Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[jctisu]

The networks are taking a calculated risk that the eyeballs and ad dollars they gain by more frequent marquee matchups will outweigh the loss of viewership from casual fans of schools like ISU who are on the outside looking in. They're gambling that fans like us are bluffing when we say that we will turn away from the sport.

And they might be right. College fans are super loyal to their schools. If our future TV payouts don't crater entirely and we still have a path to the playoff - both are those are very big 'ifs', but for the sake of argument assume they happen - most of us will probably talk ourselves into sticking around. And if we're going to watch our team, we're probably going to watch other teams too.

This post is an example of what it would take, but it's never going to happen. If the fanbases of all these schools that could be left behind never tune into ANY of these Big Ten or SEC games, then things would have to change. Problem is you won't have that happen, as many people who say this are just blowing smoke and never commit to not tuning into the marquee game (Bama/Georgia, Oklahoma/Texas, etc. etc.).

It would have to take every diehard and casual fan for these forgotten schools to make any possible dent when you couple that with the younger generations turning away from sports at a faster clip then previous ones. Millennials were crucial for the boom in sports, but data shows Gen-Z is drastically different by 10+% in sports viewership.

 

[Trice]

John Canzano talks to a former Fox Sports Networks president, who tries to game out the media landscape for the Pac.

Canzano: Pac-12 gut punch comes with a cost

Ex-Fox Sports Network executive weighs in; could Oregon-Washington be next for Big Ten?

www.johncanzano.com

 

[isucy86]

I am a rabid CFB fan and MBB to a lesser extent. I attend and watch ISU FB games every week. Before and after, I watch other games sun up to sundown; as well as games Wed-Fri. I cared, because ISU and I were connected to a greater thing; with its national scope, pageantry, traditions, rivalries, etc..

This is dying for me, they are ruining what was great about CFB. I will watch ISU, as well as other B12 games; but I am over it. My Saturdays just got a lot more productive. Some casual fans will be done, but some won’t. However, I think there is a diehard group of fans that they will turn into casual fans.

CFB attendance is declining, is viewership? It seems shortsighted to reduce your “league“ fanbase; all while media partners over extend themselves financially for this ”content”. Now, add NIL; transfer portal and realignment to super league BS…it’s not sustainable. The NFL has rules in place on these issues.

i just hope these greedy SOBs and their plan fails fast, so that we have a chance to return to what once once great about college football.

We are already seeing the threat to college hoops with G-League Ignite and Overtime Elite. It's just a natural progression to the Prep "School" explosion over the last 5 years.

Think back to what Prep Schools were when Georges Niang came to Ames. Basically, Oak Hill and a group in the NE.

 

[cyclonemagic]

Hopefully, this is not true...

There is no interest from Big12 to take any Pac12 schools

 

[Gorm]

Paywall free link: https://archive.ph/iV4Fy

 

[JM4CY]

Hopefully, this is not true...

There is no interest from Big12 to take any Pac12 schools

A. That guy is an idiot
B. Of course the Big 12 is going to publicly say nothing else but that. We’ve been there.
C. CW warned of random crap posted on Twitter

 

[cyfanatic]

Hopefully, this is not true...

There is no interest from Big12 to take any Pac12 schools

Well...to nitpick...why would there be "no interest"...that position would be foolish! At least say "we are evaluating the landscape and would move if we see a positive outcome from a move". To say a flat-out "no interest" seems dumb!

 

[Trice]

Hopefully, this is not true...

There is no interest from Big12 to take any Pac12 schools

1. That's two days old, which is like nine months in realignment years.
2. Other reports contradicted that almost immediately. (Of course, who knows if those reports were accurate either.)
3. Nobody wants to be seen as a homewrecker, that's why the public line is always "We didn't approach the schools, they approached us."

 

[CloneJD]

Well...to nitpick...why would there be "no interest"...that position would be foolish! At least say "we are evaluating the landscape and would move if we see a positive outcome from a move". To say a flat-out "no interest" seems dumb!

No one in the big12 has said there is ‘no interest’. Dodds is generalizing one off hand comment made by one person.

 

[cyfanatic]

No one in the big12 has said there is ‘no interest’. Dodds is generalizing one off hand comment made by one person.

Yeah...it would be interesting to hear this person publically lay out the reasons for his comment. Everyone has an opinion but would love to hear an insider take this position explain it...with no hidden agendas.

 

[isucy86]

If there comes a time when college football is all about the P2 leagues...and Iowa State is not a part of those P2 leagues...will Iowa State be able to charge prices for games the same as Iowa will if Iowa is in the P2? Will Iowa State be able to pay coaches the same as Iowa? Market themselves the same as Iowa? There certainly will be a difference in revenue between those two schools if that happens. Just hope that difference isn't as predominant as the difference is now between say an Iowa State and a UNI type situation. Not saying Iowa State could become UNI...but there is a clear difference in those two programs based on their affiliations. If a clear difference occurs between the P2 and whatever we find ourselves in...it will show up. Will 50000 people want to continue packing the Jack under those circumstances? My heart says "I hope so"...but in reality I just don't know.

To be clear, this isn't about a competition between Iowa State, Iowa and UNI...just used those schools because we live in a space where we can potentially see as much of a direct impact of what is happening as any other state that has passionate college football fans.

There is already a big gap between Iowa and ISU from a revenue standpoint. Iowa is around $150M and ISU around $100M. So the Hawks have the cash to pay coaches more, etc. etc.

If there will be a P2 +2 (ACC & Big 20), I still think ISU will have a compelling sport product including FB. I would be excited to have CU, UU, ASU and UA on our schedule! I would pay what I am today to watch football & hoops games.

NIL could actually benefit the non-P2 schools. What's more attractive to a HS recruit, go sit on the bench at Michigan for 2 years and hope to start. Or come to ISU, earn a starting job as a freshman or sophomore. Playing time will open NIL opportunities or if a player thinks P2 provides a better opportunity, transfer out.

With the possibility of pay for play, Title IX implications and transfer portal does 85 football scholarships become untenable? The NFL gets by with 53 roster players, could colleges get by with 65 scholarships?

 

[Gunnerclone]

An SEC “expert” brought up an interesting point on the radio yesterday:

He questioned why the SEC would want to expand. He said unless a Clemson or Florida State can bring in more revenue than the current anticipated per team payout you only dilute the remaining teams revenue AND make it easier for a competitor to compete.

Norte Dame is really the only school that is a needle mover.

My (admittedly optimistic) hope:

Notre Dame figures they can still get more money flying solo.

Big 10 and SEC realize the expert is right and stop expanding.

The Big 12 grabs Oregon, Washington and MAYBE two others.

Texas and Ohio State start getting greedy and push for unequal shares.

The BiG 12(16) becomes the best conference as the “big boys“ implode.

i hear/see that take all the time. I hope my company never thinks like that when making acquisitions. Right now rarely ever matters.

 

[CoKane]

LA-based writer Bill Plaschke says every Saturday will be like a Rose Bowl, with those USC-Michigan and UCLA-Ohio State games! Basketball season will be lit, too, with a weekend of UCLA-Indiana and UCLA-Michigan State on the docket!

As usual, the media fanboys conveniently forget to mention the Friday night USC at Rutgers BTN football matchup, or UCLA taking on the basketball powerhouse that is Northwestern on a Tuesday night.

Yep. When every day is special then none are

Also yeah, we dont know how the schedule is set up or how many conference games will be played yet. If they do 8 and pods there's gonna be a real chance USC is saying "what do you mean our home slate is Nebraska, Minnesota, Maryland, and Indiana? And we're playing at Iowa in december? Wtf?

Or UCLAs reaction when they're told they have a Thursday/Sunday week on the east coast playing at Penn State and Rutgers and then come home to host Northwestern.

Pretty sure a no, we're not doing that isnt gonna work for the Bigb10

 

[KidSilverhair]

Yep. When every day is special then none are

 

[CoKane]

Texas and Ohio State start getting greedy and push for unequal shares.

One of my big opinions is that Texas leaves the SEC before or during the ACC stuff unless they're locked into a GOR, then after that. They'll realize the SEC doesnt give a **** about their 5-7 records and brand from 20 years ago while Bama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, etc are all winning and have that name as well

 

[CyJack13]

Why watch college football? Because you're a fan of a team? I'm not sure about you, but most people I know who watch college football do it because they are a fan of a team, or it's their alma mater and they'll turn it on every once in a while, or their friends are fans and they'll join in to watch. For example, NDSU alums and fans watch FCS football but they don't tune in to FBS.

I know of very few people who are like "Oh yeah, this is the top matchup in college football so I guess I'll just watch it even though I'm not a fan of any team in the league." The people who do things like that are hardcore sports junkies.
It would be sort of like saying that people who are casual fans of the basketball would tune in to a top matchup in the G-League just for fun because it's the second best level of basketball. Not going to happen.

If a P2 league forms, people who have no association to the teams in it will not watch it. They'll watch their own team, and games from the league their team is in. If they watch any other football, they'll tune in to the NFL.

Yeah there’s lots of fans who will watch any big matchup. You’re really under estimating the sports betting aspect of it. In the midwest, I would bet college football is the most heavily bet sport and it sure isn’t just people betting on Iowa and Iowa St.

The G-League comparison is extremely dumb. College football has established brands, most of who are now in the B1G and SEC, that draw in large amounts of casual fans.

 

[CoKane]

View attachment 100353

Wish i could like this 509 times. Love the incredibles

 

[CyJack13]

LA-based writer Bill Plaschke says every Saturday will be like a Rose Bowl, with those USC-Michigan and UCLA-Ohio State games! Basketball season will be lit, too, with a weekend of UCLA-Indiana and UCLA-Michigan State on the docket!

As usual, the media fanboys conveniently forget to mention the Friday night USC at Rutgers BTN football matchup, or UCLA taking on the basketball powerhouse that is Northwestern on a Tuesday night.

Or maybe they realize they already had those type of matchups in their current conference too. Who’s getting excited for a UCLA Oregon St basketball game on a random Thursday? Or a USC Washington St football game. Of course they will still have some less than exciting matchups but now they will have a whole lot more big name programs to compete against too.

 

[cyfanatic]

Or maybe they realize they already had those type of matchups in their current conference too. Who’s getting excited for a UCLA Oregon St basketball game on a random Thursday? Or a USC Washington St football game. Of course they will still have some less than exciting matchups but now they will have a whole lot more big name programs to compete against too.

I get what you are saying and there is cetainly some truth there! But at the same time UCLA isn't going to be playing Michigan and Ohio State every week or even every year. I would guess the type of UCLA basketball fan who gets up for a UCLA/Oregon State basketball game is the same type of fan who gets up for an Iowa State/Kansas State basketball game on a Thursday night. Outside of that type of fan I doubt anyone is "excited" by those types of games. Might be good games but that is why college sports were so good for so long...the regional aspects of it.

 

[exCyDing]

I think the Super Conference will eventually fail, but it’s going to be awhile. Here’s how I see it playing out.

After the PAC situation sorts itself, we’re probably in the quiet period of realignment. The Big-10 will take what they want from the PAC. The Big-10 and SEC have taken all they want from the Big 12. The ACC is largely off the table for the next 8-10 years by contract and a buyout at this point would be insanely expensive.

The ACC paid out something like $40m per team last year. Buying out 14 years at that would be well over $500m per school. Maybe you could get that down a bit, but then again the rights for a given school would be worth well more than that otherwise it wouldn’t be worth discussing. If the money isn’t there between donors and network interest to get OUT into the SEC a couple years early, there’s no reason to expect 2-3x that amount would be available for a different school.

The last whale out there is ND, but they’re semi-tied to the ACC through the end of the ‘20s. At that time, the ACC GOR might look a lot more economical and I’d think the SEC and Big-10 will take what they want from the ACC. They’ll give ND the option to either join up or get frozen out and nobody from the SEC or Big 10 will schedule them.

Once all the desirable big names are in the P2, they’ll both get a monster media deal. But interest in the bottom half teams will start to wane as they’re perennially sub-500. Those teams won’t carry their weight and the top half of the P2 will break off for a P1. I’ll give them one media deal to figure this out before the top teams leave the SEC and Big-10 for a new joint conference.

The ACC/Big 12/PAC will still be around in some capacity, doing just fine on their own albeit at significantly less revenue. With the Big 10 and SEC names still available and with numerous spots available in each, there will be another top-to-bottom realignment to re-establish historical rivalries and more regionally-oriented conferences once again.

I’m short, we’ll be back to about where we were in 2000 (minus most of the blue bloods) by about 2045.