Admittedly, I dont know a ton about the insurance industry other than its a primarily state regulated industry and is driven by actuarial science.
No about inflation has been a driver in increased premiums but one would think inflation is something easily modeled by acturaries.
Something else is driving enough uncertainty in their modeling for insurance companies to pull from entire markets.
At one point (probably like 7 years ago, before Derecho), I recall having like 3-5 "1 in 100 year" type events in a 15-20 year period in a number of midwest states. A lot of other bigger storms that aren't tornadoes (1-2 inch hails, 50mph winds taking off older roofs/siding, replacement cost on roof, etc) add up pretty quickly, too. Bigger carriers could absorb some of these types of losses and spread it out over few years (with aggressive rate increases), but smaller regional heavy carriers are looking to take 25-30% per year over 5+ years to get profitable again and potentially risk pricing out most of their current policies out of the market.
There was some sort of a joke that predictive models are only as good as the actual events carry out so a hardcoded model could be technically "more accurate" than a complex one, but clearly the models did not contemplate having 1 in 100 year events to be more like 1 in 10 or 1 in 5 year events. Most states won't let you file these models anyways but it's tough when your actuarial rate need based on actual losses is 60%+ and rapidly increasing, and you're *only* taking a 20% rate, only to come back next year and you've only made 10pt improvement.
Just my personal opinion, but over a 5 year period you'll probably end up paying something similar relative to the coverage you have with just about any carrier. Some companies are reducing coverages/raising deductibles, some are staying ahead of the rate and taking steady (but higher) rate increases, or some are behind the rate and will have to take aggressive rates eventually or potentially pull out completely from the market.
