ACC adding West Virginia in this scenario to get to 16 schools, matching SEC and Big 10. This combination would likely be revenue enhancing, and would not violate ACC grant of rights.
Ok, so what happens to Big 12 and Pac 12? I don’t know. But it is clear that there will be a collection of somewhat valuable schools that will never be invited to Big 10 or SEC; even Oregon will probably get left out of the club. If I had to guess, I’d guess/hope that once the dust settles with Notre Dame, the top 16 most valuable remaining schools in Big 12 and Pac 12 will form a new conference and leave behind the weaker schools. I think Iowa State is one of the top 16 schools but I don’t think that is certain.
Lots of talking heads are saying the Big 10 and SEC are destined to form super conferences of something like 40 teams total and then have their own playoff. I would bet good money against this. The Big 10 and SEC are now in position to set the terms for an incredibly valuable playoff and capture most of the revenue from that playoff for themselves; they can do that staying at 16 and without adding schools that reduce media rights value - i.e. schools that aren’t individually worth $110M annually. Plus keeping the playoff open to all FBS schools probably reduces antitrust risk.
Bottom line: Iowa State is probably going to be included in a group of second tier schools that make decent money and still have playoff access. Will be interesting to see what Notre Dame does, whether there is a Pac 12/Big 12 merger of some kind or if new conference composed of most valuable remaining schools is formed, and if there is new conference whether Iowa State is included.
You can go all the way back to last year's UNLV game. 7:38 PT (9:38 CT) kickoff, game finished just before 1 a.m. central.
Naw their were reports last year all over the Pac that looked like that. Remember Mandel's post about the Rose bowl being empty for UCLA game, then the next week it was full of LSU fans and back to empty the next week.
I think this is a pretty good analysis. There are two issues with it however.
1. Notre Dame cannot maintain any kind of independence and get access to ACC Championship. It is either join the ACC fully or stay independent in football. There is no in-between.
2. There will not be a "new" conference between the Pac 12/Big 12 "merging". It will be one conference poaching the other. (Right now it looks like Big 12 poaching Pac 12). There is no guarantee that a new conference will keep P5 status, but Big 12 is grandfathered into P5 status which means they have access to the CFP. They are not going to give that up by forming a new conference.
