Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[cyfanatic]

Why watch college football? Because you're a fan of a team? I'm not sure about you, but most people I know who watch college football do it because they are a fan of a team, or it's their alma mater and they'll turn it on every once in a while, or their friends are fans and they'll join in to watch. For example, NDSU alums and fans watch FCS football but they don't tune in to FBS.

I know of very few people who are like "Oh yeah, this is the top matchup in college football so I guess I'll just watch it even though I'm not a fan of any team in the league." The people who do things like that are hardcore sports junkies.
It would be sort of like saying that people who are casual fans of the basketball would tune in to a top matchup in the G-League just for fun because it's the second best level of basketball. Not going to happen.

If a P2 league forms, people who have no association to the teams in it will not watch it. They'll watch their own team, and games from the league their team is in. If they watch any other football, they'll tune in to the NFL.

If there comes a time when college football is all about the P2 leagues...and Iowa State is not a part of those P2 leagues...will Iowa State be able to charge prices for games the same as Iowa will if Iowa is in the P2? Will Iowa State be able to pay coaches the same as Iowa? Market themselves the same as Iowa? There certainly will be a difference in revenue between those two schools if that happens. Just hope that difference isn't as predominant as the difference is now between say an Iowa State and a UNI type situation. Not saying Iowa State could become UNI...but there is a clear difference in those two programs based on their affiliations. If a clear difference occurs between the P2 and whatever we find ourselves in...it will show up. Will 50000 people want to continue packing the Jack under those circumstances? My heart says "I hope so"...but in reality I just don't know.

To be clear, this isn't about a competition between Iowa State, Iowa and UNI...just used those schools because we live in a space where we can potentially see as much of a direct impact of what is happening as any other state that has passionate college football fans.

 

[AlaCyclone]

Agreed.

I watch the NFL for three reasons.


1) I root for “my team”
2) I enjoy watching regional rivalries with a storied past
3) I know the players and largely associate them with their team.

These last two reasons are linked. I am not a fan of KC or the Raiders but I watch because of the history and I recognize players.

Even before the transfer portal college struggles for the average fan to know the players. I can tell you the starting QB for teams in the NFL but would struggle to tell you the starters in even the Big 12.

I think ultimately the super conferences will erode viewership not enhance it.

If I am an example, the Big Mules are making a huge mistake. I was born and raised on Alabama Football, but I am completely done with them and the rest of the SEC. Throw the B1G in with that lot too. I've seen them all in person - many of them at their own place, but those days are done.

I'll always follow and go to Iowa State games regardless of their neighborhood. So, I'm no longer worried about where ISU falls in all of this. The new Big Xii (once OU and Texas leave) can remain stable, the Big Xii can add Pac refugees, or the Big Xii can dissolve. Doesn't matter to me either way.

Let's Go State!

 

[cyfanatic]

Well the internet streaming didn't exist back in 61. So what stops them from having games on paramount or peacock on a Saturday. Since that's technically not broadcast.

Besides...laws can be interpreted/changed over time. And the NFL has certain methods of getting the interpretations of law to work in their favor. Expectations from 1961 in terms of entertainment avenues is ancient and realistically should be updated.

 

[Gorm]

Well the internet streaming didn't exist back in 61. So what stops them from having games on paramount or peacock on a Saturday. Since that's technically not broadcast.

LMAO. The Anti-trust exemption is whats keeping the NFL stable vs what is happening with the college football world at the moment.

No NFL teams want that removed. Thus, they won't put themselves in a situation where a court is going to rule they are in violation of that act.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

duplicate

 

[Die4Cy]

If there comes a time when college football is all about the P2 leagues...and Iowa State is not a part of those P2 leagues...will Iowa State be able to charge prices for games the same as Iowa will if Iowa is in the P2? Will Iowa State be able to pay coaches the same as Iowa? Market themselves the same as Iowa? There certainly will be a difference in revenue between those two schools if that happens. Just hope that difference isn't as predominant as the difference is now between say an Iowa State and a UNI type situation. Not saying Iowa State could become UNI...but there is a clear difference in those two programs based on their affiliations. If a clear difference occurs between the P2 and whatever we find ourselves in...it will show up. Will 50000 people want to continue packing the Jack under those circumstances? My heart says "I hope so"...but in reality I just don't know.

To be clear, this isn't about a competition between Iowa State, Iowa and UNI...just used those schools because we live in a space where we can potentially see as much of a direct impact of what is happening as any other state that has passionate college football fans.

If there is a legitimate path to play for a CFB playoff spot...yes.

This Two Leagues of Champions bull the talking heads are pushing will not bear out. This is just the next step in the collapse of the sport.

 

[CoKane]

Question I think needs to be answered is how many teams is too many. Like sure 20-24 sounds fantastic but when do you hit diminishing returns?

I know the theory is that once it happens you start kicking teams out. I think you'd have to vote on that. If you're Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, Rutgers, Iowa, or Maryland, are you really just gonna tell Northwestern to eat **** on the way out? Someones gotta be the next team on the cutline.

Same for the Mississippis, Missouri, and South Carolina. You can boot Vandy if you want to but what happens if someone pops off in the Big 12 or ACC? Then you're the next gone.

There's a lot of angles to all of this that just aren't explored yet.

 

[AlaCyclone]

Okay, noon kickoff in Piscataway, then.

It’s less about the time than the opponent. The cheerleaders for realignment think every game will be a Game Of The Week with USC, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan … they’ve gotta play the bottom of the conference, too. They always skip over that part.

And the flip side is also annoying with Texas and OU acting like there is no other good content or teams in the Big Xii and USC and UCLA now acting like their is not other good content or teams in the Pac. Both sides are baloney. Four overblown egos about to learn that the grass is not always greener on the other side of the fence.

The L.A. Teams leaving is much, much worse in my opinion, as the rvivalries they both have with the Bay Area Teams are awesome. I've been to all of those potential matchups in football, and it is always a GREAT CFB day regardless of which of the Cali-Pac 4 play or in which stadium. Of the four, I like the Cal Bears the best, so I hope Cal can land softly.

 

[cyfanatic]

If there is a legitimate path to play for a CFB playoff spot...yes.

This Two Leagues of Champions bull the talking heads are pushing will not bear out. This is just the next step in the collapse of the sport.

Not being argumentative...honestly curious and wondering myself. What does a "legitimate path" look like for a non-P2 league? Win the league and your in? Happen to win your league but have to be dominant in doing so to get in? Hope you are from a market that the powers that be think is helpful to the playoffs in a certain year? I just don't see all of the movement toward the P2 if it is going to automatically eliminate most of its membership from the playoffs via regular season performances. So...if there is an 8 team playoff then I guessing the P2 wants 6 or more of those slots. Just my feeling...

 

[AlaCyclone]

Question I think needs to be answered is how many teams is too many. Like sure 20-24 sounds fantastic but when do you hit diminishing returns?

I know the theory is that once it happens you start kicking teams out. I think you'd have to vote on that. If you're Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois, Rutgers, Iowa, or Maryland, are you really just gonna tell Northwestern to eat **** on the way out? Someones gotta be the next team on the cutline.

Same for the Mississippis, Missouri, and South Carolina. You can boot Vandy if you want to but what happens if someone pops off in the Big 12 or ACC? Then you're the next gone.

There's a lot of angles to all of this that just aren't explored yet.

I can definitely see a day when the Mississippi schools are ripe for the Big Xii. They would be foolish to give up their current payday voluntarily, but if it happens - the Big Xii should send a welcoming committee.

 

[StPaulCyclone]

I don't see the Big12 getting the money that is talked about for the P2 with the population we have. But, on the other hand, I also don't see how this money continues to increase in the P2 either. According to the link below, the power 5 currently get around $1.4B annually combined. Yet talking heads keep saying that the Big10 could see those types of numbers by themselves. So for you to have that kind of money also go to the SEC, that's going to more than double the TV payouts from what they are today. That means more money from consumers at the same time you're removing interest from a good portion of your viewing audience. Doesn't seem like a recipe for success. So I see the fall of these TV deals being just as likely as the fall of the lower conferences.

Here’s a look at all the current conference TV deals

While changes are coming, here are the conference TV deals for each of the 10 leagues, for Notre Dame and for the College Football Playoff.

www.on3.com

I assume they hope that a greater focus on the biggest “brands” and paying non”P2” less will get it done, but the numbers still seem to be a stretch.

 

[Trice]

I don't see the Big12 getting the money that is talked about for the P2 with the population we have. But, on the other hand, I also don't see how this money continues to increase in the P2 either. According to the link below, the power 5 currently get around $1.4B annually combined. Yet talking heads keep saying that the Big10 could see those types of numbers by themselves. So for you to have that kind of money also go to the SEC, that's going to more than double the TV payouts from what they are today. That means more money from consumers at the same time you're removing interest from a good portion of your viewing audience. Doesn't seem like a recipe for success. So I see the fall of these TV deals being just as likely as the fall of the lower conferences.

Here’s a look at all the current conference TV deals

While changes are coming, here are the conference TV deals for each of the 10 leagues, for Notre Dame and for the College Football Playoff.

www.on3.com

The networks are taking a calculated risk that the eyeballs and ad dollars they gain by more frequent marquee matchups will outweigh the loss of viewership from casual fans of schools like ISU who are on the outside looking in. They're gambling that fans like us are bluffing when we say that we will turn away from the sport.

And they might be right. College fans are super loyal to their schools. If our future TV payouts don't crater entirely and we still have a path to the playoff - both are those are very big 'ifs', but for the sake of argument assume they happen - most of us will probably talk ourselves into sticking around. And if we're going to watch our team, we're probably going to watch other teams too.

 

[cyfanatic]

I can definitely see a day when the Mississippi schools are ripe for the Big Xii. They would be foolish to give up their current payday voluntarily, but if it happens - the Big Xii should send a welcoming committee.

I would guess if that happens it will include another revolutionary movement that would shake the likes of the Purdue/Indiana/Illinois/Iowa type schools out of the system as well. It would take a ton of discontent from a fanbase for an athletic department to voluntarily leave that payday regardless of the outcome. UNLESS...somehow, someway a league such as the Big 12 can reach the same type level of pay for its members.

 

[Rods79]

LA-based writer Bill Plaschke says every Saturday will be like a Rose Bowl, with those USC-Michigan and UCLA-Ohio State games! Basketball season will be lit, too, with a weekend of UCLA-Indiana and UCLA-Michigan State on the docket!

As usual, the media fanboys conveniently forget to mention the Friday night USC at Rutgers BTN football matchup, or UCLA taking on the basketball powerhouse that is Northwestern on a Tuesday night.

This…another reason I don’t think the B1G is necessarily looking to add more PAC teams…they got their rose bowl. There’s not a lot of history with the B1G and UO/UW (not that I think that is a huge factor holding them back, but I do think it comes into play when you’re talking about dollars added and matchup marketing potential).

 

[cyclonemagic]

I don’t know how I feel about Gee opening his mouth again. ‘Member when he had to resign from Ohio State after disparaging nearly every other institution outside the B1G during the last bout of realignment discussion?…I ‘member.

While president of Ohio State University, Gordon Gee made many gaffes which ultimately got him fired. There is one statement he made that stands out during this current CFB realignment process. Gee (a Morman) said Notre Dame was never invited to join the Big Ten because "you just can't trust those damn Catholics."

 

[cyfanatic]

This…another reason I don’t think the B1G is necessarily looking to add more PAC teams…they got their rose bowl. There’s not a lot of history with the B1G and UO/UW (not that I think that is a huge factor holding them back, but I do think it comes into play when you’re talking about dollars added and matchup marketing potential).

It is funny...the Rose Bowl (stadium) is certainly historic...but that is the nicest thing you can say about that place right now! I bet if you asked every Big 10 football player if they would rather take a trip to LA to play a regular season game in the Rose Bowl or the Rams "new" stadium...it would be answered with a preference of the Rams stadium by 95%+ of the players. Probably the same with the Colesium! Those two stadiums are archaic in relation to a modern stadium. LA fans like bells and whistles (which is fine)...so bringing Maryland out to play UCLA in the Rose Bowl doesn't move the meter much at all for that area!

 

[cyclonemagic]

Okay, noon kickoff in Piscataway, then.

It’s less about the time than the opponent. The cheerleaders for realignment think every game will be a Game Of The Week with USC, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan … they’ve gotta play the bottom of the conference, too. They always skip over that part.

USC and UCLA have not had great football programs in recent years. So, it's not guaranteed that new Big Ten match-ups will be TV blockbusters. There are a lot of half-empty football stadiums in those bottom-of-the-conference Big Ten games, which is frustrating when ISU fans fill Jack Trice each game.

 

[Rods79]

It is funny...the Rose Bowl (stadium) is certainly historic...but that is the nicest thing you can say about that place right now! I bet if you asked every Big 10 football player if they would rather take a trip to LA to play a regular season game in the Rose Bowl or the Rams "new" stadium...it would be answered with a preference of the Rams stadium by 95%+ of the players. Probably the same with the Colesium! Those two stadiums are archaic in relation to a modern stadium. LA fans like bells and whistles (which is fine)...so bringing Maryland out to play UCLA in the Rose Bowl doesn't move the meter much at all for that area!

I agree. It wasn’t exactly on the stadium specifically, more the whole package with the history around the whole event and the teams in play. The Rose Bowl hold mythic status in every B1G team’s/fans’s head.

 

[isucy86]

An SEC “expert” brought up an interesting point on the radio yesterday:

He questioned why the SEC would want to expand. He said unless a Clemson or Florida State can bring in more revenue than the current anticipated per team payout you only dilute the remaining teams revenue AND make it easier for a competitor to compete.

Norte Dame is really the only school that is a needle mover.

My (admittedly optimistic) hope:

Notre Dame figures they can still get more money flying solo.

Big 10 and SEC realize the expert is right and stop expanding.

The Big 12 grabs Oregon, Washington and MAYBE two others.

Texas and Ohio State start getting greedy and push for unequal shares.

The BiG 12(16) becomes the best conference as the “big boys“ implode.

The SEC expert is correct on new schools not diluting the per school payouts. That's nothing inciteful, it's been the core of realignment for the last decade, except the Big12's adds last summer.

The SEC expert's analysis is wrong if he says there are no ACC schools which are accretive to SEC average school earnings. I'd bet there are 3-4 ACC schools that would easily grow SEC per school revenue and a couple that would break even.

One point he is missing is that half the ACC teams would be accretive compared to the bottom 3-4 in the current SEC (aka Vanderbilt, Miss State).

 

[CoKane]

I would guess if that happens it will include another revolutionary movement that would shake the likes of the Purdue/Indiana/Illinois/Iowa type schools out of the system as well. It would take a ton of discontent from a fanbase for an athletic department to voluntarily leave that payday regardless of the outcome. UNLESS...somehow, someway a league such as the Big 12 can reach the same type level of pay for its members.

I think that even if you can get somewhat close you might be good to go there. Someone in the mid tier of the top 2 is going to fall off. If a Wisconsin, Michigan State, or Penn State just gets buried and fan support starts to fall off I think of you're the Big 12 you could reach out and see if being more competitive and trying to get donations and fans back could be enough to have them jump ship.

I also get the feeling(unlikely though) that if teams do feel threatened to get kicked out or get ignored for newer adds and bigger names they could just say **** this and break off to do their own thing

Overall i just cant see the Big 10 and SEC swallowing everything up and there being no counter actions or reactions because of it. Someone's gonna suck that doesn't like it and someones going to get pissed off eventually